10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 6 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 5 Recap:

Draftkings:

Josh Allen – 14.64 pts | QB14 | 1.9x value

Antonio Gibson – 6.6 pts | RB23 | 0.78x value

Brian Thomas Jr. – 26.2 pts | WR5 | 4.4x value

Romeo Doubs – 0 pts | WR0 | RULED OUT 

Erick All Jr. – 3 pts | TE24  | 1.1x value

Fanduel:

Bo Nix – 23.14 pts| QB7 | 3.5x value

Alexander Mattison – 9.1 pts | RB24 | 1.6x value

Greg Dortch – 1.2 pts | WR100000 | 0.2x value

Jalen Tolbert – 18.2 pts | WR9 | 3.6x value 

Juaun Jennings – 1.8 pts | WR 10000 |  0.3x value

 

BUZZ YOUR GIRLFRIEND…WOOF. Tough go this week. A few bright spots but for the most we had a swing and a miss on most of these low owned plays.  DK had an average return of 2.04x (without Doubs who was ruled out after this came out for ‘personal reasons’), FD was 1.84x.

Another week where TE’s were n absolute dumpster fire. I’m not sure what the deal is, but literally every week it’s another nobody at the top of the scoring for TE’s and it’s never a big score. (Though a CHALKY Tucker Kraft got there this week).

We finally got a switch BACK to elite QB’s doing well this week, as predicted, unfortunately it wasn’t OUR QB as Allen had a very mediocre result, and struggled mightly to throw the ball.

Our big hits this week were Brian Thomas Jr., Bo Nix, and Jalen Tolbert who all had excellent returns not only on their salary but ownership as well. 30% hit rate ain’t the worst, but for you my people, we want all TEN to smash.

One thing to note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Baker Mayfield  QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: 3.19%

Salary: DK $6500

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside in this spot and is currently trending towards low single digit ownership.

That player this week is Baker Mayfield, who surprisingly is trending towards about 3% ownership. According to DFSSpreadsheets breakdown, this game is the 3rd best stack option and is an environment that I absolutely love to utilize in my lineups.

Mayfield has really only had one game where he struggled this year, and that was at home against the elite Denver defense, this Saints D is good but they aren’t the Broncos.

Mayfield has had some intriguing rushing upside of late, and that helps him increase his ceiling. Stack him up with Evans/Godwin and let it buck. Run it back with Chris Olave who chalk cheap QB Spencer Rattler says he wants to get the ball to everytime he’s on the field, and you have a beauty of a game stack that can take down a GPP.

Tyjae Spears RB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 2%

Salary: DK $5100

Everyone is going to play Tony Pollard this week, and rightfully so as this is a fantastic spot, but man…Tyjae is getting 40% of the snaps and is about 1/20th of the ownership.

The floor is solid at this price, and I think the ceiling is sneaky high. Great correlated leverage play in an elite spot against the Colts defense that couldn’t stop my grandma running the ball.

Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 5.6%

Salary: DK $6300

Love both sides of this game as it is an elite passing environment. Way underowned for a guy that is the WR2 in this high powered offense.

Leading the team in Air yards AND Yards after catch. Both indicators that he has the potential for a big game. Everyone is on Sun God here, but I love Williams in this spot on both sites.

Ja’Lynn Polk WR New England Patriots

Ownership: 4%

Salary: DK $3600

Polk played every single snap for the Pats last week, which at this price tag, is pretty nice to have. He’s got a solid floor that should easily smash his price tag regardless of the game flow.

Add in that Drake Maye is now starting, and I think he has some very intriguing upside. Maye has a much bigger arm than Jacoby Brissett, and that suits Polk’s skill set. The big question mark here is if the Patriots offensive line will give Maye enough time to throw the deep ball/read through his progressions, but if they do, I think Polk has a nice game incoming.

Kyle Pitts TE Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 4.4%

Salary: DK $4400

Pitts finally had his first relevant fantasy game in about a million years last week, so obviously I’m chasing it again!

In all seriousness we’ve been talking about Pitts upside forever and have said that he just needs a legitimate QB, well, now he has one and showed it last week. There’s still a ton of volatility here as he showed two weeks ago when he got a big, fat, zero, but in this matchup against the lowly Panthers, I think he smashes.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 5.68%

Salary: FD $7700

Wrote up Williams above in the DK portion, but I do love Goff as well, especially on FD where he’s going to be massively underowned in an elite game environment.

Goff went a perfect 18/18 last game and threw for 2 TD passes, while also catching one from Amon Ra St. Brown. Now I don’t think that he’s going to be a regular part of the receiving corps, but the multiple TD upside is there in this game against a Cowboys D that has struggled at times to stop the pass.

My one concern here is the two headed monster in the backfield sucking up all the tuddies, but the Cowboys rush D has looked a bit better, so there’s potential that the Lions have to air it out more.

I do think this is one of the better game stacks on the slate, and it’s likely that for Goff to get there, he’ll need some Cowboys to get it going too. We want a shoot out here.

Stack pieces are obviously St. Brown, Williams, and LaPorta (who is my favorite TE but is mega chalk) and on the other side you have Lamb, Tolbert, and even Kavontae Turpin as viable run it back pieces.

Jordan Love QB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: FD: 3.79%

Salary: FD $8500

I absolutely hate to say it as a Vikings fan, but Jordan Love is a legitimate stud.

He’s likely getting all his weapons back this week as Romeo Doubs was reinstated from his suspension on Monday and Christian Watson has been practicing in a limited fashion.

The Cardinals are a pass funnel defense, and with the running game not really taking any of the tuddies, the upside here is pretty high.

Last week, Love relied almost entirely on Tucker Kraft as the TE, but I think that’s a trap this week with the elevated ownership of Kraft. Reed is my favorite stack piece, followed by Wicks/Doubs. Run it back with Conner if you want or the highly volatile Marvin Harrison Jr.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB New York Giants

Ownership: FD 1.44%

Salary: FD $5800

Went wild last week with Devin Singletary out. 129 yards rushing, no TD’s though. Singletary has been limited this week and likely gets some run, but I’m not sure how you go back to him with how electric Tracy looked.

Bengals are one of the WORST teams against the rush in the NFL and this is a smash spot. I expect a much bigger role, even if Singletary is ‘healthy’ and would assume we see more passing game work as well as Eric Gray looked pretty poor, and had a terrible fumble. Cheap with a ton of upside.

Darnell Mooney WR Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 5.83%

Salary: FD $6500

Had arguably his best out of this career last week against the Bucs and now goes up against a Panthers Defense that can’t stop anyone.

Has never had a QB like Cousins who can get him the ball deep with some accuracy and he took advantage of it last week as he brought in two tuddies on a ridiculous 16 targets. That volume isn’t sustainable but he has the huge game potential week in and week out in this offense just given his skill set.

Has been dealing with a bit of a knee injury that has limited him in practice but should be fine here. In fact, it’s probably better to have that Q tag as it will keep the ownership lower than it should be.

AJ Brown WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: FD 9%

Salary: FD: $8100

Brown is returning this week as his hamstring has now fully healed after resting it again in the Bye Week. Full participant all week in practice and will be a welcome return to this offense.

The Browns (not AJ) have been absolutely torched on the outside by receivers and I think that we will see him have a huge game. He probably climbs a little over 10% by the end of the week, but well worth it for the ceiling that he brings.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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