10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 9 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 8 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jordan Love- 6.74 pts | QB27 | INJURED

Derrick Henry – 14.7 pts | RB18 | 1.8x value

Brian Thomas Jr. – 15 pts | WR21| 2.34x value (INJURED)

Allen Robinson – 0 pts | WR100000 | 0x value

Dalton Schultz – 9.2 pts | TE18  | 2.24x value

Fanduel:

Dak Prescott – 15.62 pts| QB16 | 2.1x value

Jameis Winston – 26.56 pts | QB6 | 4.1x value

Rachaad White – 13.2 pts | RB19 | 2.1x value

Rashod Bateman – 3.3 pts | WR100 | 0.6x value 

Atlanta Falcons- 6 pts | DEF7 |  1.7x Value

I did it again.

I said “It doesn’t take much of anything for him to hit value here…”

And that player….got a zero.

AGAIN.

When will I learn?!

There was some bright spots though, as Jameis Winston smashed, which is so fun to see. Love that guy and the Falcons D was solid enough for a super cheap D spot.

DK had an average return of 1.59 and FD was 2.12x which isn’t really what we are looking for but in a week where a bunch of these guys were riddled with injuries, you just pick yourself by the bootstraps and say “that’s football” and move on.

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Kirk Cousins QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: 3.77%

Salary: DK $6400

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

And one of those guys is none other than former Minnesota Viking great, and current Atlanta Falcons stud, Kirko Chains.

Kirk gets to go up this week against the Falcons at home in one of the highest total games on the slate. He’s been extremely effective in this offense the last few weeks after a slow start to the season where everyone, including myself, questioned whether he was washed or not. He is clearly NOT washed.

4 Tuddies last week and he has elite history against the Cowboys in the past. Just don’t understand how he is going to be this low owned at this price and in this matchup.

Pair him up with his boy Drake London or even Kyle Pitts who has seen a real resurgence in his fantasy value with Kirk at the helm. Darnell Mooney is also extremely boom or bust, but a guy that I think in this matchup could potentially boom in a big way and get you over the top in a GPP. Or if you are feeling funky, and trying to take down the milly, go Naked Kirk. It’s a weird thought in a lot of ways but we’ve seen it take down big GPP’s a ton this year. Run it back with Ceedee Lamb if you want as Dak and Mike McCarthy have finally realized that they just need throw him the ball 20 times a game.

Rhamondre Stevenson RB New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 4.56%

Salary: DK $6300

Stevenson projects as one of the better fantasy points/dollar plays on the slate and has a pretty good matchup against the Titans who are a just a mess defensively.

20 carries last week and while he only had 48 yards he was able to find the end zone twice, showing that they have confidence in him again. I don’t really care who starts here whether Brissett or Maye, but Brissett under center probably means more carries while Maye helps the offense move better.

Think this game potentially scores a bit higher than the total, regardless though Stevenson will be involved. The risk is that he fumbles early and they sit him down.

James Cook RB Buffalo Bills

Ownership: DK 2.5%

Salary: DK $7200

Cook is a stud. Exponentially better than his brother at this point (though not better than prime Dalvin in the purple and gold).

Gets Miami at home after throwing up 17 carries for 111 yards and a tuddy last week against the Seahawks on the road. Gashed this same Miami defense in week 2 for 3 TD’s

He’s been a stud all year and I expect more of the same this week. Lock and load in all formats for me. One of my favorite plays.

Cooper Kupp WR Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: 3.6%

Salary: DK $7700

Kupp returend last week and had a nice 16 DK point performance against the Vikings. He wasn’t necessarily slowly brought back in but he wasn’t really featured either.

This offense is starting to click and I think the Rams are going to be dangerous down the stretch here if they can stay healthy. Having Puka back doesn’t hurt Kupp either as it just gets him better matchups depending on where he lines up.

This Seahawks secondary just got shredded by Josh Allen and the Bills at home and I expect more of the same here from the Rams. Kupp is a guy who has 30 point upside which will help you take down a slate and we don’t get too many of those guys at this ownership.

