Welcome back to another edition of “Part the Cloud”, where we explore defensive coverage schemes to uncover hidden gem wide receivers.
Gotta Know Where You’ve Been
Last week, we examined four receivers:
– Marvin Harrison Jr.: 32.00 DK fantasy points (FPTS) at 3.6% ownership (4.64x)
– Jameson Williams: 14.40 FPTS at 8.6% ownership (2.72x)
– Malik Nabers: 31.70 FPTS at 17.6% ownership (5.98x)
– Greg Dortch: 3.10 FPTS at 3.5% ownership (0.72x)
Performance Analysis
– Marvin Harrison was my top play, delivering exceptional results.
– Malik Nabers also performed well despite high ownership.
– Jameson Williams showed promise but fell short without a touchdown.
– Greg Dortch was a disappointment.
…To Know Where You’re Going
This week features several low-scoring games, leaving us with three high-total matchups, one of which we’ll focus on.
Zay Flowers
– DraftKings: $6,800 (Projected Ownership: 5.5%)
– FanDuel: $6,800 (Projected Ownership: 7.56%)
Dallas’s defense emphasizes stopping the run. After last week, they will likely refocus on this strategy, potentially forcing Lamar Jackson to throw more. Zay Flowers should benefit from this, as he excels against both man (71.2% success rate) and zone coverage (85%). He’ll likely become a favored target for Jackson, particularly against rookie CB Caelen Carson, who is filling in for the injured Daron Bland. Flowers is poised to exploit this matchup and could be a strong play regardless of game dynamics.
Stefon Diggs
– DraftKings: $6,600 (Projected Ownership: 5.95%)
– FanDuel: $6,900 (Projected Ownership: 7.56%)
Stefon Diggs has transitioned into a slot receiver role, allowing him to get open quickly, especially in the red zone. CJ Stroud needs this quickness to succeed against the Vikings, who are blitzing at the sixth highest rate in the league and generating significant pressure. Stroud has struggled against Cover 1, which is likely to feature prominently in a Brian Flores defense. With the Vikings being top 10 against the run, we can expect Stroud to rely heavily on the pass, making Diggs a key target.
Justin Jefferson
– DraftKings: $8,600 (Projected Ownership: 8.07%)
– FanDuel: $9,200 (Projected Ownership: 8.8%)
With Houston ranking among the top 10 defenses against the run, Sam Darnold is expected to air it out, benefiting Justin Jefferson significantly. He’ll face Derek Stingley Jr., likely in a mix of Cover 3 and Cover 1. Jefferson is the standout receiver for Minnesota, especially in a game with a close spread and high total. He excels against both man and zone coverage, making him a prime candidate to score given Minnesota’s high implied team total.
In My Mentions
Michael Wilson
– DraftKings: $4,100 (Projected Ownership: 1.64%)
– FanDuel: $5,000 (Projected Ownership: 1.41%)
Before Marvin Harrison Jr. emerged, Wilson was projected as the X receiver. With Detroit frequently playing man coverage, Wilson could find relevance in this game, particularly due to his ability to exploit man coverage. Consider him as a second WR option in Arizona stacks rather than a direct replacement for Harrison.
In Summary
We covered a lot of ground this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me as TreyJ989 in the channels. Let’s make bold moves out there!
