10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 18 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 17 Recap:

Draftkings:

Justin Fields – 25.22 pts | QB2 | 3.45x value

Tyrod Taylor – 22.76 pts | QB4 | 4.95x value

Zamir White – 15.6 pts | RB14 | 3.05x value

Tyreek Hill – 13.6 pts | WR23 | 1.46x value 

Gerald Everett – 7.7 pts | TE14 | 2.2x value

Fanduel:

Jarrett Stidham – 13.56 pts| QB17 | 2.1x value

Patrick Mahomes – 12 pts | QB20 | 1.5x value

Kyren Williams – 29.1 pts | RB1 | 3.1x value

Noah Brown – 1.3 pts | INJ | 0.3x value (Was injured 7 plays in the game)

Durham Smythe – 6.9 pts | TE13 |  1.4x value

OK…We’re back a little! 3.02x value on DK and 2.02x value on Fanduel. Pretty pleased to nail two of the top 4 QB’s on FD and it was a reminder once again that cheap guys in good spots with volume are great plays regardless of ownership.

Pretty disappointed that Brown went down with an injury as I felt like he had a real chance to have a smash game, Kyren Williams made up for it in my lineups though as he absolutely smashed once again (too bad he’s resting this week)

Interesting week here as the last one of the regular season (and last for this article for the year) as players are chasing incentives as well as teams trying to get the best playoff position. Lots of value on the slate with starters sitting but that doesn’t mean that those guys are great plays.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Geno Smith QB Seattle Seahawks 

Ownership: DK and 7.5%

Salary: DK $6100

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’s are  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. With so many games on the slate (13) there are plenty of options and the ownership is fairly spread out.

With TONS of backups starting this week, and games that don’t really matter, I want to at least try and target starting QB’s in games that matter. Geno Smith is at the top of that list for me.

Seahawks have to win to get in. They also need to be big Chicago Bears fans as they need them to beat the Packers too.

Geno is mega cheap on DK this week and has been just an incredibly consistent performer all year. He’s shown the massive upside though at times, like against Dallas earlier this season when he put up 34 DK points.

Gets to go against the Cardinals who have nothing to play for and the Seahawks should roll. Pair him up with ya boy DK who is getting all the volume here. JSN and Lockett are fine but they are more TD prayers than anything.

Nick Mullens QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 7.65%

Salary: DK $5000

Mullens is going to throw it at least 40 times against the Lions in Detroit. He’s going to throw 2-3 TD passes along with 2-3 picks.

You get what you get with Mullens. He’s going to sling it and he’s going to score fantasy points. He’s also probably going to cause the Vikings to lose and while that hurts me personally, the picks/turnovers don’t really make a difference in fantasy.

Lock him in with JJettas/Addison, run it back with St. Brown and bank on this game being a shoot out.

Tyjae Spears RB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 1.7%

Salary: DK $4600

So many great values on the slate for RB that are in starting positions, but if you want to go a little crazy, I’m intrigued by Tyjae on DK.

He’s a great pass catcher and while this is probably Henry’s last game as a Titan, Sharp will still be involved. He gets 6-10 carries and 4-5 catches a game.

The floor is low but he’s the type of play you need in a week like this in GPP that NO ONE is on.

Mike Evans WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: 7.07%

Salary: DK $7400

Bucs are playing for the NFC South and Evans has been a huge part of their elite play the last few weeks. Baker is dealing with an injury to his ribs but he will be fine.

Panthers have been great in their secondary all year, but this is Mike Evans in a spot that he needs to be the guy in. Oh and he had 32.2 DK points last time they played.

Darius Slayton WR New York Giants

Ownership: DK 2.56%

Salary: DK $4000

Slayton has been the WR1 for the Giants and he plays a secondary that is terrible. Has had back to back massive weeks with 90 and a TD and 106 and a TD with Tyrod at the helm.
Guy can make big chunk plays in a hurry.

Way too cheap on DK and makes a ton work if you want to smash the chalk studs who have something to play for in your lineup.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 3.63%

Salary: FD $7500

Love me some Goff this week. Vikings are terrible (I know because I live and die by them) and he just put up 14 FD points against them last week while the RB’s went bonkers. I don’t think that will happen again as Flores will look to shut down Monty/Gibbs.

Lions don’t NEED to win but I can’t imagine that Dan Campbell takes his foot off the gas here. It’s always risky but I think we smash the Lions in this spot at home as they wrap up the season and head to the playoffs as champions of the North.

Breece Hall RB New York JEts

Ownership: FD: 6.3%

Salary: FD $7500

Jets clearly have nothing to play for, but they will still try to beat their rival the Patriots and the usage that Breece Hall has been getting is absolutely absurd.

13 carries and NINE catches last week. True dual threat. And this Pats defense isn’t what it once was. They are very middle of the pack against opposing rushers, so there’s a real chance that Hall goes out with a bang here and at this ownership/price combination, I have to have some.

Amon Ra St. Brown WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 8.69%

Salary: FD $8800

Obviously I’m high on Goff, but I think that Amon Ra St. Brown is a solid enough stand alone target as well.

We really don’t have to worry about salary this week with all the value that’s presented itself from the backups playing so it makes it much easier to afford a guy like St. Brown who is a target monster.

Not only is a target monster though, he’s scored in 3 straight games and he had 12 catches on 14 targets for 106 yards a TD two weeks ago against this very same Vikings defense. Love him this week and think whether you are getting him in as a run back with Mullens, a stack with Goff, or just on his own, he’s one of the best plays on either site.

Calvin Ridley WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: FD 6.08%

Salary: FD $6900

Must win game for the Jags for playoff seeding. They are in a win and in scenario and get a prime matchup against a secondary for the Titans that have been shredded all season long.

It’s looking more and more likely that Trevor Lawrence will play and that’s a huge boon for Ridley.

Put up a two TD game two weeks ago, so we know that ceiling is high. Think he’s an elite GPP play at this price point.

Kyle Pitts TE Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 2.17%

Salary: FD: $5400

It would be super fitting if in week 18 Pitts smashed when it doesn’t matter after everyone drafted him way too high in best ball.

Decent matchup against the Saints who are 4th in TD’s given up to opposing TE’s and he should be due for a bounce back after a mediocre outing last week. Did still see 5 targets, just couldn’t connect with Heinicke.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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