Sam Laporta TE Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 4.3%

Salary: DK $4800

Weird game for the Lions last week against the Titans, as Jared Goff only threw for 85 yards, but LaPorta was the recipient of 48 of them. He also caught a TD pass from David Montgomery…weird.

The run game just absolutely dominated and the Lions weren’t forced to throw but with Jameson Williams (potentially for a while if this gun thing gets figured out) I think we see LaPorta get back to the sort of volume that he saw last year. 6-8 targets and looking at 75ish yards a game.

TE is a wasteland this year as we know, so getting a potentially high upside guy like this in a good spot against the Packers at too cheap of price seems like free money.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Joe Flacco QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD 3.3%

Salary: FD $7000

While organizationally this is a disaster scenario, having to sit down your top 5 QB pick for a 39 year old backup, but for the offense it’s a massive shot in the arm as Flacco can clearly operate it better than Richardson and move the team efficiently down the field.

I believe that the Colts have one of the better wide receiver rooms in the NFL with Pittman Jr., Downs, and Pierce but we just don’t see it outside of some splash plays because Richardson can’t get them the ball with enough regularity.

The Vikings defense has been a mess without Blake Cashman (who I think misses again on Sunday night) and while they certainly could dial it up and dominate here, I think this game ends up being a shootout with the Colts playing from behind, which really dials up Flacco’s fantasy prospects.

Pair him up with any of his receivers and run it back with Aaron Jones in the smash spot of the century for one of my favorite Fanduel stacks, plus it’s the hammer game so you get to watch your lineups climb all Sunday night!

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD: 2.5%

Salary: FD $8000

I’m a touch confused by this ownership. I get that Goff only threw for 85 yards last week but he still threw for 3 TD’s and we’re not going to see a game like last week here.

Goff has been arguably the NFC MVP through 8 weeks and I expect him to ball out again against the Packers. He’s incredibly efficient. Doesn’t make mistakes. There’s just so much to like here.

Love him with LaPorta and run it back with Doubs/Reed who should be able to feast against the Lions if Love is healthy. That’s probably my big sticking point here. Does Jordan Love play and how efficient is he? If we get news that he will be a full go, then I think this game shoots out and Goff has a big one.

Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: FD 2.92%

Salary: FD $6500

Too good. Too cheap.

Stefanski says he’s not fully off the pitch count yet, but gotta imagine that he’s close and a fully healthy Nick Chubb getting a full complement of snaps at this deflated price is a smash spot.

Tough matchup here against the Chargers but Chubb is starting to look like Chubb and if we get an underowned Chubb at a discounted price and he is who we think he is… Milly win incoming.

Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: FD 4.82%

Salary: FD $6100

Starting to get the volume that we expected him to get at the beginning of the season.

Great matchup against the Dolphins who are no bueno. Coopers addition has actually taken some pressure of Shakir and Allen is finding him more regularly.

Think you could run a Cook/Shakir game stack here if you think the Bills dominate and get some leverage on the field.

Arizona Cardinals Defense

Ownership: FD 2.43%

Salary: FD: $3800

A defense?! You better believe it baby!

For the second week in a row I’m highlighting a defense in this article. I always try to find the cheapest viable defense that is in a good spot where they potentially could rack up some turnovers/sacks and for me this week it’s the Arizona Cardinals getting ready to play Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears.

Williams has been…not good. Had a decent fourth quarter against the Commanders but through 3 was pretty poor. No interceptions last week but did have a fumble. This Cards defense isn’t good but have been better at home and really what we are relying on here is that Williams is going to scramble and get sacked, and turn the ball over. Both pretty good possibilies. The 44 point total implies that this will be low scoring and I actually like it to go under.

I think if you don’t play the Cards, I like the other side as well. Bears D has been good and Call of Duty 6 came out this week which means Kyler Murray won’t be prepared.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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