Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
Hope everyone had a great weekend but we get back on the grind with the free squares with a solid 11-game slate. On the pitching side of things, we have Clayton Kershaw going with two other aces who are priced above 10k. On the hitting side of things, we have a lot of teams with similar implied totals with no one that far head of the pack. Let’s dive into this Monday slate:
Free Squares
- Jake Odorizzi SP TB ($7,400)
- Jake Odorizzi and the Tampa Bay Rays will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds at Tropicana Field tonight. The Rays are currently -146 favorites and the Reds have an implied total sitting at right around 4.11 runs. Odorizzi has had a pretty up and down year with some solid starts mixed up with some not so hot starts. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers to get a more clear pitcher of Odorizzi: .327 wOBA given up to lefties, .307 wOBA given up to righties, 21.2 K%, 8.1 BB%, .247 BABIP, 35.0 Hard%, 4.48 SIERA, and a 4.52 xFIP. He will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds who have been averaging 4.88 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitching this season: 18th BB%, 17th in K%, 7th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 6th in wOBA, 12th in wRC+. They are a decent hitting team against righties, but I do not mind the matchup tonight for Odorizzi. There are not a lot of great SP2 options on the slate today and Odorizzi is my favorite of the bunch.
- Evan Longoria 3B TB ($3,500)
- In the same game, we have the Tampa Bay Rays hitters taking on Scott Feldman and the Cincinnati Reds at Tropicana Field tonight. The Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.89 runs. Longoria has had a pretty solid year thus far and has been solid against righties. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers vs. righties so far this season: 6.2 BB%, 16.1 K%, .760 OPS, .160 ISO, .310 BABIP, .324 wOBA, and a 104 wRC+. He also has some history against Feldman and has 16 AB’s, .278 AVG, 1 HR, and a .714 SLG. On the year as whole Feldman has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: .312 wOBA, 19.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, .317 BABIP, 4.13 xFIP, and a 27.2 Hard%. Feldman doesn’t have horrible numbers, but I like the spot the Rays and Longoria are in tonight. Judging by the Vegas total I think the Rays are going to put up a decent number on Feldman tonight which should be good news for Longoria who is slated in the heart of the Rays order
- Brandon Belt 1B/OF SFG ($3,600)
- Brandon Belt and the San Francisco Giants will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher R.A. Dickey tonight at SunTrust Park. The Giants have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.75 runs tonight. Belt has been having a streaky season and is a bit of a cold streak as of late. I think tonight is the night he gets back on track with a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey. Belt has the following numbers vs. righties on the season: 16.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .836 OPS, .233 ISO, .358 wOBA, 125 wRC+, and a 37.2 Hard%. He has been crushing righties this season. He gets a great matchup against R.A. Dickey tonight who has been struggling against lefties this season: .351 wOBA, 1.54 HR/9, 10.1 K%, 9.5 BB%, 5.66 xFIP, and a 25.6 Hard%. This is a great matchup for Belt and the whole entire Giants team tonight as Dickey has been awful this season. I love Belt as you can use him in either the infield or outfield and he is at a great price for his upside tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Going to be an interesting slate tonight as I think people are going to be all over the place when it comes to bats. Hopefully, I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Giants utility man Brandon Belt tonight! Good luck Army!
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