10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 14 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 12 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jalen Hurts – 23.92 pts | QB2 | 2.9x value

Sam Howell – 20.18 pts | QB5 | 3.25x value

Kyren Williams – 20.2 pts | RB7 | 2.8x value

Aiyuk/Samuel – 15.6 pts/38.8 pts | WR14/WR1 | 2.16x/6.25x value 

Sam LaPorta- 32 pts | TE1 | 5.71x value

Fanduel:

Joe Flacco – 17.16 pts| QB8 | 2.9x value

Gardner Minshew – 18.68 pts | QB7 | 2.7x value

Brian Robinson – 5.3 pts | RB25 | 0.8x value

Garrett Wilson- 6.5 pts | WR32 | 0.9x value

A.T. Perry – 3.5 pts | WR100 |  0.6x value

3.84x and 1.58x  return on value on Draftkings and Fanduel respectively this week, our highest value every on Draftkings which is fun to see, and even without the Deebo Samuel smash game we had a great week. Hitting two number one point producers and a number 2 on the week is really solid.

I was beginning to think that we needed to change this article to value QB’s only since that’s what I’ve been smashing on lately, this was a nice reminder to keep trusting the process of identifying low owned plays with upside and we will get rewarded across all positions.

I’d like to give a big shout out to Sean McVay, head coach of the Rams for giving Kyren the ball near the goal line with the game out of hand, helping us to get over the hill with a TD there. Always looking out for the DFS Grinders

Really interesting slate this week with ownership really pooled on certain games, that makes things difficult, but also provides intriguing leverage possibilities.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Joe Flacco QB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 1.96%

Salary: DK $4700

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that the chalk QB’sare  an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on some non-standard guys like Brock Purdy and Justin Fields and I love both this week so it makes it a bit tricky to get on some cheaper guys.

That being said, I’m going RIGHT BACK TO THE WELL with my BOY Joe Flacco!

Was on him last week in his debut and he smashed value at this price point, and is WAY too cheap again against a defense that bleeds points to opposing QB’s.

One thing I always love to look for when I’m evaluating a slate, is if there is chalk showing up somewhere that’s correlated to another spot that is low owned and we have that this week with Elijah Moore being one of the highest owned plays at WR, and Flacco one of the lowest owned QB’s. If Moore goes off, he’s going to have to have someone throwing the ball to him, and that guy is Flacco.

Flacco/Moore is the preferred stack, but I don’t hate going back to Njoku who dudded last week as a chalk TE. If you want to get funky, you could go Harrison Bryant at TE as well but that feels really chasey. Regardless, Flacco at home, against the Jags, at $4700 is a great play.

Josh Allen QB Buffalo Bills

Ownership: DK 4.83%

Salary: DK $8300

Highest priced QB always go massively under owned, and this is just a fantastic spot for him here against the Chiefs. He’s a fantasy monster, don’t be scared by the price, Allen will smash this week.

Love the rushing upside he showed last week, going 9 for 81 and TWO Td’s which shows the massive ceiling that he has. Don’t overthink this like everyone else, play Allen here.

Stack options are varied but I think we finally see a Stefon Diggs smash game. REALLY hard to pair them but it could be a very unique GPP lineup. Kincaid is my preferred second option and likely the stack that I own the most.

Kyren Williams RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: DK 6.3%

Salary: DK $7300

I can’t quit you.

Kyren Williams continues to be a massive focal point of this offense and the Rams just keep giving the ball a ton of times. Matchup against the Ravens is clearly a tough one, especially going across the country, but I think that Williams will get even more touches here as they try to keep Lamar off the field (though he’s questionable).

20 carries and 6 targets seems to be the floor here and I think the ceiling could be massive in a game that has sneaky shoot out potential.

Jerry Jeudy WR Denver Broncos

Ownership: 7%

Salary: DK $4700

Kind of love a cheap Jerry Jeudy here to make some of the expensive plays work. Prime matchup against the Chargers and their awful secondary and I think that we see Russell Wilson forced to throw it 40+ times, which is a boon for a guy like Jeudy at this price point.

Due some serious positive TD regression. Likely needs to take one to the house from out though, which while making it less likely, does mean that if he does score he’ll smash.

Starting to find a pulse in the yardage department as well, going over 50 in 3 of his last 5 games.

Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 6.57%

Salary: DK $6800

After last week’s explosion, everyone is going to the OTHER receiver instead of back to Deebo Samuel here. Well I’ll stay on the Deebo train.

Had a monster against the Eagles last week and now gets another prime matchup within the division against the Seahawks who he just put up 22 DK points on 2 weeks ago. Now gets them at home.

Love the way that they are using him, in both the run game and the pass game, and last week he even returned punts/kicks! Elite play at a cheap price, who will be far less owned than his counterpart Brandon Aiyuk.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jake Browning QB Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: FD 7.87%

Salary: FD $6500

Browning was in this article two weeks ago and while he didn’t quite produce, last week he showed what I thought he was capable against the Jags and their mediocre defense. Get’s another PRIME matchup against the Colts who not only are mediocre in the secondary, but also can keep up, turning this into a potential shootout.

Still would like to see him show more with this legs to give him a bit more ceiling but he did run one in last week.

Pair with Chase and move on. The TE situation is a mess and while I like Hudson, there’s too many cooks in the kitchen. Boyd is viable just based on how cheap he is.

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD: 1.38%

Salary: FD $7500

I get it. Goff on the road, against Chicago, not a great spot, but I feel like if Chicago sells out to stop the running game, we could see Goff pick apart this secondary, even on the road.

He’s been fairly consistent all year, even in the games he’s ‘off’ he still produces an acceptable amount of points. He’s not going to hurt you, but definitely has the potential to win you a ton of money.

Amon Ra is an elite stack piece, as well as Laporta. If I’m playing GPP I don’t mind doing both, because you need a huge score and those are the two most likely candidates.

Alvin Kamara RB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD 6.7%

Salary: FD $9000

Best matchup on the slate, who cares about the salary. Kamara is gonna smash. Find a way to get him in your lineup.

Justin Watson WR Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 1.8%

Salary: FD $5300

This game is going to be a massive shoot out and with Pacheco now out, I expect Mahomes to have to throw the ball 40 times or more.

Last week it was Rice again, but Watson is lurking and is mega cheap on both sites. Guy got zero targets last week so don’t go nuts here, but I just have a feeling that this is a Watson game where he catches a bomb for a tuddy.

T.J. Hockenson TE Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: FD 3.43%

Salary: FD: $7400

I’m of the opinion that Justin Jefferson being back actually benefits TJ Hockenson. My expectation is that we see Josh Dobbs push the ball to JJettas multiple times early in the first quarter, and then when the Raiders start to focus more on him, it will open tons of space in the middle of the field for Hockenson.

My guess is at the end of the day, Hockenson will continue to lead the Vikings in receiving yards and receptions, even with Jettas back.

NOTE: If Maxx Crosby ends up being out (I think he plays), the Vikings will ABSOLUTELY SMASH.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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