Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/9:
Jan 7, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) celebrates after he made basket against the Atlanta Hawks during overtime at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going position by position and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
NBA DFS Point Guard Plays:
Spend up: Luka Doncic (DraftKings $11.5k; FanDuel $12.2k)
Luka is going to look like the top raw option on the slate and I think we may actually have the value to make it work, which we’ll touch on it in a bit with the injuries for Ja Morant and Cade Cunningham. The matchup is great, Memphis is allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards on the season. It’s hard to put an exact position on Luka, but he starts at point guard and handles a lot of the usage for the team, so it checks out. He’s also averaged 69.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Grizzlies on the season, he’s going to look like a great option in all formats if we can find the salary to get to him.
Mid-range: Marcus Smart (DraftKings $6.3k; FanDuel $7.0k)
We got some big news out of Memphis last night with Ja Morant scheduling season-ending shoulder surgery. I would expect Marcus Smart to slide over and start at point guard with Morant out and is a guy I love going back to in this one. He’s played massive minutes over his last couple of games and has at least 43 DraftKings points in each game. With Ja Morant off of the court this season, Smart has a 23.2% usage rate and 0.98 fantasy points per minute and gets a great matchup against a fast-paced Dallas defense.
Value: Killian Hayes (DraftKings $4.5k; FanDuel $6.0k)
FanDuel did a better job at pricing Hayes up, but I still think he’s going to look solid here with Cade Cunningham already ruled out for the next few games. I would expect Hayes to be re-inserted into the starting lineup as the team’s starting point guard. With Cunningham off of the court this season, Hayes has an 18.5% usage rate and 0.91 fantasy points per minute. Cade hasn’t missed any games this season but if we go back to last season we had a big sample size of 64 games without Cunningham where Hayes averaged 28.8 DraftKings/28.6 FanDuel points per game.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Plays:
Spend up: Kyrie Irving (DraftKings $8.8k; FanDuel $9.3k)
Kyrie generally isn’t a guy I get a ton of any time Luka Doncic is in there, but I don’t mind going to him in this spot, he’s been in great form as of late. He’s averaging 50.7 DraftKings points per game over his last four games and the matchup looks good against the Grizzlies, as I talked about with Luka, they rank 4th in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards on the season. He struggled in this matchup earlier in this season but mostly due to a bad shooting night going 3-15 from the field, I have no issue going right back to the well in this one.
Mid-range: Immanuel Quickley (DraftKings $7.0k; FanDuel $7.3k)
I think Quickley could be sneaky and come in underowned in this one coming off of a stinker last time out (kind of). His new starting role on the Raptors is a lot more conducive to fantasy points than his role on the Knicks. Since joining the team he has a 23.5% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute. The matchup is great tonight against the Lakers as well, not only are they struggling as a whole, but have allowed some big games to opposing point guards on the season.
Value: Luke Kennard (DraftKings $4.3k; FanDuel $4.3k)
Kennard is never a sexy option, but he’s consistent at a cheap price tag and as we’ve touched on, the Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant which opens up some backcourt minutes on this team. He has a 15.8% usage rate and 0.77 fantasy points per minute with Morant off of the court this season. Like I said, he’s not a guy we need to force in or make a core guy, but if you land on him at this price tag, you can do a lot worse. He’s averaging 16.8 DraftKings points per game over his last five games.
NBA DFS Small Forward Plays:
Spend up: LeBron James (DraftKings $9.8k; FanDuel $10.0k)
The spend-up options are limited at SF tonight, so let’s ride with LeBron James who has a 5.34x point per dollar projection currently in the Domination Station. He’s looked much better as of late with at least 46 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is playing absolutely massive minutes. It’s not my favorite matchup against the Raptors, but also not the worst, he just feels like he’s a couple hundred dollars too cheap and makes sense in all formats.
