Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
For our pitcher free square, re we had David Price who had a really solid outing last night in which he netted 24.15 which was good enough for 3.1x value. Moving on to the infield we had Kendrys Morales who got blanked along with rest of the Blue Jays last night. Our outfielder was Manuel Margot who ended up having a really solid game netting us 17 DKFP which was good enough for 5.5x value!
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Tonight
We have a huge 15 game slate ahead of for tonight with tons of tournaments across the industry tonight. On the pitching side of things, we have 3 guys who are priced over 10k with Jacob DeGrom as the most expensive guy tonight. On the hitting side of things we do not have many teams with very high implied run totals tonight. There is not one team who is really leading the pack tonight as it is pretty even across the board. Let’s dive into this huge slate:
Free Squares
- Lance McCullers SP HOU ($8,800)
- Lance McCullers and the Houston Astros will take on the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park tonight. The Astros are currently -164 favorites and the Yankees have an implied run total of 3.55 runs. McCullers has been having a dominant season so far this year and I think he is priced too low tonight even at $8,800. He has the following advanced numbers: .251 wOBA given up to lefties, .268 wOBA given up to righties, 29.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, .281 BABIP, 26.3 Hard%, 2.94 SIERA, and a 2.64 xFIP. He has quite the impressive stat line on the year. He will be taking on the Yankees tonight who have the following ranks against right-handed pitching so far this season: 2nd in BB%, 15th in K%, 2nd in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 2nd in wOBA, and 2nd in wRC+. We obviously know the Yankees are one of the bets hitting teams in baseball. They are a bit banged up though and I think McCullers is a good enough pitcher where he can keep them in check tonight. The implied run total from Vegas seems to imply that as well. I think he is simply too cheap for his upside tonight.
- Jason Kipnis 2B CLE ($3,800)
- Jason Kipnis and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Detroit Tigers and pitcher Anibal Sanchez tonight at Comerica Park. The Indians have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.39 runs. Kipnis is having a decent year and I love the matchup for him tonight against the struggling Anibal Sanchez. Kipnis has the following numbers against righties this season: 19.5 K%, 6.5 BB%, .707 OPS, .168 ISO, .278 BABIP, .303 wOBA, 85 wRC+ and a 31.6 Hard%. He will be facing Anibal Sanchez who has the following numbers against lefties on the year: .363 wOBA, 1.84 HR/9, 16.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 5.59 xFIP, and a 31.4 Hard%. This is a great matchup for all the Indians tonight including Kipnis. There may be a bit of a weather concern in this game so keep an eye on the radar on this one. In saying that I love Kipnis as a one off and love an Indians stack with him in it tonight.
- Matt Olson OF OAK ($2,300)
- Matt Olson and the Oakland Athletics will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Mike Foltynewicz at the O.co Coliseum tonight. Olson and the Athletics have an implied run total of 4.68 runs. Olson has only played in a handful of games this season but he has had some decent success. We don’t have a ton of data on Olson in the big leagues yet but just know he is a guy who can hit for a ton of power. He will be facing Mike Foltynewicz who has the following numbers vs. lefties on the season: .389 wOBA, 1.60 HR/9, 16.5 K%, 9.8 BB%, 5.54 xFIP, and a 35.0 Hard%. This is a great matchup for the young slugger tonight. He is absolutely dirt cheap tonight and brings HR upside. Lock him in the outfield as a one off and you will have a lot of roster flexibility.
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Free Square of the Night
Huge slate tonight which is absolutely perfect for tournaments as expect ownership to be pretty spread out tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Indians infielder Jason Kipnis tonight! Good luck Army!
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