Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/14:
Dec 12, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Dante Exum (0) smiles as he runs back up the curt against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going position by position and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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NBA DFS Point Guard Plays:
Spend up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings $10.5k; FanDuel $11.4k)
SGA is going to be my preferred spend-up option on this slate, you could lean Luka Doncic in this spot, but I just prefer the matchup much more for Gilgeous-Alexander, as Luka matches up with a really good Wolves defense. Gilgeous-Alexander has been good in this matchup already this season scoring 56.25 DraftKings points and this Kings team is not great defensively. It’s a pace-down spot surprisingly enough against a team that we’re used to seeing run and gun, but he’s just been awesome as of late with at least 51 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. This game also has the highest implied total on the slate at 242 and the closest spread at 1.5, so he should see minutes in the high 30s yet again.
Mid-range: Dante Exum (DraftKings $6.6k; FanDuel $7.0k)
I probably prefer playing him at SF or SG depending on what site you’re on, but he’s just too cheap given the state of this team. I don’t think it’s chasing either coming off of a game where he shot 7-9 from three-point range. The Mavs are going to be shorthanded again in this one with Kyrie Irving and Josh Green being out, while guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Seth Curry come in as questionable. He’d probably see good minutes regardless with how he’s playing. He has an 18.3% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie off of the court this season. I would expect him to see 35+ minutes yet again here and he can stuff the stat sheet, so the matchup doesn’t concern me all that much.
Value: Ayo Dosunmu (DraftKings $4.9k; FanDuel $4.4k)
There aren’t a ton of sub-$5k point guards that look like good value options on this slate currently, so I think we go back to the well with Ayo who bounced back somewhat decently last time out. The big thing for me was the minutes he saw with 38 in a losing effort against the Nuggets. The Bulls will continue to be without Zach LaVine again while Alex Caruso comes in as questionable. He has a 14.3% usage rate and 0.65 fantasy points per minute with LaVine off of the court this season… I get it, not great, but it’s the state of the position on this slate as it currently stands. He’ll see a slight boost if Caruso misses in the production department, but certainly in his minutes’ security. He’s probably not a guy I’m running to lock in right away, but if you’re desperate, he makes sense.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Plays:
Spend up: Steph Curry (DraftKings $9.4k; FanDuel $8.9k)
You can only play him at point guard on FanDuel, but if you want to get him in, just swap that Dante Exum play to shooting guard and throw Curry at the point. There aren’t a ton of true spend-ups at the position but I think Curry looks pretty good given the spot and price tag. He’s averaging 48.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Clippers this season and should see at least a slight boost in usage and facilitating with Draymond Green off of the court after he threw a punch that Mike Tyson would be proud of on Tuesday night. We know he has the ability to go absolutely nuclear from behind the arch as well, so I like the spot quite a bit for Curry in this one.
Mid-range: Collin Sexton (DraftKings $5.7k; FanDuel $5.4k)
The Jazz will be without Jordan Clarkson again here and Keyonte George got hurt with a non-contact injury last night, so I would imagine he’s out for this one. Ochai Agbaji started the second half of last night’s game for George, but the minutes certainly open up with both their main guards out as well as John Collins being questionable. If we take just Clarkson and George off of the court this season Sexton has a 27.7% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute which you won’t find a whole lot in this price range. Not to mention, he gets an elite matchup against a bad Portland team that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards.
Value: Kris Dunn (DraftKings $4.3k; FanDuel $4.4k)
Right back to the Jazz for a cheap option as well with Mr. Kris Dunn. As I mentioned, I would expect Utah to be without Clarkson and Keyonte George in this one and as I’m writing this, he’s having a really nice game against the Knicks on Wednesday night. He’s been around a fantasy point per minute with these guys off of the court this season and could see another 20-25 minutes in this one. As I mentioned with Sexton, the matchup is great as well. He’s not going to be a guy you have to force in, but in this price range you can do a lot worse considering my other option in this range was Isaiah Joe who is about as scoring-dependent as they come.
NBA DFS Small Forward Plays:
Spend up: Jimmy Butler (DraftKings $9.1k; FanDuel $8.7k)
Butler had a rough go of it last night in a good matchup with the Hornets, but I have no issue going right back to the well in this one. He’s playing 35+ minutes per game as of late and the Heat will be without Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro yet again. He has a 29.3% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season and will be the main playmaker in this offense. He’s struggled a bit in this matchup this season but only averaging 31 minutes per game in two games. The Bulls are allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards on the season and we get a little revenge game narrative for Butler here as well!
