10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 13 Main Slate

 

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 12 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jordan Love – 14.72 pts | QB13 | 2.19x Value

David Montgomery – 16.3 pts | RB8 | 2.43 x value

Malik Nabers – 12.4 pts | WR19 | 1.67x value 

Devaughn Vele – 14.0 pts | WR16 | 3.59x value 

George Kittle – 20.20 pts | TE5 | 3.36x value

Fanduel:

Tommy Devito  – 10.76 pts| QB20 | 1.8x value

Will Levis – 17.12 pts | QB11 | 2.6x value

Saquon Barkley – 47.2 pts | RB1 | 4.7x value

Demario Douglas – 8.8 pts | WR100 | 1.6x value 

Sam LaPorta – 3.4 pts | TE20 |  0.6x Value

2.26x on Fanduel 2.65x on Draftkings!! Now that’s skewed by two guys, but hey! We’re taking what we can get because it’s been TOUGH to find these low owned plays that smash.

Last week we talked about punting some cheap WR’s and while we smashed on Elijah Moore, the double zero’s with DeAndre Hopkins and Ricky Pearsall reaaaaallly hurt our overall return (2.65x) and my own personal lineups!

I do still think that’s the best strategy going forward, even though we saw the return of the stud WR smash game last week so we will continue to try to identify those cheapies in great game scripts that can pop off!

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Anthony Richardson QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: 8.26%

Salary: DK $5500

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

Anthony Richardson is that guy for me this week. He’s an absolute stud and can put up 30 fantasy points in a hurry with his deep ball and the ability to take off and scramble.

We just saw the Pats defense get lit up by Tua and they aren’t as good as maybe anecdotally we think they are.

The big knock here is that Josh Downs is likely to be out, but that opens up opportunities for a mega cheap value in Adonai Mitchell who is potentially a stud in the making.

That’s my preferred stack partner with Richardson, but as always we can leave him naked and stack up other high upside plays.

Bryce Young QB Carolina Panthers

Ownership: DK 3%

Salary: DK $4700

Bryce Young is….good? Super respectable score last week against the Chiefs who are one of the NFL’s elite defenses and he threw some absolute dots out there.

Adds in a little rushing upside too, with 50 yards in his last two games combined. No interceptions in his last two games. The price is ridiculously low and lets you fit in guys like Barkley/Mixon if you want to.

Saquon Barkley RB Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 5.28%

Salary: DK $8500

What are we doing here? Saquon is the MVP in the NFL right now and he absolutely crushes every single week. 51 point total. These teams are both going to explode for a bunch of points. Don’t overthink it.

PLAY SAQUON. This is why we play cheapie QB’s that can get you 15-20 points.

Garrett Wilson New York Jets

Ownership: 6.47%

Salary: DK $6900

This is a feel play. Everyone is hating on the Jets, and rightfully so, but against the Seahawks and their mediocre secondary, I think that the Jets and Aaron Rodgers can move the ball, and he needs to find Wilson who has been his most productive weapon this season.

Cade Otton TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 5%

Salary: DK $4500

Bounce back spot for Otton here against the lowly Carolina Panthers. Quiet outing last game against the Giants where the Bucs smashed, but I expect this game to be a bit more competitive.

Otton has shown his massive upside in this offense and while others will flock to a cheap old man David Moore, I think Baker ends up throwing it to Otton and he smashes here as a fairly cheap TE play in what I expect to be a close, competitive divisional game.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Sam Darnold QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD 6.4%

Salary: FD $7200

This is a DFS Army Domination special FREE for everyone today. When I run the DS for Fanduel, it keeps absolutely shoving in as much Sam Darnold as possible…and as a Vikings fan… I don’t hate it!

You know what else I don’t hate? The price/ownership combo here. Just a fantastic combo and add that into his ceiling projection and I see why the DS is smashing him.

Jjetta’s or Addison are you stack pieces, but I don’t hate a naked Darnold either here in big GPP and just pair him up with a ton of value.

Will Levis QB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: FD: 3.45%

Salary: FD $6700

I’m going right back to Levis this week as he performed admirably in Week 12, returning 2.6x value and gets a Washington defense that got beat up by a Dallas Cowboys offense led by Cooper Rush.

He’s going to turn the ball over, it’s just what he does, but the upside is there at the price and he’s taking enough (8 times last week) that he’s bound to break one at some point.

Stack pieces are Ridley/Westbrook-Ikhine and run it back with Terry McLaurin who has been absolutely dominating the last few weeks, or Brian Robinson Jr. now that Ekeler is likely out, though he’s dealing with an ankle injury too.

Joe Mixon RB Houston Texans

Ownership: FD 8%

Salary: FD $9500

Exact same situation as last week. Expensive RB in a great spot that is going to be under owned. Mixon has 40 burger written all over him this week and no one is going to play him.

Saquon got me over the cash line in lots of lineups and contending for a win on his own last week, and I expect Mixon to do the same thing.

Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 7.12%

Salary: FD $5400

Thielen returned from injury last week and was fairly quiet, but my expectation is that he quickly becomes one of the new and improved Bryce Young’s favorite targets.

Great possession receiver who is elite in the red zone and with their starting TE going down, we could see more balls funneled Thielen’s way. Prime matchup against the Bucs who have been stout against the run and their offense has been clicking, so the Panthers will have to pass the ball to keep up.

Buffalo Bills DEF

Ownership: FD 2.36%

Salary: FD: $4800

I hate paying up for defense, but in this situation I think you need to.

49ers are dealing with tons of injuries, including looking like Purdy isn’t going to go and if he does will be extremely limited. More importantly though, we are looking at a TON of snow on Sunday night. 6-18 inches of lake effect heavy stuff that will keep the scoring in this game low, and potentially lead to a ton of turnovers. I actually don’t hate the 49ers here either even though they’ve been underwhelming all season.

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