10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 15 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 14 Recap:

Draftkings:

Joe Flacco – 25.34 pts | QB4 | 5.39x value

Josh Allen – 21.52 pts | QB9 | 2.59x value

Kyren Williams – 17.3 pts | RB10 | 2.37x value

Deebo Samuel – 37.0 pts | WR1 | 5.44x value 

Jerry Jeudy – 3.6 pts | WR100 | 0.9x value

Fanduel:

Jake Browning – 24.7 pts| QB4 | 3.8x value

Jared Goff – 6.44 pts | QB19 | 0.9x value

Alvin Kamara – 12 pts | RB12 | 1.3x value

Justin Watson – 2.3 pts | WR100 | 0.4x value

TJ Hockenson – 7.8 pts | TE14 |  1.1x value

Are the tides turning? After smashing on Fanduel all season, the last two weeks I’ve had some monster returns on Draftkings. 3.34x and 1.5x  return on value on Draftkings and Fanduel respectively. I’m not complaining as I much prefer DK over Fanduel just on interface alone, but it’s nice to see I can still make some decent picks over there (Jerry Jeudy not withstanding).

QB was again a strong point for me this week, hammering the value plays in Flacco and Browning and even had a decent return on Josh Allen. I was bit by the Goff on the road bug once again, I just never learn.

Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara had good games but weren’t slate winners. You know who was? An underowned DEEBO again! Can’t believe his ownership last week.

With a 3 game slate on Saturday, we only have a 10 gamer here, but the slate is pretty solid and there’s definitely some value emerging that can put up big scores!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: DK 2.63%

Salary: DK $6400

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’sare  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on some non-standard guys like Jordan Love this week and I don’t love that so might as well throw some darts on guys on with upside.

Which is why, even though he’s playing the 49ers, I kind of love Kyler Murray this week. He’s looked decent in his 4 starts and while the matchup isn’t great, he’s going to HAVE to throw a ton to keep the Cardinals in it.

Can obviously run and keep the defense on it’s heels with his ability to take off and NO ONE is going to play him this week. I think Cards will be competitive in this game and I think they cover, on the back of a really solid performance from Kyler Murray both through the air and on the ground.

Justin Fields QB Chicago Bears

Ownership: DK 5.98%

Salary: DK $7000

As we’ve seen, time and time again, Justin Fields is a fantasy monster. Huge week after huge week every time he’s healthy. And while the Browns are a scary defense, they are dealing with a ton of injuries and will be a shell of what they typically are.

Last three games he’s had 12, 12, 18 rush attempts which is essentially RB1 numbers, and that goes along with throwing it 33, 37, 23.

He’s been great at protecting the ball and has really limited turnovers so far this year. The upside is massive in this matchup and he’s likely my favorite QB on the slate.

Raheem Mostert RB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: DK 4.4%

Salary: DK $7100

I’m expecting this ownership to go up when DeVon Achane gets ruled out, which has to happen soon. Mostert will then be the clear cut number 1 with Jeff Wilson Jr. as his back up.

Jets are a tough run defense but Mostert is going to get there on volume alone. With Tyreek Hill potentially out/limited I think McDaniel really relies on the run and pounds Mostert 20+ times.

His passing game work should increase with Achane out as well. Solid low owned value.

Wan’Dale Robinson WR New York Giants

Ownership: 4.9%

Salary: DK $3900

Wan’Dale seems to have a nice connection with Tommy Devito. Had 7 targets last week. 7 targets at this price point is outrageous. Saints are a good not great secondary and Robinson can make it happen in space.

Think we will continue to see that sort of volume, and can smash on that alone, if he finds a TD though he could absolutely be in the nuts.

Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 6.96%

Salary: DK $7700

Play Deebo Samuel. Don’t overthink it. Great matchup against the Cards. He’s been smashing. I shouldn’t have to say anything else. The ownership is way too late.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Sam Howell QB Washington Commanders

Ownership: FD 7.65%

Salary: FD $7700

Howell may end up being one of the more popular QB’s on the slate but at his current ownership we have to slam him.

All he does is score 20+ points every single week. Whether it’s a blow out or not.

Rams Defense would get torched by any of the teams in the College Football Playoff. Sam Howell should put up a really big score here.

Pair him with Dotson/Samuel or even Logan Thomas.

Will Levis QB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: FD: 3.61%

Salary: FD $6800

With the ownership sort of weird on QB’s this year and not many cheap options available, I’m willing to take some chances on Will Levis coming off one of his best games as a pro.

Put up 327 yards and a TD last week. Just hucks it all over the field. Gets a prime matchup against a Houston team that bleeds points to opposing QB’s.

Wish he ran a bit more, but he has slate winning upside regardless. Pair him with DHop and watch them ball out.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 3%

Salary: FD $6100

Everyone is going to play McKinnon this week and I’m going to swerve and play CEH. CEH had 11 carries last week to McKinnon’s 4 and had 2 catches for 29 yards.

Playing an RB whose coach is Andy Reid is always dangerous, but I think CEH should get solid volume at this price point on FD. Needs to score but that’s absolutely possible against the free falling Patriots.

Cooper Kupp WR Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: FD 7.5%

Salary: FD $8200

My boy Kyren Williams might end up the highest owned guy on the slate so the GPP play is to swerve and play the other pieces of this office.

Kupp hasn’t had a Cooper Kupp game yet. It’s coming before the season is over. He’s too good.

The matchup against the Commanders this week is elite because they can’t stop anyone and they score a ton. Love Kupp as a solo guy, in a Stafford stack, as a run it back in Howell stack, I love him everywhere. I’m going to be way over the field on him. Taking a stand that he has a monster week.

Kyle Pitts TE Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 2.71%

Salary: FD: $5700

Not many great TE options this week, but Pitts is intriguing. Ridder has been throwing it a ton, and in particular to Pitts.

Caught a Tuddy last week and put up decent yardage. Drake London went off for 172 but that won’t happen again and those yards have to go somewhere, why not to the most athletic and most underused TE in the league. This week I’m all over guys who are ‘due’ for a big week and I’m wrapping this week up with a guy who everyone has been saying is due since the day he got drafted!

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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