10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 15 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 14 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jalen Hurts – 24.22ts | QB5 | 3.1x Value

Kyren Williams – 23.7 pts | RB4 | 3.2x Value

Tyrone Tracy Jr. – 19.3 pts | RB8 | 3.3x value

Khalil Shakir – 24.6 pts | WR7 | 4.2x value 

Chig Okonkwo- 3.8 pts | TE19 | 1.25x value

Fanduel:

Jameis Winston – 17.28 pts| QB10 | 2.5x value

Caleb Williams – 14.06 pts | QB15 | 1.9x value

Bijan Robinson – 19.1 pts | RB6 | 2.1x value

Adam Thielen – 17.7 pts | WR13 | 3x value 

Will Dissly – 2.9 pts | TE23 |  0.6x Value (injured at end of first half). 

2.37x on Fanduel (not counting an injured Dissly) 3.01x on Draftkings! Back to back solid weeks? Look at us! Who whoulda thought!?

QB’s, which have been my strong suit were duds for the most part this week, but man, we nailed the RB’s and the WR’s

The unfortunate thing in GPP last week though, was that the chalk cheap RB’s, absolutely freaking smashed with huge scores. That doesn’t happen all the time, but the Chalk Donkeys got paid off in a big way. Usually, one goes off and two sort of are just meh, but we saw 3 absolutely crush and it was so easy to fit them all in your lineups. If you paired them with a Vikings stack you were laughing all the way to the bank.

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Aaron Rodgers QB New York Jets 

Ownership: 4.56%

Salary: DK $5400

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

Incredibly outside of my comfort zone to recommend a duster like Rodgers this week, but this is a great spot against the Jags and this offense has to get right at some point right? RIGHT?!

Had a 20 point game last week and with Breece Hall likely out again, I think he has a chance to throw it another 40 times and crush value here. Just love him the most of the cheap QB’s, even though I’m a massive Rodgers hater.

Pair with Garrett Wilson or Davante and you have a ton of salary left to play whoever you want.

David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs RB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 4.7%/5.6%

Salary: DK $7000/$7500

Two for one!

I actually love both of these guys against the Bills and their awful run D and think it’s a sneaky GPP, silly for the milly play to play both. We could easily see them both put up 20+ points and no one will play them together.

Get silly for the milly, and play both RB’s in your lineup as everyone chases the passing game.

Brian Robinson Jr. RB Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 5.8%

Salary: DK $6200

Robinson is a stud, this is a great matchup against the Saints who have really struggled against opposing RB’s this year. Ekeler is still on IR and he showed last week that he’s over the ankle injury that held him out two weeks ago.

Would love to see him catch a few more passes, but he can get there without it at this price point.

CeeDee Lamb WR Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: 7%

Salary: DK $7300.

This is gross, but Cooper Rush has looked improved, and Lamb has been his favorite target, putting up some decent scores. He’s about 1k too cheap here so were getting a discount on a guy with 20 DK point upside.

Devaughn Vele WR Denver Broncos

Ownership: DK 3.2%

Salary: DK $4200

Mega cheap for a guy in a pretty high powered offense against a terrible defense. He really did nothing against the Browns (in a game where Nix smashed), but has shown tons of upside this year, especially at the cheap price tag. Colts are almost dead last against the pass, so while Sutton is the guy here, don’t sleep on Vele in a good spot.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Bryce Young QB Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 3.81%

Salary: FD $6800

Back to the well with Bryce Young here. Love the price/ownership combo and think this game potentially pops off as the Dallas offense has been improved, and the Panthers have looked strong.

It’s about time we see a two TD week from Young, and if he does he’ll smash value. Correllated leverage here off the Chuba Hubbard chalk (though that’s good chalk to eat in SE/3 Max/Cash.

Stack him up with Thielen who smashed again last week or Xavier Leggette who has tons of upside.

Tua Tagovailoa QB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: FD: 2.3%

Salary: FD $8300

I’m still a bit in shock that Tua is playing again this season, but here we are and he smashed last week (and honestly has since he came back). Throwing the ball a ton, hitting his RB for passes, the ceiling is massive here and while I hate the price tag, that’s what is keeping the ownership down.

There’s enough value on the slate to afford him and Tyreek and not feel awful about your lineup.

Rhamondre Stevenson RB New England Patriots

Ownership: FD 5.26%

Salary: FD $6600

Would be a smash play if Gibson was sitting there stealing some touches (and TD’s), but should still be able to smash value at this price point, especially considering how low owned he is.

Should be good for 18-20 carries against a middle of the rush defense in the Cards. If he can find a touchdown then he’ll crush this price point.

Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 7.65%

Salary: FD $6400

This game is going to blow up for a million points and Williams is way underowned at this price point. Has had 5 catches in each of the last three games and has had 7 or 8 targets in each of those.

Buffalo is a prime matchup for WR’s (and really any position) and at home it’s an even better spot. Should he find the end zone he has a real chance to be the nuts. So much attention is paid to Amon Ra St. Brown by defenses, and I really think that Williams is the guy who can take the top off the defense and have big chunk gains for points.

Stone Smartt TE Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: FD 2.5%

Salary: FD: $4500

With my boy Dissly out for the forseeable future, I like targetting the guy who took his place last week in Stone Smartt (with two T’s!). Smartt is a stud pass catcher who is mega cheap/low owned in a good spot against the Bucs.

Dissly was getting a ton of first looks from Herbert prior to him getting injured, and it seemed like that continued in the second half when Smartt was the guy. He had 3 receptions for 54 yards and if he can find the end zone he’ll be the cheap TE you need to fit in the studs!

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