Top VALUE Picks | NFL DFS Winning Strategies for Week 12 Draftkings and Fanduel Success

Kickstart your excitement for Week 12 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFSbets on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.

Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!

Top Value Quarterbacks:

Geno Smith ($5.7k vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Geno was able to salvage his week last week with a game-winning rushing touchdown but otherwise had a pretty bad game from a DFS perspective. It wasn’t the best matchup against the Niners and gets a good bounce-back spot here against the Cardinals at a nice price tag. We know he has great stacking pieces as well with Metcalf, JSN, and Lockett. The ceiling is certainly there at this price tag in a game that has the second-highest total on the week and should be a close one. The Domination Station has him projected for 20.41 DraftKings points giving him 3.58x his current price tag.

Anthony Richardson ($5.6k vs. Detroit Lions)

Richardson returned as the Colts starting QB last week and looked pretty good against a Jets defense that has certainly fallen off as the season has gone on. That said, 29 DraftKings points for a guy that was benched mid-way through the season isn’t anything to ignore. He did a lot of damage on the ground with two rushing TDs, but was able to move the ball downfield through the air as well. This game should set up as a pass-heavy script so Richardson is going to look solid again in this one. We have him projected for 19.93 DraftKings points giving him a value multiplier of 3.56x his current salary.

Tommy DeVito ($4.0k vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Well well well, we’ve got Tommy Cutlets back in our lives after the Giants benched, and have since released, Daniel Jones. He comes in at the stone minimum price tag in a good matchup against this Bucs defense. The Bucs secondary has been shredded through the air this season, but let’s be honest, DeVito kind of stinks. I think you’re getting a very low ceiling here hoping for a floor as a dirt-cheap salary saver. Stacking options include Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton… but it’s a pretty thin play for me. Our lineup optimizer has Jameis projected for 16.97 DraftKings points giving him 3.09x his price tag.

Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer

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Running Backs:

James Conner ($6.5k at Seattle Seahawks)

We touched on the Seattle stack in the QB section, and I think Conner makes plenty of sense as a run-back option to those guys or he can definitely be played as a one-off. He had a nice bounce-back game last time out against the Jets with a lot of that coming through the air where he had five receptions for 80 yards. He’s always a threat in the passing game and provides a nice floor without sacrificing a ceiling. The Domination Station has him projected for 19.34 DraftKings points giving him 2.98x his price tag.

Kenneth Walker III ($6.9k vs. Arizona Cardinals)

It feels like Walker is due for a breakout game, he’s been held in check since about week seven against Atlanta, but he gets a great matchup in this one against the Cardinals who rank 21st in DvP against opposing running backs. The pass-game upside is there with him as well which helps his floor/ceiling combination in a game that should have plenty of scoring. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 19.88 DraftKings points giving him 2.88x his price tag.

De’Von Achane ($7.5k vs. New England Patriots)

Achane had a nice bounce-back week last week against the Raiders and has continued to be great with Tua at quarterback. He has at least 20 DraftKings poitns in three of his last four games and a lot of that has been because of his pass game work. He has a 17.1% target share in this offense which is 2nd among all running backs on the season. The matchup doesn’t scare me either against this Pats defense that has been beaten up on the ground at times this season. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 21.56 DraftKings points giving him 2.87x his price tag.

Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Value Priced Wide Receivers:

Jakobi Meyers ($5.1k vs. Denver Broncos)

I can’t say I love the matchup here for Meyers as he probably gets the Pat Surtain treatment, but he’s the guy in the WR core for the Raiders right there with Brock Bowers. He has at least seven targets in four of his last five games which you won’t find a ton of in this price range. I think we can safely rely on a floor from him, but the ceiling is in question given the matchup. The Domination Station has him projected for 14.2 DraftKings points giving him 2.78x his current price tag.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.3k at Indianapolis Colts)

St. Brown has been unreal as of late and capped it off with 11 receptions on 11 targets for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns last week in a beatdown of the Jaguars. He gets a good matchup again in this one against the Colts. He has a perfect 100 DFSA rating in this one as well, he’s expensive, but probably not as expensive as he should be considering the spot and his production as of late. We have him projected for 20.89 DraftKings points giving him 2.52x his price tag.

Courtland Sutton ($5.8k at Las Vegas Raiders)

Sutton has been extremely consistent as of late with at least eight targets in four straight and at least 14 DraftKings points in each game. He’s the first look for Bo Nix who has started to figure things out at the pro level and looks like one of the better rookie QBs this season. The matchup is very solid against the Raiders who rank 23rd in DvP against opposing WRs on the season. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 14.16 DraftKings points giving him 2.44x his price tag.

Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry ($4.0k at Miami Dolphins)

A nice bounce-back week from Henry last week against the Rams and is a top target in this offense from Drake Maye. He has at least six targets in four of his last five games and is due for some positive touchdown regression. This Dolphins defense doesn’t scare me so I expect the Pats to be able to move the ball… I still think Maye has a huge week before the end of the season and could come in this spot. We have him projected for 11.38 DraftKings points giving him 2.85x his current price tag.

Travis Kelce ($5.8k at Carolina Panthers)

Elite matchup for Kelce in this one, the Panthers are ranked 22nd in DvP against opposing tight ends on the season. He’s coming off of a terrible game last week against Buffalo but is primed for a bounce-back in this one, prior to that game he had at least 20 DraftKings points in three straight games. The Domination Station has him projected for 16.1 DraftKings points giving him a value of 2.78x his price tag.

Luke Schoonmaker ($2.5k at Washington Commanders)

Jake Ferguson left the game early last week with a concussion and seems like he’s due to miss this game which sets up Schoonmaker as the TE1 in this offense. He ended up with 10 targets last week and would be an elite value if he saw that volume again in this one. It doesn’t seem like Cooper Rush can get the ball downfield which opens up these tight ends to be his safety blanket. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 6.91 DraftKings points giving him 2.76x his current price tag.

Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer

Value Defense/Special Teams:

Chicago Bears $2.5k – We get a nice little discount on the Bears defense here against the Vikings who have regressed offensively. Sam Darnold has come down to Earth and their are some playmakers on this Bears defense where they can easily pay off this price tag.

Miami Dolphins $3.1k – The Dolphins have been in good form as of late with at least six DraftKings points in back-to-back games and a combined seven sacks. Although I do like Maye this week, he’s a rookie that can certainly make mistakes in a bad offense.

Houston Texans $3.6k – I generally don’t spend up on defense all that much but the Texans look great here with double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games. Now they get a matchup against Will Levis who we know will make some bonehead decisions.

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