Kickstart your excitement for Week 17 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Nov 26, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks:
Tyrod Taylor ($4.6k vs. Los Angeles Rams)
The Giants are making a quarterback change and moving on from Tommy Cutlets in favor of journeyman Tyrod Taylor. He played about 50% of the snaps last week and actually wasn’t terrible against the Eagles. This Rams offense is clicking on all cylinders, so there’s a real chance he just has to chuck it around the yard to play catch-up the whole game. The matchup doesn’t exactly scare me either, the Rams rank 21st in DVOA against the pass on the season and 22nd in DvP against quarterbacks. We don’t need Tyrod to do a ton to pay off this price tag, the Domination Station has him projected for 16.62 DraftKings points giving him 3.61x his price tag.
Case Keenum ($4.9k vs. Tennessee Titans)
Keenum is TBD here as it sounds like C.J. Stroud may return to practice on Wednesday, but we did just get news that Russell Wilson is moving to the bench in favor of Jared Stidham, so we would get an immediate replacement should we need it. That said, let’s operate under the assumption that it is Keenum here… the matchup is elite against a terrible Titans secondary, but I just don’t think he’s very good. He was terrible last week in a really tough matchup against the Browns. He started against the Titans a few weeks ago and was fine, but nothing special. We have him projected for 16.69 DraftKings points giving him 3.41x his price tag.
Taylor Heinicke ($4.9k at Chicago Bears)
It certainly feels like a spend-down week could be the popular route on DraftKings with the number of backups getting the nod. The Falcons will go right back to Heinicke here in a pretty good matchup after a decent week against the Colts last week. The Bears rank 20th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks and he has some nice upside at this price tag. He also has some solid stacking pieces with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and even Bijan Robinson out of the backfield. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 15.86 DraftKings points giving him 3.24x his price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Running Backs:
Ezekiel Elliott ($6.0k at Buffalo Bills)
Elliott has taken over as the workhorse for the Patriots since Rhamondre Stevenson went down a few weeks ago. He’s been fairly productive with at least 21 DraftKings points in two of his last three and is getting absolutely peppered in the passing game which gives him a great floor/ceiling combination. I would expect the Patriots will have to throw a bunch to keep up with the Bills in this one so we should see plenty more reception opportunities for Zeke in this one. The Bills also rank 20th in DVOA against the run on the season. The Domination Station has Zeke projected for 18.07 DraftKings points giving him 3.01x his current salary.
Isiah Pacheco ($6.8k vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Pacheco returned last week but did get a bit banged up with a concussion, so keep an eye on him again as we head into this game. He was putting up decent fantasy numbers before going down due to the touchdown and gets an elite matchup in this one. This Bengals defense is Swiss cheese right now and ranks 28th in DVOA against the run, I would expect this Chiefs offense to do whatever they want in this one. We have Pacheco projected for 19.12 DraftKings points giving him 2.68x his price tag.
Kyren Williams ($8.3k at New York Giants)
Who would have thought coming into the season that Kyren Williams would turn into one of the best fantasy running backs this season? He’s averaging 22.3 DraftKings points per game this season and gets a great matchup against the Giants in this one. The G-men rank 27th in DVOA against the run this season, so Kyren should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. It’s always good when you see a high point per dollar projection on a guy with a high price tag as well. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 22.23 DraftKings points giving him 2.68x his price tag.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Wide Receivers:
D.J. Montgomery ($3.2k vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Mongomery is an interesting flyer option at a near-minimum price in a great matchup against this Raiders defense. He played 86% of snaps last week and could be in line for another large snap share if Michael Pittman Jr. is forced to sit again. I don’t think I would want to go here if Pittman returns, with that said. He has 4 targets in back-to-back weeks and doesn’t need to do a whole lot at this price tag. The Domination Station has him projected for 8.5 DraftKings points giving him 2.66x his current price tag.
Rashee Rice ($6.9k vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
I loveeeee going back to Rice in this one, he’s been in great form and has turned into someone whom Mahomes can really trust. He’s averaging 10 targets per game over his last five games and has double-digit DraftKings points in each game. He gets an ELITE matchup in this one against a Bengals defense that has given up big games to Nick Mullens and Mason Rudolph over the past two weeks. Cincinnati ranks 26th in overall DVOA on the season, I think the Rice/Mahomes stack is going to look great this week. We have Rice projected for 17.92 DraftKings poitns giving him 2.6x his current price tag.
Jonathan Mingo ($3.5k at Jacksonville Jaguars)
I keep waiting for the breakout game for Mingo and I thought it was coming last week against a Packers defense that is really struggling they did struggle in that game but it was more of a DJ Chark and Adam Thielen game. Mingo continues to play all the snaps he can handle with at least 89% of snaps in ten straight weeks. The upside is there, Bryce Young just needs to get him the ball, I love the price tag if you need a value option to spend up elsewhere. Our lineup optimizer has him projected for 9.02 DraftKings points giving him 2.58x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Tight Ends:
Gerald Everett ($3.5k at Denver Broncos)
Everett has been great lately with at least 8 DraftKings points in five straight games and has 8 targets in three straight. Easton Stick is looking to him as somewhat of a safety blanket and I would expect Keenan Allen to be out again this week. Everett is just too cheap if Allen is out again, not to mention, the Broncos rank dead last in DvP against opposing tight ends on the season. The Domination Station has Everett projected for 8.79 DraftKings points giving him 2.51x his price tag.
Cole Kmet ($4.7k vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Kmet has turned it up a notch as of late and has seen his production trend up every week over the last four weeks with at least 11 DraftKings points in four straight. The Falcons rank 26th in DvP against opposing tight ends on the season so the matchup looks great as well. He’s the go-to option for Fields in the red-zone as well, he leads the team with a 25.5% red-zone target share. We have Kmet projected for 11.18 DraftKings points giving him 2.38x his price tag.
Jonnu Smith ($3.0k at Chicago Bears)
Gotta love the price tag on Jonnu here, he’s not going to give you a crazy ceiling unless he can catch multiple touchdowns, but he has at least 6 targets in two of his last three games and you don’t need him to do a ton at this price tag. The matchup is great as well, the Bears rank 29th in DvP against opposing tight ends this season and makes for a perfect punt option if you need to save some money. The lineup optimizer has Smith projected for 7.15 DraftKings points giving him 2.38x his price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Defense/Special Teams:
Washington Commanders $2.0k – This is a punt play if you need the cheapest defense on the board to help make your lineup work. You also get Brock Purdy on a bit of a cold stretch after looking terrible on Monday night.
Denver Broncos $2.9k – Love the matchup here against Easton Stick and this Chargers offense. They had 14 DraftKings points in this matchup in week 14 with 6 sacks, I like going right back to the well at this price tag.
Cincinnati Bengals $2.6k – Not gonna lie… I don’t like this play, I think the Chiefs tear the Bengals up a bit. They do have at least 7 DraftKings poitns in two of their last three but that was against some bad quarterbacks and not Patrick Mahomes.
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