Welcome back for another season of “Part the Cloud”!
For those joining us for the first time, this feature takes a deep dive into the Wide Receiver position with one goal in mind: identifying low-owned WRs who are positioned to take our lineups to new heights.
The Philosophy
The “Cloud” in Part the Cloud refers to the Cloud variation of Zone coverage. While two-high safety shells continue to rise in popularity, this feature was born during the height of Cover 3. In a way, that foundation fits perfectly with what we’re trying to accomplish each week.
One of the most explosive ways to attack Cover 3 is with Four Verts. Send four pass-catchers on Go routes and you immediately put the three deep defenders in a bind. They have to choose their marks, and someone is going to find space. That’s exactly what we’re trying to do with these WR selections:
Find the players who can get to the top.
Each week, I’ll break down the slate and identify at least three receivers I believe are in advantageous spots. I’ll use a variety of sources in the process, but Fantasy Points Data will be one of my primary resources.
So, what does Week 1 have in store?
Tetairoa McMillan
DK: $6,100
Projected Ownership: 8%
FD: $6,800
Projected Ownership: 8.86%
Last season, Tetairoa McMillan posted a 31% Target per Route Run rate against Man Coverage, and that’s especially intriguing in Week 1 with the Bears ranking eighth in the league in Man Coverage rate last season.
If you’re looking at a traditional WR/CB matchup chart, you’ll see McMillan listed as a boundary receiver—and that’s accurate. However, there’s an important wrinkle to consider heading into this season:
The Panthers want to get Tet more involved from the slot.
What better opportunity to feature him there than against a new team’s backup slot corner? Kyler Gordon is beginning the season on the PUP list, leaving Cam Lewis in line to handle the position. Lewis gives up eight inches in height to McMillan, and he has struggled to provide the type of blanket coverage you’d want against a receiver of Tet’s caliber.
The combination of matchup, potential alignment, and coverage tendencies creates a significant opportunity. Tet has a big opportunity ahead of him.
Quentin Johnston
DK: $4,700
Projected Ownership: 6.85%
FD: $6,000
Projected Ownership: 5.38%
The Chargers are going to attract plenty of attention in Week 1, but most of that ownership should be concentrated around Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, and Omarion Hampton.
That creates an opportunity to get different. The Cardinals are expected to use plenty of three-safety looks that morph into two-high safety shells post-snap. To attack that structure, the Chargers should have opportunities to utilize a healthy dose of:
- Hitches
- In-breaking routes/DIGs
- Out routes
Several Chargers pass-catchers can run these concepts, but there’s another reason Johnston stands out. Mike McDaniel‘s preference for 12 and 21 personnel should put Johnston in a favorable position. The Chargers operated out of 11 personnel at the third-lowest rate in the league last season, meaning a larger percentage of the available receiver routes should funnel toward Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Johnston also possesses the ability to win on the types of routes that should be featured against Arizona’s defensive structure. At just $4,700 on DraftKings and with single-digit projected ownership, that’s an intriguing combination of price, matchup, and opportunity.
DeVaughn Vele
DK: $3,500
Projected Ownership: 7.14%
FD: $5,000
Projected Ownership: 3.69%
This situation bears some resemblance to the McMillan spot above, although to a lesser degree. The injury to Jordyn Tyson has opened up an opportunity for Vele, and that’s particularly interesting against Detroit.
The Lions’ defense projects much differently this season, and we expect their offense to have to do plenty of the heavy lifting. That creates the potential for a favorable game environment. From a coverage standpoint, the biggest weakness appears to be the slot, particularly against Christian Izien. Izien allowed an extremely high percentage of the targets he faced to turn into completions last season. Detroit could rotate its coverage assignments, but none of its potential options immediately jump out as someone who should be able to lock Vele down.
Chris Olave should command plenty of targets, but he should spend more time aligned outside, creating a path for Vele to benefit from the slot matchup. Vele hasn’t exactly exploded onto the scene during his career, but he has shown some ability to win against Man Coverage—and that’s particularly relevant against Detroit. At just $3,500 on DraftKings, the price makes the opportunity worth exploring.
☁️ In Summary
These are my favorite low-owned wide receiver plays for Week 1.
As we get closer to lock, I’ll continue monitoring the slate for any additional value that presents itself. The goal isn’t simply to find cheap receivers—it’s to identify players whose matchup, projected usage, and ownership create a path to a difference-making tournament performance.
If you have questions about the process, want to discuss another player, or simply want to talk through a matchup, you can find me in the channels under TreyJ989. Feel free to tag me!
Thanks for reading, and good luck this week.
Let’s make some bold moves.