Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/16:
Jan 5, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) reacts against the New York Knicks in the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going position by position and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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NBA DFS Point Guard Plays:
Spend up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings $10.4k; FanDuel $11.4k)
Shai is going to look great again in this one even after a middling game last night. He came into that game listed as questionable with a knee issue but sounds like he’ll be good to go again tonight. On short slates, raw points matter, so even at this price tag, he’s extremely hard to ignore. He had a massive game against the Clippers earlier this season as well with 59 DraftKings points, so clearly the matchup doesn’t seem to bother him. The Domination Station has him projected for 52.9 DraftKings points giving him 5.1x his current price tag.
Mid-range: James Harden (DraftKings $8.1k; FanDuel $8.1k)
Harden has cooled off a bit over his last few games, particularly in the scoring department, but the minutes are still there. He’s another guy who had a massive game against this Thunder team earlier this season with 51.75 DraftKings points. The Thunder have been good defensively, but the price tag looks great if you’re able to overlook his recent game logs. Our lineup optimizer has Harden projected for 40.9 DraftKings points giving him 5.05x his current price tag.
Value: Reggie Jackson (DraftKings $3.9k; FanDuel $5.3k)
It’s a three-game slate, so the value is going to be interesting… the price tag on Jackson here is obviously better on DraftKings and probably only a play for me over there, but he helps get to the higher-priced guys on this slate. He has at least 15.5 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and playing around 20 minutes per game. The other thing we need to watch is the Denver injury report, as I write this, the whole starting five is listed as questionable. If Jamal Murray ends up missing I would expect Jackson to move into the starting lineup and then would become a great play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With Murray off of the court this season, he has a 24.0% usage rate and 1.0 fantasy points per minute. If any of the other starting pieces are out and Murray plays he probably sees a few extra minutes… if the Nuggets decide to take the night off and rest all of these guys, he’s going to look great, but Murray is the key.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Plays:
Spend up: Paul George (DraftKings $8.4k; FanDuel $8.3k)
PG13 came down to Earth last time out in a tough matchup against the Wolves, but he’s been in great form as of late. Prior to that game, he was averaging 46.1 DraftKings points per game in his last four games. He had a fine game in this matchup earlier in this season, but I think the question comes down to whether or not we play Paul George or James Harden at a similar price tag. Honestly, I don’t think there is a firm answer, but I have no issue playing them together, we’ve seen them have big games in the same game this season. The Domination Station has him projected for 43.9 DraftKings points giving him 5.22x his current price tag.
Mid-range: Malik Monk (DraftKings $6.5k; FanDuel $6.8k)
Monk was a guy I wanted a ton of last time out against the Bucks, and it worked out great, helped a little bit by overtime but he shot a ton of field goals and free throws. I have no issue going right back to the well in a game that I think goes over the 243.5 implied total. He hasn’t produced all that well in this matchup this season, but it’s mostly a minutes thing in those games, if the minutes are there in this one, I think he looks great coming off of the bench.
Value: Eric Gordon (DraftKings $4.2k; FanDuel $4.8k)
SG value isn’t great so this isn’t going to be the sexiest play, things could open up if we end up getting some players out in Denver, but as of now, I think Gordon is our best option. Gordon has played around 25 minutes per game as of late but hasn’t been all that impressive. He’s averaged 19.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Kings this season. Again, he’s not a guy I think we need to force in, but if he makes your lineup work, I get it.
NBA DFS Small Forward Plays:
Spend up: Kawhi Leonard (DraftKings $8.5k; FanDuel $8.8k)
It’s going to be tough to determine which of this Clippers’ big three we want to play especially considering they’re all in a similar price range. It may come down to what position you need, but Kawhi is just as good of an option as those other two. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in three straight games and comes with SF/PF eligibility which is generally very beneficial. He did miss the game against the Thunder earlier this season so maybe we take those Harden and George performances with a grain of salt. The Domination Station has him projected for 44.0 DraftKings points giving him 5.18x his current price tag.
