Welcome Monday it’s time to eat some chalk. But in doing so, it’s also time to find some value. Luckily there’s no better slate than a Kershaw slate to find both. In a lot of cases, the value plays will be used by many sort of pigeon-holing everyone into the same places.
Just understand we aren’t loading our lineups from top to bottom with the plays in here that are facing elite aces. I will mention a lot of guys going against Kershaw or Bumgarner and while they warrant consideration, putting 3 or 4 of them in your lineups might lead to disaster because the best of the best are the best for the best reasons…..they are simply the best pitchers facing the best hitters in the best league in the world and most times the best pitching can shut down the best hitting even under the best matchups and best histories you’ve ever seen in your best memory of the best games in your life.
Today’s magic word is………..BEST. Just so you know. (Hey, I have to have some fun with this, right?)
Today when you look at pitching prices on FanDuel, there aren’t a lot of true value plays out there. Everyone feels matched up about according to performance. No salaries strike me as out of line. Kershaw is the top pitcher on the slate. He is also the highest priced player. Strasburg is next and Bumgarner is third. You could quibble over which is better than the other, but they are both your 2nd and 3rd priced pitchers on the slate. So, arguing over who is better is really splitting hairs. If you reached down towards the bottom, you could tell me that you think Rubby de la Rosa is priced below his matchup and I wouldn’t argue with you. But, are we really reaching down that far? I won’t be. So, in short, pitchers aren’t really showing us any significant missteps in pricing.
Catching usually offers up some discrepancies, though. You would be correct in assuming Posey and Castillo are your two better catchers on this slate, but their prices reflect it. The way he’s been going, you would argue Posey is overpriced. But, I’m looking for value here. I’m looking for players whose pricing hasn’t adjusted enough to their matchup. Robinson Chirinos heads my list today. He draws Kevin Gausman as his pitcher and as a result projects out fairly high. He should score you some points. At a price of only $2400, you can do a lot worse today. This play actually has a lot of inherent value in it. Others in better spots than their pricing suggest would be Saltalamacchia in DET, Montero in Chicago (should he get the start), maybe Curt Casali or even Steve Clevenger in SEA should he draw the start over Ianneta. Pelfry isn’t a very good pitcher and any catcher has a shot vs him. Give me a left-handed bat against Pelfry at near minimum price and you just don’t need a lot to reach value. A hit with a runner on base likely does enough you hold your own at catcher today. I might avoid one of my favorites today in Victor Martinez as I just don’t see facing Karns to be the best option considering I can save a ton of money and pick up a catcher facing a terrible pitcher in multiple spots. I’d throw Yan Gomes in that same boat facing Smyly even at $2600. I just don’t see either being a wise use of your cap money today.
1B is always interesting being that it’s so critical to production and usually brings higher prices worth paying up for anyway. Mike Napoli, Adam Lind and even Ryan Zimmeraman lead the list here. You’d think we’d avoid Zimmerman vs Kershaw, but he’s only $2300. If you aren’t using Kershaw today, consider Zimmerman’s .250+ ISO vs LHP this season and his .802 OPS vs Kershaw specifically. While that’s not the BvP we are looking for most times and the history is small, Zimmerman is cheap as hell and when he hits a lefty, he can hit him hard. The OPS suggests he sees Kershaw well enough to consider and just might reach base a couple times or hit a double. His ISO vs Kershaw is only .053, so it’s not like he crushes Clay or anything. It’s purely a value play I felt interesting enough to mention. David Freese is another that hits lefties fairly well and has an intriguing history vs Bumgarner with a bomb. I’d be higher on him if I felt his price was low enough to present more than just a little value in it. The only overpriced 1B I’d stay away from today is Marwin Gonzalez. Sure, he’s been running a little hot lately but his price has caught his talent level in my opinion and $3500 is a lot to overcome if you aren’t hitting super consistently. Hell, Votto has been $3400 for a long time and don’t tell me you wouldn’t rather use him even against a tougher pitching matchup if you only had the two choices. That’s part of how you search for value. Ask yourself a lot of “this or that” questions.
