Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/19:
Jan 17, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Anfernee Simons (1) celebrates after scoring the game winning basket during the second half against the Brooklyn Nets at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going position by position and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
NBA DFS Point Guard Plays:
Spend up: Tyrese Haliburton (DraftKings $9.9k; FanDuel $10.7k)
We need a few things to break our way in order to feel good about Haliburton here, first off, he needs to play. He was questionable yesterday but was ultimately ruled out on the front end of a back-to-back, but I do think he has a better chance of playing tonight. We’ll also want to make sure he’s not on any sort of minutes restriction, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. All that said, he’s stupidly underpriced on DraftKings at sub-$10k. We’ve seen him over $11k at times this season and prior to his injury he had at least 54 DraftKings points in seven of eight games. The matchup is elite against a terrible Blazers team as well, if all checks out, Haliburton looks awesome tonight.
Mid-range: Anfernee Simons (DraftKings $7.8k; FanDuel $7.6k)
To the other side of that Pacers game! Simons has been volatile as of late but mostly due to losing minutes in a blowout, we saw him bounce back over his last two games and it’s no coincidence that those were competitive games. He’s going to play massive minutes in competitive games, this game has a spread of just 5.5, so I would expect a full boat of minutes for Simons. The matchup is elite in a fast-paced matchup against the fastest team in the league with the Pacers… also a team that isn’t playing a whole lot of defense, and their defense didn’t get better by trading Bruce Brown.
Value: Malcolm Brogdon (DraftKings $5.4k; FanDuel $6.3k)
Sticking with the Blazers here, Brogdon has seen more consistent minutes over his last few games and should continue tonight with Shaedon Sharpe out again. With Sharpe off of the court this season, Brogdon has a 21.5% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute. Similar to Simons, he gets an elite matchup against a fast-paced Pacers team… also, a REVENGE GAME! He’s been volatile this season but mostly due to his minutes, when he’s out there, he generally produces.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Plays:
Spend up: Devin Booker (DraftKings $9.1k; FanDuel $9.7k)
There aren’t a whole lot of spend-up options at shooting guard tonight, Booker is the only guy over $9k, so I guess he’s our spend-up guy! I will say, that I don’t love him considering the other options, current state it may be more of a spend down/mid-range position. Booker came down to Earth last time out but has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. He’s playing big minutes and the matchup doesn’t bother me, he’ll also go low-owned (as I write this), so no issue with him as a GPP leverage piece.
Mid-range: Devin Vassell (DraftKings $6.7k; FanDuel $6.9k)
The Spurs will be without Victor Wembanyama tonight which will open up a ton of usage in this offense which is going to make Vassell and his teammates look pretty good. With Wemby off of the court this season, Vassell has a 25.9% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute on the season. Not to mention, they get an elite matchup against this Hornets team as well. He’s due for some positive shooting regression coming off of back-to-back 0-5 from deep range, I like Vassell quite a bit in this one with PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings, but no issue with just SG on FanDuel.
Value: Julian Champagnie (DraftKings $3.5k; FanDuel $4.5k)
Value isn’t the best at SG either, but you could go up to Brogdon who we touched on in the point guard section. I don’t mind Julian Champagnie here, however. He’s shown a nice ceiling this season when given the opportunity and has great positional eligibility with SG/SF on DraftKings, but certainly in play as a SF on FanDuel. Similar to Vassell, it’s a great matchup against the Hornets and he could run into a few more minutes with Wemby ruled out. He has an 18.4% usage rate and 0.83 fantasy points per minute with Wemby off of the court this season.
NBA DFS Small Forward Plays:
Spend up: LeBron James (DraftKings $9.5k; FanDuel $10.0k)
LeBron James comes into this one as questionable (drink), but I’ll just operate under the assumption that he’s good to go as he has been all season. He hasn’t been in the best form as of late but the minutes are there and this matchup doesn’t bother me one bit. The Nets are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing wings on the season, so LeBron should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. The Domination Station has him projected for 48.1 DraftKings points giving him 5.1x his current price tag.