Mid-range: Tim Hardaway Jr. (DraftKings $6.0k; FanDuel $5.9k)
Hardaway returned last time out after dealing with back spasms and played 37 minutes for the second straight game and looked great. He had 21 field goal attempts and I would expect he’s a big key to this offense yet again in this one, as I mentioned with Exum, this team will be shorthanded again. He has a 25.1% usage rate and 0.99 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie Irving off of the court this season. I don’t love the matchup against the Wolves, but the price tag looks solid and he brings a nice ceiling. If you told me he was going to play another 37 minutes, sign me up!
Value: Lu Dort (DraftKings $4.3k; FanDuel $4.4k)
I really like the price tag on Dort here, he’s a main piece of their rotation and will play big minutes which is more than you can say for a lot of guys in this price range. He scored 26.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and if you told me he’d do that again I’d be all over him at this price. He can definitely be volatile but the ceiling is there as well, especially in a game that should be competitive. If we go back to last season he averaged 23.42 DraftKings points per game in three games, so the matchup is solid along with that price, he looks great in all formats as a roster-filling value option.
NBA DFS Power Forward Plays:
Spend up: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9.0k; FanDuel $8.5k)
I absolutely love the spot here for KAT especially if Anthony Edwards ends up missing again. Edwards has been dealing with a nagging hip issue and has missed a number of their recent games, he comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. Towns sees a big boost with Edwards off of the court with a +6.9% usage and +0.2 fantasy points per minute. Even if Edwards plays I think we can go right back to the well given the matchup with this Dallas team. The Mavs are going to have real issues with big men as we’ve seen all season long. They’re allowing the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards on the season.
Mid-range: Jonathan Kuminga (DraftKings $5.4k; FanDuel $5.3k)
The Warriors will be without Draymond Green who is suspended indefinitely after sucker punching Jusuf Nurkic on Tuesday night. There’s a good chance Kuminga could slide into the starting lineup in his place and if that’s the case he’s going to look like a really nice mid-range piece. Even if he doesn’t start, I would expect to see 25+ minutes in a solid matchup. He has at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his last five and has right around a fantasy point per minute on the season. The matchup doesn’t scare me either especially if Paul George ends up sitting on the other end which takes a good defensive player out of the question.
Value: Kyle Anderson (DraftKings $4.8k; FanDuel $5.1k)
Cheap options are looking pretty rough at power forward as I write this Wednesday night, it’s probably either Anderson or Jabari Walker from Portland. I tend to lean Anderson in the scenario where Anthony Edwards misses again which would help secure his minutes on the wing. Regardless, Anderson should see 20-25 minutes and has been fairly productive when given the opportunity. I like the matchup a good amount as well, it’s a pace-up spot against a fast-paced Dallas team that doesn’t play a whole lot of defense.
NBA DFS Center Plays:
Spend up: Nikola Jokic (DraftKings $12.0k; FanDuel $12.4k)
The options to spend up at center are pretty slim, it’s either Jokic or Domantas Sabonis, so I’m going to go with the obvious choice at a higher price tag. Jokic was ejected last time out for a very soft second technical, so I’ll throw that game out the window, but otherwise, he’s been consistently above 50-60 fantasy points with a ceiling of 80-90. He’s been a lot better at home this season averaging about 10 more fantasy points per game which is at least somewhat noteworthy as this game is in Denver. Claxton is a solid defender on the Nets, but I don’t think we need to analyze a matchup too deep when it comes to Jokic, he’s going to shred most anyone in the league.
Mid-range: Jarrett Allen (DraftKings $6.6k; FanDuel $7.4k)
Allen bounced back nicely in this same matchup with the Celtics last time out and saw a slight price decrease. He played 36 minutes in that game and if we anticipate another close game in this one, I would expect more of the same. The Cavs are without Evan Mobley currently which gives Allen more opportunity for those traditional big man stats. He sees a +1.3% boost in rebound equity with Mobley off of the court this season. At some point sooner rather than later I would expect he starts producing closer to his numbers last year when he was a 1.06 fantasy point per minute guy, this season he’s at 0.98, he’s a better player than that. The matchup isn’t great, but obviously, we’ve seen him get it done in this spot and I just think he’s too cheap.
Value: Duop Reath (DraftKings $4.5k; FanDuel $4.6k)
This play is strictly contingent on Deandre Ayton missing again, he comes in as questionable but has missed their last four games. Assuming Ayton is out again, I would expect to see Reath back in the starting lineup and has at least 22 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He’s not necessarily playing huge minutes but did see 26 last time out and if we see that again, he’s going to look great. With Ayton and Jerami Grant off of the court this season, Reath has a 21.3% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute. Again, he’s probably unplayable at this price tag if Ayton does return to the rotation in this one.
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