Mid-range: Jalen Williams (DraftKings $7.3k; FanDuel $7.8k)
His price tag is up, but it’s hard to ignore the production Jalen Williams is putting up right now. He is averaging 41 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and this Clippers team doesn’t have a whole lot of rim protection with Ivica Zubac out. He had a solid game in this matchup earlier this season and on a short slate I think we can get away with paying a premium for a player who has been as consistent as Jalen Williams. Our lineup optimizer projects he has the highest ceiling at the position of anyone sub-$8k.
Value: Christian Braun (DraftKings $3.6k; FanDuel $3.9k)
I’ll start by saying that I don’t think Braun is truly in play unless any of these Denver guys get ruled out. If they have a full squad, I just think we have to go somewhere else for value. He needs more minutes than he’s seeing in order to be a playable option, or at least feel good about being a playable option. That said, we’ve seen a solid ceiling from him when he gets the opportunity, and has some nice SG/SF eligibility. If things break right, he could be a valuable option tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Plays:
Spend up: Kevin Durant (DraftKings $9.2k; FanDuel $9.7k)
I think Durant looks great at this price tag, he’s been one of the more consistent producers in the league this season and the security of the minutes certainly helps. The Kings are a bottom 5 defense when it comes to allowing scoring to opposing wings and what does Durant do best? You guessed it, score! The lineup optimizer has Durant projected as the 2nd best overall point per dollar option on the slate at 5.45x his price tag which puts him at 50.2 DraftKings points.
Mid-range: Keegan Murray (DraftKings $6.3k; FanDuel $6.6k)
Murray comes into this one listed as questionable, so make sure he’s good to go here but he’s coming off of a rough game last time out against the Bucks. That said, he left that game early with the same hip issue that he’s dealing with tonight. Assuming he’s good to go, I love chasing his ceiling, I chase the ceiling on guys like him on these short slates all the time. He has at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and has the ability to go absolutely nuclear from three-point range. He can break the slate if he can get those shots to fall and is someone I’ll be overweight on if he’s a full go.
Value: Peyton Watson (DraftKings $3.5k; FanDuel $4.6k)
Watson is extremely similar to Braun, where I don’t think he’s necessarily in play unless we get some Nuggets news to break our way in this one. We’ve seen him start when guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are out, so if either of them are ruled out here I would expect Watson to move into the starting lineup. He also has PF/C eligibility on DraftKings which makes roster construction much easier, you can move him all around.
NBA DFS Center Plays:
Spend up: Joel Embiid (DraftKings $11.4k; FanDuel $12.2k)
At this point in the day, I prefer Embiid over Jokic simply because he’s been a better point-per-minute producer this season. That said, if some guys end up ruled out for the Nuggets, Jokic could jump Embiid. However, I may just go with the cheaper option on both sites, on DraftKings it’s Embiid, and on FanDuel it’s Jokic. Honestly, you can’t go wrong with either of them, they’ll battle all night down low and I would expect big games from both.
Mid-range: Domantas Sabonis (DraftKings $10.1k; FanDuel $10.1k)
I think it’s a spend-up night at center, so I’m going to have a 2nd $10k+ option here with Domantas Sabonis. He’s averaged 53 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Suns on the season and the Suns interior isn’t one that is going to scare me defensively. He’s shown a fairly consistent 60-70 point fantasy ceiling as of late as well. He’s playing huge minutes and as I mentioned with Durant, I think this game goes over the 243.5 implied total which could turn this bad boy into a shootout.
Value: Daniel Theis (DraftKings $4.4k; FanDuel $4.4k)
The Clippers will be without Ivica Zubac again in this one and Theis has been getting the start in his place. With Zubac off of the court this season, Theis has a 16.3% usage rate and 0.89 fantasy points per minute. I wouldn’t expect to see massive minutes from him but something around 20-25 is certainly in play and on a short slate he makes plenty of sense as a value piece. I also don’t mind Mason Plumlee as a leverage option in GPPs if you need to get different, we know he can be a good per-minute option as the backup to Theis.
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