Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Juggling the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
Pitcher of the Day
Amir Garrett, SF@CIN, $6,700 FD / $7,100 DK
There are several good pitching options today which is why I think Amir Garrett could be a steal. Clayton Kershaw is an obvious standout choice and will most likely carry heavier ownership. Savvy owners look for the less popular options with massive upside for a gpp. This is where Amir Garrett comes swooping in to save the day. Garrett has been a pleasant surprise to start the season for the Reds. He matches up well against the Giants who have been wretched against left-handed pitchers. On the season, the Giants have a .283 wOBA against lefties (25th out of 30) and a .109 ISO (25th out of 30). They neither hit for power or contact, they’re simply weak against lefties. The Giants strikeout against lefties 20.9% of the time (21st out of 30) and their 75 wRC+ score is the sixth worse in Major League Baseball. Garrett has allowed opposing hitters to make hard contact 39.3% of the time this season but that is offset by the fact that the Giants only make hard contact 29.6% of the time. He has an exceptional ground ball rating of 50.6% and with the weak hitting Giants he has a decent chance of keeping the ball on the ground. Amir Garrett is a fantastic SP2 on Draftkings and a phenomenal gpp option on Fanduel.
Hitter of the Day
Yasmany Tomas, (R) OF, ARI@COL, $4,200 FD / $4,700 DK
2016 vs Lefty Splits – .460 wOBA, .326 ISO, 46.9% Hard Hit
2017 vs Lefty Splits – .257 wOBA, .152 ISO, 42.1% Hard Hit
I couldn’t be happier that Yasmany did poorly last night in game one of the series vs. the Rockies. The Diamondbacks scored six runs and Yasmany finished 0-for-3 with a walk, not what you want when paying for him with his elevated Coors Field pricing. My happiness stems from the fact that he will carry lower ownership today. People who get burned by someone in a good spot have a tough time coming back to the well. He is in a bit of a dry spell as of late, going 0-for-9 over the past four games. He faces a left-handed hitter today, Tyler Anderson, who has been shaky at best. Yasmany obliterated lefties last season and although he has started slowly this season he still is batting 5th in the lineup and has the opportunity to turn it around. Coors Field, solid splits, batting 5th on a team with a 5.6 project run total, and lower ownership are all recipes for success in my book. Are there other bats today with higher floors and great match-ups? Yes, absolutely, this is an ownership gpp play. That being said, Yasmany has an incredibly high ceiling that he hasn’t shown in awhile and I suspect people have forgotten. It’s time to jump aboard and be a day early rather than a day late.
Stack of the Day
Baltimore Orioles, CWS@BAL, 5.4 Vegas-Implied Runs, 12 MPH wind blowing out towards right field.
Stacked Splits vs. Right-Handed Pitchers in 2017
Seth Smith (L) OF – .400 wOBA, .229 ISO, 32.5% HH, 91 MPH aEV
Manny Machado (R) 3B – .300 wOBA, .183 ISO, 46.2% HH, 91 MPH aEV
Chris Davis (L) 1B – .315 wOBA, .179 ISO, 31.3% HH, 93 MPH aEV
Mark Trumbo (R) OF – .261 wOBA, .125 ISO, 37% HH, 91 MPH aEV
I decided to go with the Orioles as a slightly less-owned stack than either the Rockies or Diamondbacks. A lot of people see Coors Field games and just stack them up if the price allows it. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, people won’t be paying up for really high pitching prices. This will most likely lead to elevated ownership for the Rockies and Diamondbacks bats. When scenarios like this occur it is best to attack a team or two with a strong run total outside of Coors Field without the elevated prices. The Baltimore Orioles numbers aren’t as high as one would expect when projected to score more than five runs. They have middling power and get on base an above average amount of time. They also aren’t crushing the ball and their exit velocities are hovering at the league average or over by a couple MPH. However, their bats are starting to wake up. If they continue with that today, given their matchup and the weather, they have the highest ceiling on the slate as far as stacking goes.
The Orioles will be facing Dylan Covey, a guy who currently doesn’t look like he belongs in Major League Baseball. I went back and looked at his Minor League Baseball numbers and his stats and splits are almost identical. He is just not that good and it doesn’t appear there is any reason to think he is going to turn it around while being on the road in Baltimore. Covey has pitched 21 innings this season and given up 17 earned runs. He carries a 1.76 WHIP (37 out of 97 batters have reached base safely). Covey really struggles to make bats miss which has lead to his putrid 3.43 K/9 and 8.4% strikeout rate. Opposing batters are making contact with his pitches 95% of the time and he gives up a hard hit 34% of the time. An interesting nugget that I found is that he is allowing batters to pull the ball 40.8% of the time. Chris Davis and Seth Smith are both left-handed hitters and if they pull the ball with the double-digit wind blowing out to right field, we could be looking at a couple of home runs. Speaking of Davis, his bat came alive last night and if we are about to witness one of those Chris Davis home run streaks I want to jump on early rather than late. I am not worried about Mark Trumbo and has weak numbers, the guy hit 47 home runs last season and it is only a matter of time until he catches fire. Again, do I want to be late on these guys breaking out of their funk or do I want to be early and be able to ride the tidal wave the whole way through? Fading Coors Field is not for the feint of heart but it isn’t always a suckers move. Savvy DFS players will look for the edge elsewhere and the Orioles could easily be a successful pivot.
As stated before, do we want to be late on these guys breaking out of their funk or do we want to be early and be able to ride the tidal wave the whole way through? Fading Coors Field is not for the feint of heart but it isn’t always a suckers move. Savvy DFS players will look for the edge elsewhere and the Orioles could easily be a successful pivot.
Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.
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