Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
Hope everyone had a great weekend as we start off the MLB DFS week with a short 6 games slate for Monday night. On the pitching side of things tonight we have Chris Sale taking the mound along with two other guys who are priced over 10k. On the hitting side of things, the Yankees lead the way with the highest implied run total and it is pretty even after that. Let’s dive into this short slate:
Free Squares
- Jeff Samardzija SP SFG ($8,400)
- Jeff Samardzija and the San Francisco Giants will take on the Colorado Rockies at home at AT&T Park tonight. The Giants are currently -132 favorites and the Rockies have an implied run total of 3.57 runs. Samardzija has had quite the up and down year with some good pitching stretch mixed in with a couple bumps in the road. He has the following advanced numbers: .335 wOBA given up to righties, .305 wOBA given up to lefties, 27.7 K%, 3.2 BB%, .327 BABIP, 28.6 Hard%, 3.16 SIERA, and a 3.01 xFIP. Despite a couple of bumps in the road, he has posted solid advanced numbers. He will have a matchup against the Rockies tonight who have been averaging 5.14 runs per game. They have the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season: 21st in BB%, 15th in K%, 12th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 12th in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+. I would like to see a little bit higher K%, but I think Samardzija can keep this Rockies team in check tonight at a pitcher friendly park in AT&T tonight. The Rockies have one of the lowest run totals of the night which is good news for Samardzija who is affordable in a great matchup tonight.
- Tim Anderson SS CHW ($3,000)
- Tim Anderson and the Chicago White Sox will take on the New York Yankees and pitcher Jordan Montgomery tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.72 runs. Tim Anderson has gone a bit overlooked this year as he plays on the White Sox but has been having a pretty decent year vs. left-handed pitching this season. Let’s take a look at those numbers vs. lefties: 2.6 BB%, 26.0 K%, .769 OPS, .068 ISO, .463 BABIP, .335 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and a 37.0 Hard%. He will be taking on pitcher Jordan Montgomery tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: .301 wOBA, 23.5 K%, 8.5 BB%, .307 BABIP, 4.40 xFIP, and a 28.1 Hard%. Montgomery has done okay this year against lefties, but I really like the matchup for Andeson tonight. He will most likely be batting lead-off at a very affordable price in a solid matchup tonight.
- Brandon Belt 1B/OF SFG ($3,600)
- Brandon Belt and the San Francisco Giants will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher German Marquez tonight at AT&T Park. The Giants have an implied run total of 3.93 runs. Belt had just come off a 5 game stretch in which he scored 11+ DKFP in each game. He has the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching this season: 16.2 BB%, 21.8 K%, .857 OPS, .249 ISO, .365 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and a 38.8 Hard%. He has very solid numbers against right-handed pitching. He will be taking on German Marquez who has the following numbers vs. left-handed bats this season: .334 wOBA, 22.7 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.62 WHIP, 4.41 xFIP, and a 36.8 Hard%. German isn’t terrible but he has been hit pretty hard this season. Belt is always a guy I like playing due to his affordability and multi-position eligibility. Expect him to bat in the middle of the order tonight and I think he has a solid matchup.
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Free Square of the Night
Kind of a small slate to start off the week but hopefully, I narrowed down some guys in good spots tonight to help with roster construction We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Giants pitcherJeff Samardzija tonight! Good luck Army!
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