Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Justin Verlander who managed to net 17.15 DKFP which was good enough for right around 2.3x value. For our infielder free square, we had Miguel Cabrera who had a terrific night by getting us 23 DKFP which was good enough for 6.8x value! Last but not least was our outfielder free square Dexter Fowler who also had a great performance by managing to net us 19 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5x value!
Tonight
After a small slate yesterday we have a monster 15-game slate ahead of us for tonight. On the pitching side of things, we have a couple of high-priced aces going led by Max Scherzer. On the hitting side of things we have Coors Field in play and after that, the implied run totals are pretty even across the board. Let’s dive into this huge slate
Free Squares
- Junior Guerra SP MIL ($6,200)
- Junior Guerra and the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the San Diego Padres tonight at Miller Park. The Brewers are currently -158 favorites and the Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.43 runs. Guerra has thrown in 5 outings this season with two solid performances and three not so great performances. Let’s take a look at his advanced numbers so far this year: .236 wOBA given up to lefties, .367 wOBA given up to righties, 16.5 K%, 11.9 BB%, .219 BABIP, 28.6 Hard%, 5.46 SIERA, and a 5.42 xFIP. Not the greatest numbers but we have a small sample size for the year and I think we will see those numbers go down. Good news for Guerra is that he gets to take on the San Diego Padres tonight who have the following ranks against right-handed pitching: 26th in BB%, 1st in K%, 29th in OPS, 29th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. This is a great matchup for Guerra tonight and I think he can rack up a decent number of K’s and limit the damage against a terrible Padres team. I love locking him in at the SP2 position on DraftKings tonight.
- Carlos Santana 1B CLE ($3,200)
- Carlos Santana and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Nik Turley tonight at Target Field. The Indians currently have an implied run total sitting at 5.49 runs. Santana is having a decent year but has been a bit cold as of late. Santana has been struggling against lefties this season, but I think we will see him return to his numbers for 2016: 10.7 BB%, 10.2 K%, .742 ISO, .128 ISO, .325 wOBA, 102 wRC+, and a 29.2 Hard%. He will be facing Nik Turley who we don’t have a lot of big league data on other than he threw in one game this season and he got roughed up a bit. He is a guy who has bounced around the minors for quite awhile. Vegas predicts a big outing for the Indians tonight which should mean a lot of fantasy opportunities for Santana. His price is getting really cheap and I think he makes a great one off tonight and I like an Indians stack tonight.
- Hunter Pence OF SFG ($3,900)
- Hunter Pence and the San Francisco Giants will be taking on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Antonio Senzatela at Coors Field tonight. The Giants have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.67 runs. Pence has had a pretty up and down season so far. He has the following advanced numbers against right-handed pitching this season: 4.2 BB%, 23.7 K%, .571 OPS, .064 ISO, .250 wOBA, and a 54 wRC+. Not the greatest numbers in the world but he gets to play in Coors tonight and has a decent matchup. He will be facing Antonio Senzatela who has the following numbers against righties so far this year: .289 wOBA, .73 HR/9, 20.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 4.01 xFIP, and a 26.2 Hard%. He has been okay this year but I expect a big night from the Giants tonight. Vegas has this as one of the highest implied totals of the night and you are going to want some exposure. I think Pence is a very affordable bat in the game tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Huge slate tonight and one that I think is perfect for tournaments. Hopefully, I narrowed down some guys to help start your research. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Brewers pitcher Junior Guerra tonight! Good luck Army!
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