10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 17 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 16 Recap:

Draftkings:

Tua Tagovailoa – 15.52 pts | QB11 | 1.99x value

Taylor Heinicke – 11.64 pts | QB13 | 2.95x value

Tyjae Spears – 11.7 pts | RB15 | 2.49x value

Jamal Agnew – 2.2 pts | WR10000 | 0.65x value 

Sam LaPorta – 4.8pts | TE21 | 0.75x value

Fanduel:

Nick Mullens – 20.54 pts| QB5 | 2.9x value

Gardner Minshew – 10.14 pts | QB16 | 1.5x value

James Conner – 19.7 pts | RB4 | 2.9x value

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 9.1 pts | WR21 | 1.5x value

Tucker Kraft – 8 pts | TE11 |  1.5x value

Yikes….not great Bob! 1.76x value on DK and 2.06x value on Fanduel. Chalk smashed last week and any time this happens you might as well light this article on fire.

Mullens ended up putting up a decent score, and Heinicke was a great value on DK for the QB’s but Minshew provided minimal return and while Tua won he didn’t put up a big score.

Pleased with James Conner call though he was close to having a much bigger day and the rest was just pretty meh.

We get a monster 13 game slate this Sunday which is exciting and we will DEFINITELY have some leverage on the field with ownership of some of these plays below!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Justin Fields QB Chicago Bears 

Ownership: DK 6.8%

Salary: DK $7300

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’sare  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. With so many games on the slate (13) there are plenty of options and the ownership is fairly spread out.

In situations like this I like to go with the player with the combination of highest upside/lowest ownership, and for me that’s Justin Fields.

Fields is a fantasy monster as he showed last week when he rushed for 97 yards to go with his 170 through the air, and getting a TD both passing and rushing. Prime matchup against the terrible Falcons here, and he’s at home with the potential to get one step closer to the playoffs (which is awful to say as a Vikings fan)

I have no issue running Fields naked here, or with Cole Kmet/DJ Moore. Both are good options and for me it just really depends on what the build looks like as I go through, I’m not forcing it if it’s not there.

Tyrod Taylor QB New York Giants

Ownership: DK 6.5%

Salary: DK $4600

Taylor is WILDLY cheap and has a fantastic matchup at home against the Los Angeles Rams, whose secondary has been shredded by everyone all season.

Seriously. I can’t state enough HOW CHEAP TYROD IS. Unless he gets a lung punctured by Tommy. DeVito’s agent, he’s going to smash value here.

In relief last week he put up 133 yards, 1 TD, 1 pic, and 21 yards on 2 rush attempts. That’s all in one half. Just equaling that will put him in the nuts consideration this week.

If you are playing cash, I don’t know why you would go anywhere else. Purdy? Maybe, but the lineup you can build with Tyrod is just so much better.

No need to pair him with anyone but Darius Slayton is WILDLY cheap as well.

Zamir White RB Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 5.3%

Salary: DK $5100

White smashed last week in a similar spot and while I think the ownership projection probably reflects the potential that Josh Jacobs will play (he won’t) and will climb once Jacobs is officially ruled out, I just don’t think you can avoid White in any format.

The Colts are a run funnel defense and as we saw last week, the Raiders are plenty fine not throwing the ball at all as O’Connell had zero completions in the second half.

Smash play, don’t overthink it.

Tyreek Hill WR Miami Dolphins

Ownership: 8.72%

Salary: DK $9300

OOOOFFF this is a high price to pay for a WR, but with the salary savings we can get elsewhere, I love paying up for the potential 40 point game that Hill is sitting on here against the Ravens.

14 targets last week, and I expect him in a prime game potentially for the number one seed, to get that usage again, especially with Waddle missing the game with a high ankle sprain.

I’m not scared of Marlon Humphrey, or double teams, this is Tyreek.

Gerald Everett TE Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 8.47%

Salary: DK $3500

With Easton Stick at the helm, Everett set a new season high in targets last week with 8. Going up against the much improved Denver Broncos defense, Stick will be under pressure again and likely looking to his trusty TE as a safety valve.

Love the potential usage here for Everett and the price tag is perfect for those of you looking to pay up for guys like Reek or CMC.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jarrett Stidham QB Denver Broncos

Ownership: FD 3.31%

Salary: FD $6100

Say what you will about Sean Payton and the Broncos’ benching Russell Wilson (it’s dumb) but Stidham is a legitimate backup who can play in the NFL and is incredibly cheap on FD this week.

He was in this EXACT SAME SITUATION last year with the Raiders as he started over Derek Carr who the Raiders were looking to move and not pay. Had two solid games, including a 3 TD performance against the 49ers.

Weapons aren’t great here but at the price point you really can’t go wrong especially considering that he’s playing the Chargers who are dog water.

Passing props aren’t great, but I actually like the over on all of them and think he puts up a solid score this week. Maybe not the highest score on FD, but you don’t need him to and the salary savings gets you to guys like Kyren Williams, CMC, and Tyreek Hill.

Patrick Mahomes QB Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD: 8.61%

Salary: FD $8000

Everyone seems to think that this KC Chiefs offense is terrible and that Mahomes is washed. Lots of blame on Taylor Swift, the OC, and even Andy Reid.

I just don’t believe that to be true though and I expect them to ball out against the Bengals this week at home with another opportunity to clinch the AFC West.

He’s still putting up ‘respectable’ fantasy scores despite the offense not clicking on all cylinders and this Bengals defense just gave up 290 yards and 2 TD’s to Mason Rudolph. Yes, that Mason Rudolph who I really thought would never play in the NFL again after all the concussions a few years ago.

Stack Mahomes with Kelce and thank me later. Yes it’s a lot of salary, but I really think in large GPP it’s an elite way to attack this week.

Kyren Williams RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: FD 7.7%

Salary: FD $9400

Love the pricing on both sites this week as you have to make some hard decisions. Our ownership projections right now reflect that most people will be playing CMC and that’s leaving guys like Tyreek Hill (see above) and Kyren Williams under owned.

Under 10% for one of the most dynamic backs in the NFL right now against a very mediocre New York Giants front seven is a GPP dream.

Gets it done through the air and on the ground and has five Td’s in his last five games which is perfect for FanDuel.

Noah Brown WR Houston Texans

Ownership: FD 2.61%

Salary: FD $6500

Brown was mediocre last week bringing in 3 catches on 7 targets for 38 yards, but with CJ Stroud returning, he’ll have a much improved QB throwing him the ball in a prime matchup against a Titans secondary that’s giving up the 5th most points to opposing WR’s through 16 weeks.

The floor for Brown is always incredibly low. Can easily have a zero here, but with Dell out and Nico Collins dealing with an injury he could be the de facto WR1 in a prime scoring spot.

Durham Smythe TE Miami Dolphins

Ownership: FD 0.78%

Salary: FD: $4800

If you read this article last week, you know I liked the spot for Smythe, and he put up a solid week with 5 catches on 5 targets for 56 yards.

Prime matchup against the Ravens who got slashed by George Kittle for 126 yards last week.

Smythe is no Kittle, but he’s got big time potential here, especially with the Waddle targets to spread around. Crazy cheap on both sites and I’m pretty confident in the potential to smash here.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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