10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 8 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 7 Recap:

Draftkings:

Sam Darnold- 17.26 pts | QB8 | 2.78x value

Nick Chubb – 10.2 pts | RB16 | 1.7x value

Noah Brown – 2.6 pts | WR10000 | 0.65x value

Tank Dell – 0 pts | WR100000 | 0x value

Brock Bowers – 19.3 pts | TE3  | 3.32x value

Fanduel:

Brock Purdy – 20.18 pts| QB4 | 2.6x value

Jared Goff – 18.8 pts | QB7 | 2.4x value

Kareem Hunt – 21.3 pts | RB7 | 2.8x value

Darnell Mooney – 7.1 pts | WR27 | 1.1x value 

TJ Hockenson – 0 pts | TE0 |  INJURED/Not Activated

 

When am I going to learn my lesson these cheap WR’s that are too good to be true?!? Seems like every week we get a guy who is getting volume, is mega cheap and makes your lineups work, and then he duds…I’m looking at you Noah Brown!

There was some bright spots though, as QB was solid again and Kareem Hunt was one of the better plays. Lots of guys from here ended up in the Milly Maker or GPP winning lineups as well (Darnold, Goff, Hunt, Bowers).

DK had an average return of 1.69 and FD was 2.23x which isn’t quite what we had last week, but still a decent return.

Tons of surprises last week and lots of low scores, so it’s not surprising that our return in terms of value wasn’t the greatest. Once again though the hammer game on Fanduel proved pivotal with Russ Wilson (who woulda thought?!) and Breece Hall (Everyone thought) being in the nuts for the day in the hammer game.

One thing to always note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jordan Love  QB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: 6.25%

Salary: DK $7100

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and are currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

And one of those guys is none other than young Jordan Love, the QB for my rival Green Bay Packers.

Love has been fairly consistent all year and has shown multiple games of 20+ point upside. All his receivers are healthy and he’s been gunslinging it out there. Throwing a few picks, and throwing tuddies too. That makes this game an incredible game stack.

The big issue is what receiver you pair him with. Kraft is cheap at TE so he’s viable and the guy I’m going to in Love+2 stacks. The main receiver I want to target though is Romeo Doubs who has been the alpha here but hasn’t gotten the TD equity he should.

My favorite run back is Brian Thomas Jr. who you will see below, but Christian Kirk and even Evan Engram are viable.

 

Derrick Henry RB Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: DK 3.86%

Salary: DK $8100

Dunno why you don’t just lock in Henry into your lineups every week and move on. They are committed to getting him the ball and he’s a beast regardless of the matchup. He would need to be 2023 CMC price for me to get off him here, don’t understand why he’s low single digits currently. There’s absolutely enough value on the slate to fit him in. I’ll be close to 100% exposure.

Brian Thomas Jr. WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: DK 5.8%

Salary: DK $6400

Brian Thomas Jr. is my guy and is the lone bright spot in this Jags offense. 20% target share and while Lawrence has struggled at times, he still continues to find Thomas and get him the ball.

This game has sneaky blow up potential and I love Thomas Jr in my Love stacks. I think the Jags keep it close, not because they are some great offense, but because Love will give them the opportunity with some turnovers and with short fields I think TLaw can throw a few tuddies. I actually think Lawrence is a sneaky cash game QB because of the fantasy points/$ value.

 

Allen Robinson WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: <1%

Salary: DK $3000

THIS IS PURELY SPECULATIVE.

BUT. Dan Campbell has said that with Jameson Williams being suspended for 2 games for violating the leagues substance use policy, Allen Robinson will be taking on a much bigger role.

Will that actually happen? Who knows. Campbell isn’t necessarily one for coach speak so I think he could be in line for some targets. Everyone else is assuming that Tim Patrick just steps into the Williams role, or Geek’s boy Wiz Khalif, but from a pure comparison standpoint, Robinson profiles much more like Williams than the other two.

BIG time punt here, but could be rewarded and as I say (and get burned by every week) it doesn’t take much for him to pay off his salary.

Dalton Schultz TE Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 4.4%

Salary: DK $5800

Texans Offense was absolutely atrocious last week. This is a massive get right spot against the Colts. While the flashy pieces like Diggs/Dell are intriguing, I don’t think you can count out trusty Dalty Schultz this week. One of the steadier TE’s if you aren’t looking to punt at this position and the ownership will be far too low.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Dak Prescott QB Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: FD 2.2%

Salary: FD $7600

You know I love the night game hammer, and I think Dak gets back on track this week with a big performance. 47 point total, both sort of fast teams that need to throw, two defenses that aren’t as good as they once were, this game just screams over to me.

Got absolutely wrecked by Detroit last week. I get that. Don’t think that continues here and either does Vegas. This will be a competitive game and the Cowboys will be throwing the ball.

Dak + CeeDee + ya boy Ricky Pearsall is one of my favorite GPP stacks this week. Subbing Pearsall for Kittle is fine too. If you really think Dak balls out you go Dak + Ceedee + Tolbert/Ferguson.

Jameis Winston QB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: FD: 1.38%

Salary: FD $6500

Jameis Winston starting on Sunday. ALERT. Jameis Winston is starting on Sunday!!!!

Winston is the definition of a gunslinger. He don’t care. He’s throwing the ball. Is it going to be good? Who knows! I think the risk is potentially worth the reward here. He might throw for 158 yards and 4 picks but maybe he goex 5x and throws for 250 3TD’s and 2 picks?

The main reason to play Jameis is how cheap the stack is. If he’s sort of productive then the ability to play the expensive guys that ball out together can you get over the line in a GPP.

Winston+Njoku/Jeudy is where I’m going on this silly for the milly type of play.

Rachaad White RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD 3.93%

Salary: FD $6400

Rachaad White out of nowhere smashed last week in primetime. He had a huge role in the passing game and now all signs point to his workload increasing even more.

Godwin – Out

Evans – Out

Bucky Irving – Maybe Out, likely limited

Who is going to get the ball here? It’s going to be White. He’s an elite play on both sites this week and is far too low owned. Smash him into all your lineups.

Rashod Bateman WR Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: FD 2.65%

Salary: FD $5700

For last week’s 2 gamer, BobbyWow made a great call that Bateman was going to crush, and once again…he was right, which pains me to say because he’s a Chicago Bears fan and we are sworn enemies during the season.

4 targets, 4 catches for 121 yards last week and a tuddy.

Lamar is spreading around the ball a ton, so it’s very boom or bust, but Bateman stands to have another big one here. I know I wrote up Henry in the DK side but I don’t mind getting a bunch of sides of this side of the ball in a game where the Ravens should roll.

Atlanta Falcons Defense

Ownership: FD 4.5%

Salary: FD: $3600

A defense?! You better believe it baby!

Everyone is going to play the Broncos and the Ravens (and rightfully so) this week, but if you are looking for a little salary savings, I love the Falcons going up against the Bucs.

Mayfield is extremely turnover prone, and is now without his two best receivers. This defense isn’t some great ball hawk type, but Mayfield in this scenario could potentially just give them the ball 3-4 times.

I also think both teams run it a ton this week and that leads to the game clock clicking down faster than most and should play to the under, which is always good for a defense in DFS.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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