10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 4 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 3 Recap:

Draftkings:

Geno Smith – 13.36 pts | QB17 | 2.38x value

Josh Jacobs – 5.8 pts | RB36| 0.85x value

James Conner – 3.5 pts | RB39 | 0.53x value

Justin Jefferson – 20.1 pts | WR11 | 2.33x value 

Quentin Johnston – 12.4 pts | WR28  | 2.69x value

Fanduel:

Derek Carr – 8.98 pts| QB24| 1.1x value

Sam Darnold – 23.34 pts | QB6 | 3.3x value

Zamir White – 3.4 pts | RB41| 0.6x value

Adam Thielen  – 11.5 pts | WR21 | 2.3x value 

Dallas Goedert – 25 pts | TE1 |  4.3x value

Woof, I get that scoring was down a bit this week, but man, not great on either site. DK had an average return of 1.74x and FD was 2.32x.

Again this week, due to scoring being down overall, you really didn’t stand a chance unless you played Juaun Jennings of winning anything significant (can we talk about that performance for a second? Wow!)

The positive I draw from this though, is that if we continue on this sort, one guy smashes/gotta have him type of slates, we are likely to hit somewhere if we focus on low owned plays. Dallas Goedert was that guy this week, ending up as the TE1. Let’s see if we can find 2 of them this week!

One thing to note though is that, chalk is chalk for a reason. Players that are highly owned are highly owned because they are great plays. What we are looking for is that diamond in the rough that differentiates you from everyone else and brings you to the top of the GPP. Sometimes though, we gotta kiss a few frogs before getting to the princess!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Sam Darnold QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: 3.21%

Salary: DK $5700

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the Milly Maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Ownership projections are again fairly flat right now among the QB’s so it’s not like ANYONE is a chalk bomb BUT, there are guys trending towards lower ownership that I think have massive upside, and he’s had it for three weeks, in fact, he’s been mentioned here MULTIPLE times so far this season and people still can’t figure it out…

In the year of our Lord, 2024, Sam Darnold is one of the best QB’s in the league. AND HE’S MASSIVELY UNDEROWNED…AGAIN.

Darn Daddy has balled out every single week this season and I expect him to do it again, on the road, against the Packers in a huge divisional game. Not only has he done it every single week, he’s done it without some of his best weapons, like Jordan Addison who is expected to return this week. Addison and Jefferson, when healthy are one of the best combos in the NFL and both are viable to pair with Darnold this week, though I prefer a healthy JJettas who has been a monster this season.

I get that this is an Aaron Jones revenge game, and while I think he gets his, there’s going to be plenty to go around as the Vikings roll the Packers and a less than 100% Jordan Love. Vikings D have been elite this season, so I’m actually expecting them to dominate. I think you could feasibly run a funky silly for the milly lineup with Vikings D, Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson.

Brian Robinson Jr. RB Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 10.3%

Salary: DK $6100

With Austin Ekeler out with a concussion, Robinson becomes an elite play this week and what I like to refer to as correlated leverage. It’s not a guarantee but it’s likely that if Robinson is having a great game, then Jayden Daniels likely not having a monster, and as the chalk, that can be a big thing for anyone NOT playing him./

Already averaging 15 carries a game and almost 2 receptions and those numbers are likely to go up significantly here.

His ownership is going to go up as we’ve already seen but should hover right around 10. Great play on both sites.

Drake London WR Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 6.76%

Salary: DK $6600

London is playing the Puka Nacua role in this Zac Robinson offense, and with Kirk Cousins finally starting to look like Kirk Cousins, the ceiling is massive here.

Heading to play the Saints who have been great but London is a stud and I think he continues to see his production increase week in and week out.

DJ Moore WR Chicago Bears 

Ownership: 7.37%

Salary: DK $6700

Caleb Williams game is starting to improve as he gets more and more comfortable. His offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, is doing everything he can to ruin it for him, but he’s still able to throw the ball a bit, and DJ Moore has been the biggest beneficiary of that.

Has a massive 28 targets on the year and has seen his yardage go up weekly. Due a touchdown and the matchup against the Rams should lead to at least one, if not two.

Tee Higgins WR Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 4.5%

Salary: DK $5900

Higgins returned last week and had 6 targets from Burrow, bringing in 3 for 39 yards. A very pedestrian line, but we saw this with Chase in his first week back, where he struggled to integrate early but smashed in his second week back.

The Panthers are not a great defense (though they stifled the Raiders last week) and this game has the potential to blow up. My big concern here is actually the weather as the remnants of the Hurricane could feasibly cause some issues, but we need to wait and see on that.

Regardless, I think we get Higgins at a low price/ownership combo and he has a big time ceiling. Also a little correlated leverage on Ja’marr Chase.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD 2.85%

Salary: FD $7400

Mayfield has had a fantastic 2024 and he better show up this week after saying some inflammatory things about Tom Brady on a podcast and then getting beat up by the Broncos D.

In all seriousness though, the Bucs offense should be able to move the ball against the Eagles who have struggled outside of Jalen Carter who causes some havoc. Mayfield is one of the cheaper QB’s who has some serious upside at low ownership. I love Godwin’s role in this offense and he is my favorite pairing, but Evans can go for 3 TD’s any game too so both are viable stack pieces, though I’m not convinced you need both.

Derek Carr QB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD: 2.0%

Salary: FD $7600

Carr had a struggle bus performance at home against the Eagles last week in a game that was supposed to blow up but turned into a defensive battle.

Going right back to the well with Carr though, and really going back to the Klint Kubiak well, as I think his creativity with this offense will shine against the Falcons.

Kamara is dealing with an injury but is likely to play, though I’m not sure we want to stack that. Olave is the guy here and he and Carr have a real connection. Love running a game stack here with Carr/Olave/London.

Zack Moss RB Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: FD 8.85%

Salary: FD $6900

I like Moss in general, but IF we get some remnants of the Hurricane and the weather is sloppy, Moss is a smash play.

He’s already established himself as the lead back and has shown that he can handle some volume and had an impressive SIX targets last week. One of the better cheap RB’s on Fanduel that isn’t going to be mega chalk and he’s in a great spot.

Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: FD 4.2%

Salary: FD $6000

Shakir is the best receiver in this offense and has some incredibly sure hands, bringing in almost everything thrown his way. He NEEDS to get the ball more and I think he will in this game.

Allen has been spreading it around a ton, but this matchup for Shakir is elite and he’s going to have a blow up game at some point. Love the Sunday hammer game and always want to target someone, and with Allen just being too expensive for me, I want to grab Shakir to get exposure.

Tommy Tremble TE Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 1.65%

Salary: FD: $4900

Who the heck is Tommy Tremble?!

Well my friends, he’s the starting TE for your rejuvenated Carolina Panthers!

Andy Dalton started last week and had a HUGE game to get everyone excited about the Panthers.  And while I think they are better with him at the helm, I don’t think they are now some offensive juggernaut. They are going to move the ball more efficiently though and now with Thielen out for a few weeks, I expect we see Tremble get a few more looks.

He’s mega cheap, and could easily end up with single digit points, but I love what your lineup looks like with a super cheap TE in it, especially one that I think could find the end zone here.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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