Mid-range: Bojan Bogdanovic (DraftKings $6.7k; FanDuel $6.8k)
Bojan came crashing down to Earth over his last couple of games after a huge game against the Jazz a few games ago. That said, the last time out was a blowout, but in competitive games, I would expect he sees minutes in the high 30s which gives him a great floor/ceiling especially if that shot is falling. There should be more shots available as well with Cade Cunningham out for the next few games. With Isaiah Stewart and Cunningham off of the court this season, Bogdanovic has a 28.7% usage rate and 1.04 fantasy points per minute.
Value: Josh Hart (DraftKings $4.8k; FanDuel $5.4k)
Hart has been a frustrating roster as of late with being held under 20 fantasy points in two of his last three and then a 40-point performance in between. The minutes have been right around 30 which feels good and he has multi-position eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The matchup is going to look great against a bad Blazers team as well. He’s not a sexy option by any means, but he has 8x upside at this price tag if things fall his way.
NBA DFS Power Forward Plays:
Spend up: Paolo Banchero (DraftKings $9.0k; FanDuel $9.7k)
For whatever reason, Banchero’s price tag hasn’t moved on DraftKings, he has been on an absolute heater as of late and playing 40+ minutes per game. Over his last six games, he’s averaging 58.3 DraftKings points per game and I have no issue riding the heater out with him in this one. It’s not a great matchup against a good defensive team that the Wolves will throw at him, but the production has been too good to ignore at this price tag. The Magic will also be without Franz Wagner again, Paolo has a 33.9% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute with Wagner on the court this season.
Mid-range: Jerami Grant (DraftKings $6.9k; FanDuel $7.6k)
This price tag just feels too low on Grant considering the playing time he should see in competitive games. He’s coming off of playing 42 minutes last time out and shot the ball 24(!) times. They’ll be without Deandre Ayton again in this one, so the rebound equity should still be there. He has a 24.7% usage rate and 0.92 fantasy points per minute with Ayton off of the court this season. It’s not the best matchup against this Knicks team, but I think you can do a lot worse in this price range.
Value: Ziaire Williams (DraftKings $3.6k; FanDuel $4.5k)
There isn’t a ton of cheap value at the PF position unless you want to shift Josh Hart over here on DraftKings, but we can take a look at Ziaire Williams who should see an increase in minutes with Ja Morant and Santi Aldama ruled out and Jaren Jackson Jr. coming in as questionable. He’s been in fairly good form with at least 19 DraftKings points in three straight games and the minutes have been trending in the right direction. If you’re desperate for value, he’s going to look like a solid option in all formats.
NBA DFS Center Plays:
Spend up: Domantas Sabonis (DraftKings $10.0k; FanDuel $10.1k)
Sabonis is going to look awesome in this one, he’s been in great form even with a bit of a stinker last time out, that said, I’m willing to chalk that one up to a blowout and limited minutes. Prior to that game, he was averaging 62 DraftKings points per game in his previous four games. He also gets an absolutely elite matchup against this Pistons team as well, Detroit is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing centers on the season. If we don’t get the value to go all the way up to a guy like Luka, Sabonis is a great secondary spend-up piece.
Mid-range: Jalen Duren (DraftKings $7.0k; FanDuel $7.4k)
On the other side of Sabonis, we get Mr. Jalen Duren who is also going to look like a good option in all formats. Duren has been as consistent as they come and feels like he’s a couple hundred dollars too cheap on both sites. A matchup with the Kings doesn’t scare me either, Sabonis is less than stellar defensively. We don’t have much of a sample size with Cunningham off of the court, but he’s averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute with him and Stewart off of the court.
Value: Bismack Biyombo (DraftKings $4.2k; FanDuel $4.4k)
Biyombo was announced as the starting center last game but then at the last second came off of the bench as Xavier Tillman saw the start… that said, he still saw 26 minutes and now has at least 26 minutes in three straight games. I’m going to operate under the assumption that Biyombo is the starter and even if he isn’t, I think he’s the guy you want in this frontcourt. The Grizzlies will be without Santi Aldama and potentially Jaren Jackson as well, so the minutes should be available. The matchup is also elite as well, this Dallas frontcourt isn’t great, so I have no issue going to Bismack as a value piece on this slate.
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