Mid-range: Keldon Johnson (DraftKings $6.4k; FanDuel $7.0k)
Have you noticed the Spurs are going to look like good point-per-dollar options yet? Keldon Johnson is no exception, he’s going to look great as well with Victor Wembanyama out in a great matchup with the Hornets. The Hornets are allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing wings on the season. He has a 26.1% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Wemby off of the court this season and will look like a strong option in all formats.
Value: Saddiq Bey (DraftKings $5.5k; FanDuel $5.8k)
Yet another position where the cheap value isn’t great unless you want to slide Champagnie over which is firmly in play, so I’m going to cheap a little and go up to the $5k range. Bey has been playing a ton of minutes ever since De’Andre Hunter went down and that won’t change here. It’s not my favorite matchup against the Heat, but he’s averaging 27 DraftKings points per game in two games against Miami this season. He has multi-position eligibility as well which helps lineup construction.
NBA DFS Power Forward Plays:
Spend up: Anthony Davis (DraftKings $10.2k; FanDuel $11.5k)
I love going right back to the well with Anthony Davis here, he’s a guy I’ve been playing a ton of as of late. He’s averaging 55 DraftKings points per game over his last five games and clearly still has a massive ceiling as well. The Nets also don’t really have the size to deal with him down low, yes they’ll throw Nic Claxton on him, but Davis is just bigger. The Domination Station likes him as well, projecting him for 52.8 DraftKings points giving him 5.18x his current salary.
Mid-range: Miles Bridges (DraftKings $7.1k; FanDuel $7.4k)
Bridges grades out as one of the top point-per-dollar options in the optimizer right now and for good reason. He gets a great matchup against an already bad Spurs team and now they’ll be without their best player and best interior defender in Victor Wembanyama. He’ll continue to play huge minutes with Gordon Hayward and Mark Williams already ruled out, but guys like Brandon Miller and Nick Richards come into this one as questionable as well. All that to say, he’s just underpriced, we’re used to seeing him in the $8k range, yes LaMelo Ball is back, but Bridges looks great here.
Value: Onyeka Okongwu (DraftKings $4.3k; FanDuel $6.2k)
I will say… Okongwu looks a lot better on DraftKings than FanDuel where he’s nearly $2k cheaper. This is another spot where he’s just flat-out underpriced, we’ve seen him in the mid-$5k range, sometimes $6k range, this season, and now he’s nearly $4k? Nothing on this team has changed and he’s still splitting minutes with Clint Capela at the five. He’s a great per-minute guy, right around a fantasy point per minute, it’s not my favorite matchup, but again, he’s just too cheap.
NBA DFS Center Plays:
Spend up: Joel Embiid (DraftKings $11.5k; FanDuel $12.4k)
What’s not to like with Joel Embiid right now? The guy is an animal and has at least 61 DraftKings points in 16 of his last 17 games… he’s going to look like the top raw option on the slate and I have no qualms with that. The matchup isn’t the best, Goga Bitadze has been playing some unreal defense this season, but you could put Shaq out there and I don’t think it would matter right now. The issue could come with the value opening up to the point where we can pay up for him, but if we can, great!
Mid-range: Bam Adebayo (DraftKings $8.7k; FanDuel $9.3k)
Tough game for Bam last time out against the Raptors but gets an elite bounce-back spot in this one against the Hawks. It’s a huge pace-up spot for the Heat against the 3rd fastest team in the league, they’ll be looking at a +5.4 boost in pace factor. He’s also performed well in this matchup already this season averaging 52.3 DraftKings points per game in two games. It helps that the price tag has come down as well, the Research Station loves him, projecting him for 50.1 DraftKings points giving him 5.76x his current price tag.
Value: Wendell Carter Jr. (DraftKings $4.5k; FanDuel $6.0k)
Carter Jr. looked great last time out against the Hawks and has at least 23 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. The Magic want to start working him back into the rotation more and more but it’s been difficult with how well Goga Bitadze is playing defensively (a good problem to have), that said, there’s a world where Goga gets into foul trouble against Embiid down low and funnels a bunch of minutes to Carter Jr. here. It’s not the sole reason I like Carter, but the minutes ceiling is there. The price tag looks great and I would expect a base of 20-25 minutes for a 1.1 fantasy point per minute player.
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