10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 11 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 10 Recap:

Draftkings:

Russell Wilson – 19.1 pts | QB7 | 3.23x Value

Rhamondre Stevenson – 8.7 pts | RB19| 1.36x value

Deebo Samuel – 12.9 pts | WR17 | 1.83x value 

Jordan Addison – 4.9 pts | WR1000 | 1.1x value

Cade Otton – 8.5 pts | TE10 | 1.55x value

Fanduel:

Baker Mayfield – 8.95 pts| QB17 | 1.1x value

Mac Jones – 7.24 pts | QB19 | 1.2x value

Najee Harris – 11.3 pts | RB14 | 1.6x value

Tank Dell – 5.8 pts | W33 | 0.6x value 

Vikings Defense – 13 pts | DEF4 |  2.7x Value

We got better on Fanduel this week!!! 1.2x to 1.44x!! Honestly though, with the low scoring last week the pics last week weren’t near as bad as they were in week 10 so I’ll take it!

DK had an average return of 1.81x which was pretty solid given the overall scoring last week.

It’s been a weird year. The Chalk has been hitting and the non chalk that smashes is just completely random, like Marquez Valdez Scantling last week, though if there is one position that we should be targetting lower owned guys, it is WR, and that’s going to be reflected in this article this week!

Eat the chalk RB, find a pivot with upside at QB, and throw darts on WR. That’s the strategy going forward!

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Russell Wilson QB Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: 5.6%

Salary: DK $5900

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

For the second week in a row, I’m going right back to Russell Wilson.

He’s in a prime spot against the Ravens in what should be one of the higher scoring games on the slate. Performed well against the Commanders last week, but didn’t quite hit his ceiling. That’s definitely in play here in what could turn into a shoot out.

Continue playing George Pickens with him, while Mike Williams has some sneaky upside in this spot. Great value GPP play with 25-30 DK point upside.

Kareem Hunt RB Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: DK 4%

Salary: DK $6700

Love the matchup here for Hunt against the Bills who have struggled against the run.

Pacheco is out at least another week and Hunt’s pass catching upside gives him a great floor. Had a season high 7 receptions last week and I think we see more of that here.

Price/Ownership combo is just far far too low. Think he smashes this week for multiple TD’s.

Elijah Moore WR Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 6.82%

Salary: DK $4300

While the Jameis experiment was a struggle last week, we know that he’s going to continue to throw the ball, and one of his favorite targets so far has been Moore.

Moore has yet to capitalize on the elite volume he is getting, bringing in only 3 catches on 9 targets last week, but the potential is there for a big game.

The Saints without Lattimore are a very mediocre pass defense and while I don’t expect this to be a shoot out, I think that at this price point he can easily hit value.

Ugh… I did it… I said it again. He’s going to get a zero now because I jinxed him…

Ricky Pearsall San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: 2.47%

Salary: DK $4900

Get shot, score tuddies. That’s been the MO in the NFL here lately, and Pearsall has been fulfilling it once again.

After returning from his gunshot wound after an attempted robbery (faster than DJ Chark from his Groin injury by the way), Pearsall has become a big part of this offense. He’s been helped by the Aiyuk injury, but even without that I think he would have found his way into some targets here.

Averaging 5 targets a game, and scoring his first TD of the season last week, he gets to go up against the Seahawks who have been awful against the pass all season.

Low owned punt with upside, we know that that’s the key to taking down a GPP and Pearsall is one of my favorite punts.

Diontae Johnson WR Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: DK 0.36%

Salary: DK $4800

This is a super punt, as the guy only played 5 snaps last week for the Ravens, but you have to think that he’s going to usurp guys like Tylan Wallace and get more playing time here. The Ravens traded for him for a reason. More of a possession type receiver, and in this matchup against his former team, I think his style should get him some targets IF the Ravens get him snaps.

There is potential for an absolute zero here, but I do think he has serious upside if he gets a regular role in this offense.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Anthony Richards QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD 3.6%

Salary: FD $6400

Richards gets the reigns again of the Colts offense and while the matchup against the Jets is tough, we know that Anthony Richardson is going to do Anthony Richardson things. He’s going to take off and run, he’s going to throw some bombs, and he’s going to potentially sneak a few into the end zone.

That upside is huge and can help you take down a GPP. We need to be clear that the floor here is zero. He could have 5 turnovers in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked.

The incredibly reduced price allows you to fit some serious studs in your lineup on Fanduel and the 20 point game is possible here. Similar story to Mac Jones last week but I think that he has far higher upside.

Derek Carr QB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD: 1.63%

Salary: FD $7200

Carr returned two weeks ago and without any weapons was still able to put up solid scores. Cleveland is a mediocre defense and NO one is going to play Carr.

Super cheap. He’s not good but he’s not bad. Has 20 point upside and the floor is like 13/14 which doesn’t kill you. They actually looked pretty good on offense in the first half before trying to just hold onto the lead against the Falcons. I think this game has sneaky blow up potentially if both offenses can get clicking.

Think that Carr is the prime run it naked candidate this week. We’ve seen that strategy work in GPP’s of late and could see it again here.

Aaron Jones RB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD 8.7%

Salary: FD $7600

Titans are a solid pass defense and have been gashed by everyone with the run. On the road, I expect the Vikings to pound the rock and control the pace of the game here. Jones will be the beneficiary of that and I’m convinced that he gets 20+ touches here.

Higher owned on DK but if I’m being honest I’m playing him in both places as he should get a ton of volume. Don’t worry about the Q tag it’s just a bruised rib.

DeAndre Hopkins WR Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 5.36%

Salary: FD $6700

D Hop is finally integrated into this offense and we saw what he could do against the Bucs in week 9. The Bills are just an average defense and I think that Mahomes can exploit, especially with D Hop as they focus on Kelce in this matchup.

The passing offense for the Chiefs needs to improve and it’s weird to say that considering they are undefeated, but if they want to keep this up, Mahomes has to start to style out a bit more, and when he does, I think that D Hop will be the primary recipients of it.

 

Will Dissly TE Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: FD 6.4%

Salary: FD: $5400

Dissly has one of the highest first look rates in the NFL. Herbert is almost always checking his TE out right away, and it’s been showing in his target volume as he’s averaging just under 7 targets a game over his last 4. That’s WR1 volume.

Hammer game at home on Sunday night. He’s catching a tuddy. Lock it in and watch your lineups climb the board Sunday night when he does.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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