10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 16 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 15 Recap:

Draftkings:

Kyler Murray – 15.34 pts | QB10 | 2.4x value

Justin Fields – 11.64 pts | QB14 | 1.66x value

Raheem Mostert- 18.3 pts | RB7 | 2.58x value

Wan’Dale Robinson – 6.5 pts | WR29 | 1.75x value 

Deebo Samuel – 21.9 pts | WR8 | 2.84x value

Fanduel:

Sam Howell – 9.28 pts| QB17 | 1.2x value

Will Levis – 15.46 pts | QB9 | 2.3x value

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 18.1 pts | RB6 | 3.0x value

Cooper Kupp – 21.1 pts | WR3 | 2.6x value

Kyle Pitts – 5.3 pts | TE18|  0.7x value

Well the smashfest on Draftkings had to come to an end at some point, and we ended up with only a 2.25x return there. Fanduel was better this week, still not great though at 1.96x. .

After a few weeks of smashing QB’s, we got more middling results, but had both my running backs finish in the top 10 at their position and that’s something that we have not seen in this article all year as the chalk RB has smashed regularly.

Cooper Kupp was the WR3 and made a ton of sense in lineups this week for me, and helped me gert over the cash line. Deebo Samuel continues to be a top 10 WR week in and week out. I also got bit by Kyle Pitts for maybe the first time ever in what was even a worse game than the 3-0 win my Vikings had against the Raiders.

With all the Island games due to the Christmas Holiday, we have only a 9 game slate for the Main. That means that a lot of ownership will pool up on certain games/players and we have an opportunity to really leverage the field in GPP!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Tua Tagovailoa QB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: DK 5.9%

Salary: DK $7800

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’sare  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on some non-standard guys like Nick Mullens, and chasey plays like Baker Mayfield who had a ceiling game last week. Mullens I like at the decreased ownership on FD, but not so much here.

That’s why I don’t mind paying up for an elite arm in a high total matchup like Tua Tagovailoa. 

50 point total in this game, Dolphins are at home playing the Cowboys who STINK on the road and just got destroyed by the Cowboys in Buffalo, all the boxes are checked here.

The big concern is going to be Tyreek Hill, but he ‘should’ be good to go as he’s been limited in practice. How effective he will be remains to be seen, but even a 50% Tyfreak is better than 80% of the NFL. Jaylen Waddle had a great game last week with Hill out, and if you need a super punt to make your lineup work, I think Durham Smythe scores a TD here.

Taylor Heinicke QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 5%

Salary: DK $4800

Super cheap option for your lineups here at QB. Heinicke is taking over for Ridder for the rest of the season and has elite weapons to work with.

The problem is that he has a terrible head coach who would rather lose a game 7-6 than try to throw the ball or give it to their offensive studs.

He is a gun slinger though and the Colts are giving up a ton of points to opposing WR’s/QB’s. Pair with London or Pitts, or even Bijan and move on.

Tyjae Spears RB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 5.3%

Salary: DK $4700

Not very often that I’m intrigued by a backup RB but given that Dehember ended last week with a brutal performance and the Titans out of the playoff picture, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tyjae Spears get some more work in this game.

Super cheap, pass catching upside, great matchup against the Seahawks. Absolutely worth some shares in your lineups.

Jamal Agnew WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: 0.42%

Salary: DK $3400

With Zay Jones going down with an injury, Jamal Agnew who just returned last week, now ends up in the WR2 role in this offense.

I don’t think Trevor Lawrence plays here against the Bucs, but Beathard is a quality backup and the Bucs secondary is just SO bad. I can’t avoid using Agnew as a super punt. Doesn’t take much for him to pay off this salary and with his speed he can catch a long one and pay it off in one play.

Sam LaPorta TE Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 5.6%

Salary: DK $6400

Lots of quality cheap TE’s this week so one way to get different is to play a stud TE and lately, it doesn’t get much more studly than LaPorta.

Two 28+ point games the last two weeks and gets a Vikings defense that can bleed points to opposing TE’s.

I love this game environment and will have tons of pieces of it with LaPorta being one of my favorites, especially in large GPP where people will pay down at TE.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Nick Mullens QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD 5.87%

Salary: FD $7000

The Ol’ Gunslinger Mullens didn’t look too bad last week and now gets a prime matchup against the Lions in the second highest total of the week.

300 yards passing last week against the Bengals and I’d be shocked if he wasn’t near there again. If he can clean up the interceptions he will put up an even bigger score here.

Easy to pair with Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson and is correlated leverage against the ‘bad’ Ty Chandler chalk. (Bad matchup, Vikings will have to throw, way overowned).

Gardner Minshew QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD: 4.2%

Salary: FD $6800

Player A: 20.6, 15.1, 18.68, 15.64

Player B: 11.64, 24.72, 10.58, 21.16

Player B will be the highest owned QB on the slate and $1500 more than Player B.

Justin Fields is Player A and Gardner Minshew is Player B.

Love the upside that Minshew brings to your lineup with his consistent play and cheap price. Doesn’t quite have the massive upside, but on this slate I don’t know that you necessarily need it for a takedown because of what he allows the rest of your lineup to do.

NOTE: Michael Pittman has been ruled out. I still like Minshew but it’s a much lower confidence play because he’s going to spread it around a ton. 

James Conner RB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: FD 8%

Salary: FD $6500

Everyone is going to play guys like Rachaad White (Good play) and Ty Chandler (Bad Play) and I’m over here screaming “PLAY THE TERMINATOR”!

He’s been smashing the last two games in his return from injury and while the matchup is just good not great, I think he can have a big day on the road against Chicago just based on his volume.

He’s going to get a ton of looks here whether in the running or the passing game. Elite value on both sites.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: FD 5.18%

Salary: FD $5900

Obviously caught the game winning TD last week on just on an unbelievable grab, but he’s been pretty solid the last few weeks. With Geno Smith back (who had 11 targets from 3 weeks ago), he should be in for a big game here against the Titans whose secondary couldn’t stop my 6 year old from racking up 100 yards against them.

Love the upside here. I debated writing DK Metcalf in this spot, but I think JSN has the bigger upside/value here.

Tucker Kraft TE Green Bay Packers

Ownership: FD 4.72%

Salary: FD: $5300

There isn’t a huge gap in salary between the top guys and the cheap guys on FD like there is on DK so you don’t necessarily NEED to pay down, but if you need a few extra hundred to pay up for an elite QB/RB/WR then I think Kraft is my favorite play.

With the Packers dealing with a ton of injuries to their WR’s the last few weeks, Kraft has been developing a real chemistry with Jordan Love. 4 catches for 57 yards and a TD last week. He’s got a ‘tough’ matchup against the Panthers but I expect him to get enough volume to pay off his salary and the TD upside is there.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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