Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Dylan Bundy who had a rough outing and only managed to get us 9.25 DKFP. Our infielder free square and the free square of the night was Miguel Cabrera who managed to get us 8 DKFP which was good enough for 2.4x value. Our outfielder free square was Max Kepler who struggled at the plate and didn’t manage to do anything.
Tonight
We have a small 7-game slate ahead of us for tonight. On the pitching side of things, we have Chris Sale taking the mound and then a whole lot of guys who are priced roughly in the same price range. On the hitting side of things we have Coors Field and after that, there are not a lot of high implied run totals. Let’s dive into this interesting slate:
Free Squares
- Justin Verlander SP DET ($7,600)
- Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park tonight. The Tigers are currently -135 favorites and the Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.42 runs. Taking a look at Verlander’s game log he has been all over the place this year. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers: .316 wOBA given up to lefties, .336 wOBA given up to righties, 20.7 K%, 11.1 BB%, .298 BABIP, 38.2 Hard%, 4.94 SIERA, and a 5.24 SIERA. He will be facing the Tampa Bay Rays who have been averaging right around 4.75 runs per game. They have the following ranks against right-handed pitching on the season: 9th in BB%, 2nd in K%, .810 OPS, 1st in ISO, 5th in wOBA, and 3rd in wRC+. There is no doubt about it this Rays team can really hit the ball. The one stat that does stick out is how they are second in K%. There are not a whole lot of pitching options I like on the main slate and while Verlander is risky I also think he provides the best upside at the SP2 position tonight.
- Miguel Cabrera 1B DET ($3,400)
- Going to back to the well with our infielder free square. Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers will take on the Rays and pitcher Alex Cobb at home tonight. The Tigers currently have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.08 runs. Cabrera started off the season slow but has still posted some solid advanced numbers. Let’s take a look at his numbers vs. righties this season: 12.2 BB%, 19.2 K%, .774 OPS, .162 ISO, .297 BABIP, .330 wOBA, 104 wRC+, and a 44.0 Hard%. He will be facing Alex Cobb who has the following numbers vs. right-handed bats on the season: .342 wOBA, 1.25 HR/9, 16.6 K%, 9.4 BB%, and a 4.06 xFIP. Vegas has a high implied run total for the Tigers tonight and I think Miggy will have a lot of fantasy production opportunities. His price has really not budged and for the player, he is I think $3,400 is simply too cheap.
- Dexter Fowler OF STL ($3,800)
- Dexter Fowler and the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Zach Davies tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cards have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.88 runs. Fowler has had a pretty decent season in his first year in a Cardinals uniform. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season: 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, .805 OPS, .234 ISO, .262 BABIP, .340 wOBA, 110 wRC+, and a 35.3 Hard%. Fowler has solid numbers vs. righties this season. He will be facing Zach Davies who has the following numbers vs. left-handed batters on the year: .359 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, 16.7 K%, 9.9 BB%, 5.05 xFIP, and a 31.0 Hard%. Davies and his 5.05 xFIP is definitely a guy we can target with some lefty bats. I think Fowler is still relatively cheap considering the matchup tonight and is a great one-off play in the outfield.
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Free Square of the Night
The main slate is pretty rough tonight, but I think I narrowed down some guys and some spots we can target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Tigers infielder Miguel Cabrera tonight! Good luck Army!
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