10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 10 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 9 Recap:

Draftkings:

Kirk Cousins – 18.78 pts | QB11 | 2.93x Value

Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.4 pts | RB7 | 3.56x value

James Cook – 11,9 pts | RB22 | 1.5x value 

Cooper Kupp – 24.4 pts | WR6 | 3.17x value

Sam LaPorta – 4.8 pts | TE25  | 1x value

Fanduel:

Joe Flacco – 4.06 pts| QB26 | 0.4x value

Jared Goff – 9.6 pts | QB23 | 1.2x value

Nick Chubb – 4 pts | RB100 | 0.6x value

Khalil Shakir – 3.3 pts | WR100 | 0.6x value 

Arizona Cardinals-  12 pts | DEF4 |  3.2x Value

That might be…..my lowest ever return on Fanduel. 1.2x….woof. DK had an average return of 2.43x which was pretty solid, but when both your QB’s score under 10 points on FD…yikes!

The lone bright spot on Fanduel was the Arizona Cardinals who were a top 5 D and one of the better values returning 3.2x. Draftkings was FAR better, hitting on guys like Kupp and Rhamondre Stevenson along with a serviceable Kirk Cousins.

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Russell Wilson QB Washington Commanders

Ownership: 5.3%

Salary: DK $5900

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

This week one of my favorite plays, on either site, but in particular DK, is Russ Wilson.

Wilson has stepped into this offense and looked in control from the start. Now he gets to go up against the Commanders in a matchup that I think could easily go over the 45 point projected total.

Wilson has been targeting George Pickens with regularity and this is a prime matchup for him. Should have had a TD last week that was for some reason never confirmed.

One other thing to like about Wilson here is that the Steelers are coming off a bye, where he likely got a bit more comfortable with the offense/playbook and they implemented some things that they hadn’t been able to with Fields at the helm and Wilson sidelined with injury.

I really think this game blows up, despite the Steelers being solid on D, Jayden Daniels is that good. Noah Brown is cheap and chalky to run it back with and my preferred game stack target depsite McLaurin popping off last week. Pickens is the partner to pair with Wilson.

Rhamondre Stevenson RB New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 3.33%

Salary: DK $6400

RIGHT BACK TO THE WELL.

I’m going to keep playing Stevenson until he quits overproducing relative to the price point and ownership.

Smashed in the passing game last week and I think that continues here against the Bears who have been good not great against the run, but have struggled at times with pass catching backs.

That usage in the passing game just gives him such a nice floor, and with the TD upside he brings he’s really one of the best plays week in and week out on DK where you get the full PPR.

Seems to have corrected the fumbling issues the last few weeks so should continue to get the rock a ton. Love him here.

Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 2.5%

Salary: DK $7200

Samuel has been dealing with an oblique injury that he suffered in week 8 and while they had a Bye he’s still showing up as Questionable and wearing the non contact jersey in practice.

That being said, he’s going to play this week in a matchup against the Bucs who have been absolutely torched by receivers all year.

He’s literally one of the only legitimate WR’s left for Purdy to throw to and while he might get some more attention from the defense, he’s good enough to beat it.

Jordan Addison WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: 3.52%

Salary: DK $5300

Correlated leverage play this week with Addison. Jefferson is going to be the chalk WR, and rightfully so, but Addison is plenty involved and is developing into an elite red zone threat with the variety of ways that they use him.

Ceiling is high, floor is fairly low, but if he’s smashing then Jefferson likely is a bit quieter (though not impossible for them both to smash here against the Jags).

Cade Otton TE Tampa Bahy Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 5.56%

Salary: DK $5500

Volume went down a bit in primetime against the Chiefs but he’s still an absolute smash play, especially against the Niners this week.

His floor is high, ceiling is high, and since the price is a bit high, the ownership is going to be lower. Don’t overthink it. Lock him in.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD 2.56%

Salary: FD $8200

Baker is just full of fantasy goodness every time he gets on the field. Doesn’t matter that he doesn’t have a legitimate receiver, he’s putting up points.

The Niners are not the Niners of old on the defensive side of the ball and are giving up 200+ yards per game in the air, which is middle of the pack. They are a much better run defense and given how much the Bucs throw, that should suit him.

Think you can pair him with either of the running backs on FD to get sneaky in big GPP’s but for the most part I just like going Mayfield/Otten and moving on.

Mac Jones QB Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: FD: 2.5%

Salary: FD $6000

As you will see below, I love the Vikings defense here against the Jags with Mac Jones making his first start. We know he’s been a turnover machine in the past, the Jags aren’t very good, and this is his first start in over a year.

That being said….what if he’s serviceable? This Vikings defense was better last week but they still aren’t dominant and at this price, Jones could be a smashing value and he’s likely going to have to throw the ball a ton to keep up. D

Look I realize this is a silly for the milly type of play, but that’s what this article is for! He could be terrible and in all likelihood he is…but what if he’s OK? There’s legitimate value in playing a. mega cheap QB that lets you get guys like Saquon Barkley who are poised for monster games but are too expensive for most to afford.

Najee Harris RB Pittsburgh Stelers

Ownership: FD 7.5%

Salary: FD $7100

Wrote in the DraftKings portion of this article that I love Wilson and the Steelers pass catchers but also like the running backs against Washington too.

Harris has put up a couple fantastic games in a row and has had 19 and 21 carries in each of the last two outings, eclipsing 100 yards on the ground in three straight.

Continues to get a few targets a game as well which helps the overall ceiling.

I think he has a pretty clear path to 100 yards and TD if the volume stays the same and he has two TD upside against this Commanders front 7 making him a fantastic GPP play.

Tank Dell WR Houston Texans

Ownership: FD 2.65%

Salary: FD $7200

Nico Collins is practicing and looks like he potentially may return to the lineup on Sunday night against the Lions and that is fantastic news for Tank Dell as he won’t garner a ton of double teams and can operate in more of his deep threat role.

The volume won’t be the same as he’s seen the last few weeks but he can potentially put up an even bigger score with Collins back, even though that seems counterintuitive, it just will open more up in the secondary for Dell to work and we know how good he is in space. \

Hammer game play on Sunday night, which you know I love.

Minnesota Vikings Defense

Ownership: FD 1.84%

Salary: FD: $4900

We’re doing it again!

This time we’re firing up an EXPENSIVE defense, but the spot against the Jags with a backup QB is so good that we can’t ignore the Vikings here.

As a fan, I’ve been a bit disappointed with the defense the last few weeks, but seemed to get back on track a bit last week against the Colts and it’s likely that Blake Cashman is back in the lineup here which is a huge development for them, because as good as Ivan Pace is, Cashman is exponentially better as the MLB and play caller for the Vikes.

Great high ceiling spot with a solid floor and the ownership is far too low.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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