Kickstart your excitement for Week 18 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Dec 31, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) hands the ball off to running back James Conner (6) against the Philadelphia Eagles during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks:
Nick Mullens ($5.1k at Detroit Lions)
Mullens is going to return as the starting quarterback for the the Vikings in this one after being benched for Jaren Hall last week, but starting the second half in his place. He has at least 22 DraftKings points in his last two starts including a big game against this Lions team. Detroit’s defense has not been good as of late and is currently ranked 28th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks on the season. He has some solid stacking options with guys like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as well. The Domination Station has him projected for 16.95 DraftKings points giving him 3.32x his current price tag.
Geno Smith ($6.1k at Arizona Cardinals)
The Seahawks need to win and hope for some help in order to get to the playoffs, so Geno and this offense will be a full go in this one. He has at least 17 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets a great matchup against Arizona here. The Cardinals rank 31st in DVOA against the pass on the season and 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. Geno comes with some great stacking pieces as well with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba. We have him him projected for 18.4 DraftKings points giving him 3.02x his current salary.
Easton Stick ($5.0k vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Stick isn’t exactly my favorite quarterback, as I think this Chargers team has mailed it in for the season, but he’s cheap enough to warrant a look here. He has at least 32 pass attempts in three straight and brings a solid rushing floor as well. This Chiefs’ defense has fallen off as of late and can be vulnerable, although his pass-catching options are slim unless Keenan Allen returns… which I highly doubt. Our lineup optimizer has Stick projected for 15.11 DraftKings points giving him 3.02x his price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Running Backs:
James Conner ($6.1k vs. Seattle Seahawks)
Conner was a madman last week against the Eagles and has been in great form as of late with at least 22 DraftKings points in three of his last four. The matchup looks great here as well, Seattle ranks 28th in DvP against opposing running backs. There’s a solid pass-game floor/ceiling here as well for Conner. The Domination Station has him projected for 15.21 DraftKings points giving him 2.49x his price tag.
Ezekiel Elliott ($5.9k vs. New York Jets)
Zeke has been fairly solid since taking over as the workhorse for the Patriots and the volume is certainly there with at least an 81% snap share in four straight weeks. The Jets’ defense is great, but they can be got on the ground, they rank 26th in DvP against opposing running backs on the season. Zeke has also seen a bunch of targets in the air as well which gives him a nice floor/ceiling combination. He has the highest projected ceiling of the three running backs I’ll talk about as well. We have him projected for 14.27 DraftKings points giving him 2.42x his current price tag.
Bijan Robinson ($6.6k at New Orleans Saints)
Bijan has certainly been volatile this season, but the raw talent and upside are clearly there. I don’t love the matchup against a good Saints defense, but he was able to put up 27.3 DraftKings points against them in week 12. The Saints rank 25th in DVOA against the run but 5th in DvP, so that tells me opposing teams have had positive game scripts but the defensive unit is pretty good. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 15.8 DraftKings points giving him 2.39x his price tag.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Wide Receivers:
CeeDee Lamb ($9.3k at Washington Commanders)
It’s always good when high-priced guys grade out as good point-per-dollar plays as well, and that’s the case with Lamb here. He’s been as consistent as they come since about week 5… double-digit targets in five straight games and averaging over 100 receiving yards per game on the season. He had 17.3 DraftKings points in this spot in week 12, but they didn’t really need him as they won by 35 points. Blowout is certainly in the cards again here, but the matchup is elite. The Domination Station has him projected for 22.52 DraftKings points giving him 2.42x his current price tag.
Tyler Lockett ($5.6k at Arizona Cardinals)
I touched on Lockett’s quarterback in the quarterback section, so we get a good point-per-dollar stack if you want to pair him up with Geno in this spot. He can be extremely volatile as we’ve seen as of late, he’s been held under 10 DraftKings points in three of his last five but the targets have still been there, and is always capable of the deep touchdown. He matches up with the Cardinals defense that ranks dead last in DVOA on the season. We have him projected for 13.04 DraftKings points giving him 2.33x his price tag.
Justin Jefferson ($8.5k at Detroit Lions)
Jefferson struggled last week, but likely due to his quarterbacks struggling as well. He has 10 targets in three straight weeks and gets a good matchup against the Lions in this one. Similar to Lockett, we touched on Jefferson’s quarterback in the quarterback section of this article, so we can make a nice point per dollar stack with Mullens. The Lions rank 30th in DvP against opposing wide receivers on the season and he put up 29.1 DraftKings points in this spot two weeks ago. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 19.67 DraftKings points giving him 2.31x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Tight Ends:
Juwan Johnson ($3.6k vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Johnson had a great game last week and now has at least 11 DraftKings points in three straight games. Back-to-back games with at least 7 targets and gets an elite matchup against a Falcons team that ranks 26th in DvP against opposing tight-ends. He’s dirt cheap and doesn’t have to do a ton to pay off this salary. The Domination Station has him projected for 8.72 DraftKings points giving him 2.42x his price tag.
Chig Okongwo ($3.5k vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Chig isn’t a sexy option by any means but we saw his upside in week 16 against the Seahawks, that said he had to get into the endzone to do so. If he can find the end zone here we probably feel good about his production at this price tag. He has 6 targets in three of his last five games and the Jaguars rank 22nd in DvP against opposing tight ends this season. We have him projected for 8.26 DraftKings points giving him 2.36x his current price tag.
Evan Engram ($5.4k at Tennessee Titans)
Engram has been about as consistent as they come at the position this season and is seeing some steady targets. He could take a hit with Christian Kirk potentially back in this one, but he was good with him in the lineup earlier this season. The matchup is pretty tough with that said, the Titans’ secondary is atrocious but they’re the best team in terms of DvP against opposing tight ends on the season. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 12.6 DraftKings points giving him 2.33x his current price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Defense/Special Teams:
Los Angeles Chargers $2.8k – The matchup looks worse at first glance, but I don’t think we need to be afraid of this Chiefs offense at this point in the season. Even more so now that the Chiefs don’t have anything to play for and will be starting a lot of their backups including Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.
Green Bay Packers $3.1k – Nice bounce-back game for this defense last week on Sunday Night Football against the Vikings. They’ll look solid again against the Bears in this one, Justin Fields is certainly prone to making mistakes. They put up 15 DraftKings points in this spot in week 1 on the road, this game is in Green Bay, I like them a good deal here and they’re getting healthier with guys like Jaire Alexander, De’Vondre Campbell, and Quay Walker back at practice.
Denver Broncos $2.8k – Not the sexiest play, especially against a Raiders team that has turned a corner as of late. That said, the Raiders offense doesn’t scare me all that much, I have no issue getting to this team as a value option.
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