Looking at 2B Phil Gosselin leads the way by far but plays the early game. Josh Harrison and Logan Forsythe are the first two that pop off the page at me, especially if Harrison leads off. He has a small, but solid, history vs Bumgarner and hits lefties to a tune of an .850 OPS so far this year. $2200 is just too cheap for him if you ask me. Don’t fall for either Joe Panik or Rougned Odor today. They appear overpriced for their contests. Panik doesn’t have a lot of pop and just doesn’t have the offense surrounding him going well enough to really rack up his run total for the price. Odor is great but $3400 is just reaching a bit today.
At SS, you might be looking to really save some money. The best player for that the past week or so has been CWS SS Tim Anderson. He’s leading off and still only commands a $2500 salary. We know Steven Wright is vulnerable to a few runs per outing, so this is just a stupid price. You really need to take advantage of it because the only others I see that are too cheap are Jordy Mercer vs Bumgarner and Andres Blanco on the early slate. You might look at a Jedd Gyrko but he faces Lackey and might not even get the start being that Kolten Wong (2B) is back up with the big club and Lackey is right handed. SS is looking pretty thin today and Anderson appears to be the only really viable value play. I don’t see a lot of players overpriced that would be on our radars, but I don’t see paying $3900 for a Francisco Lindor in a neutral matchup against Drew Smyly, either.
Looking to the hot corner at 3B, Luis Valbuena has been running well lately for $2800. I might avoid a Justin Turner against Stephen Strasburg but he’s been pretty hot too and is still only $3000 hitting in the heart of that order. Todd Frazier is cold of late but grabs a knuckleballer unlikely to throw flames past him. If a mistake is made, he might park one but it’s a bit of a gamble today in my opinion. I know I mentioned Martin Prado in Chin Music, but it seems he’s a bit overpriced at the moment at $3500 (I didn’t check prices before Chin Music) and with no significant power, that’s just too high for me. Jake Lamb is another that just doesn’t feel right in pricing. Nearly $4000 for him just feels kind of dumb. I’d rather chase a hotter hitter like Valbuena where my “miss” doesn’t punish me. If Goldschmidt misses (I know he’s not in the LU today), it hurts but I know the reward is there if I connect. Lamb doesn’t feel like a true game-changer to pay $3800 for in a only slightly advantageous spot.
Outfielders are typically our deepest position and we can almost always find a lot of discrepancies here. Looks like we will be needing it today, too, because the other position players were pretty lame (most slates aren’t like this). If you want the guys facing the best of the best of the best like we talked about before, you can look to names like Michael Taylor, Matt Joyce, and Trayce Thompson because all their pricing remains low. They have tough matchups, but they are still underpriced. If you want guys in better pitching matchups, you want names like Steve Pearce, Steven Moya, Cameron Maybin and Hyun-soo Kim. Jake Marisnick is catching my eye lately. When he slides into the top of the order, he’s a sick value play. He doesn’t hit for average but when he gets a little hot, he can really fly around the bases and swipe some bags. He isn’t playing much or batting near the top, so his price won’t rise anytime soon. Keep him on your radar. He might not be playable tonight, but keep the name in your back pocket. Andrew McCutcheon is the biggest name I’d plug in and hope to catch on. We know the upside this guy has and he’s just too good to be this bad for much longer. He’s shown signs of heating up a little. He’s another like a Jason Heyward (only a much better player offensively) that should have fairly normal numbers by the end of the year. I’d look for a big 2nd half out of him and it might start soon. Sin Soo Choo is another to watch. Maybe playable today, maybe not. But, he’s way underpriced right now. One of my favorite value plays on slates like these can be Angel Pagan in SFG. But, they just aren’t running well as a team. He does, however, have 35 pt upside on any given day. If I had to pick a few overpriced players, I’d immediately look away from Franklin Guttierez, Ryan Rua, and Christian Yelich. Sell high and buy low. These guys aren’t low at all.
Looking back this slate isn’t as appealing as one would think with Kershaw, Strasburg, and Bumgarner on it. Any of the deeper value plays seem to be facing the aces in other games. That’s just not a recipe for success. I might let all the other players fight over this slate and take the night off. If I play, and let’s be honest I probably will, it will be VERY lightly and just for playing with roster construction elements. I will toss out a few sample lineups later just for fun. Use them, improve them, laugh at them. The choice is yours. I do like tossing out my ideas, though, to foster discussion out in the main rooms. After all, that’s how we learn best.
HOOAH!
