10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 13 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 12 Recap:

Draftkings:

Kyler Murray – 20.44 pts | QB7| 2.96x value

Jake Browning – 12.98 pts. | QB13 | 2.49x value

Adam Thielen – 1.2 pts | WR10000 | 0.15x value

Khalil Shakir – 7.7 pts | WR33| 2.13x value 

Taysom Hill – 9.1 pts | TE7 | 1.82x value

Fanduel:

Baker Mayfield – 14.36 pts| QB10 | 2.1x value

Josh Allen – 40.6 pts | QB1 | 4.4x value

Kyren Williams – 35.4 pts | RB1| 4.3x value

Diontae Johnson – 7 pts | WR28| 1.1x value

Justin Watson – 6.8 pts | WR29 |  1.3x value

1.9x and 2.64x  return on value on Draftkings and Fanduel respectively and while Draftkings was pretty meh (thanks Adam Thielen)! The absolute smash fest on Fanduel continued as we hit the RB1 AND the QB1!!! NOT TO SHABBY.

While Running back continues to be a disaster outside of the chalk, I was willing to take chances on Kyren Williams who was an absolute stud before getting hurt and people were shy about getting on him. That being said, unless it’s an absolute smash play we shouldn’t be taking chances on RB’s that are under 10% owned, so going forward, unless I have a real conviction about a guy, I’m not playing any RB that’s going to be under 10% owned.

We were close to an even better total score on FD as Diontae Johnson legitimately scored a TD and got three free in before falling out of bonds, but Mike Tomlin and the Steelers didn’t challenge the call on the field which was an incomplete pass.

Really interesting slate this week with ownership really pooled on certain games, that makes things difficult, but also provides intriguing leverage possibilities.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Jalen Hurts QB Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 6.9%

Salary: DK $8200

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on the standard guys like Russell Wilson which shows you that recency bias is alive and well.

This week though, similar to last week, we have a stud QB that is projecting under 10% owned because of the perceived tough matchup. And that player is none other than Jalen Hurts who is arguably the best fantasy QB on the season so far.

I get that San Fran is tough, but the Eagles are at home, and last time I checked they still allow the “Brotherly Shove” in the NFL which means he’s almost a lock to score a rushing TD.

The 49ers secondary is very average at best and we are currently projecting Hurts for 230ish passing yards which is right in line with what he’s done all year long. Has had double digit rushing attempts in his last 4 games, and 5 touchdowns over that time period. I guess he’s potentially due some regression in the TD department at some point, but I don’t think it happens this week.

LOVE Hurts here and while it’s tough with the rest of your lineup, pairing him with AJ Brown is a smash play in my opinion. He’s also viable on his own/naked. DeVonta Smith is a more risky GPP pair here as he hasn’t shown the massive upside of Brown but has a nice matchup here.

Sam Howell QB Washington Redskins

Ownership: DK 6.3%

Salary: DK $6200

This is like the 4th time Sam Howell has shown up in this article, but if you are going to throw the ball 40+ times every week then you’ll likely find yourself here because volume = fantasy points.

Just consistently getting 20+ DK points and has a fantastic matchup against the Dolphins in what should be an absolute shootout with two mediocre defenses going up against good offenses.

Love him as a cheaper lower owned stack with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, or Curtis Samuel. I think if he’s going to have a GPP winning score he probably has to drag two WR’s with him, so take that into account into your lineup building.

Kyren Williams RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: DK 8.99%

Salary: DK $7200

I TOLD YA SO.

Williams was the RB1 last week in his first game back, absolutely smashing on the ground and throw the air. He was the key to this offense producing, not Cooper Kupp. 

Matchup here is what is keeping his ownership down, as the Browns have been tough but a favored RB at home, is a smash spot. Worth every penny you have to pay up to get him.

He’s close to a lock for me this week and I’ll have near 100%.

Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel WR San Francisco 49ers 

Ownership: 7%/7 %

Salary: DK $7200/$6200

The 49ers are in the game of the week against the Eagles and they are likely going to be down and having to throw it a ton, which is a boon for Aiyuk and Deebo. Both are elite receivers and get prime matchups against a secondary that has been shredded week after week.

I included both here, because I love them each for different reasons.

Aiyuk is the better pure receiver here and has multiple TD upside.

Deebo is a multi tool weapon who can get it done multiple ways, and I have this weird feeling that the 49ers are going to use him a ton here against the Eagles to keep them on edge. Since returning from injury he has been a beast.

Aiyuk has a massive ceiling as he’s shown multiple times this year, three games over 20 DK points. Purdy loves him and he’s great after the catch.

Both are viable and heck you can play them together in a massive game stack with Hurts, or even a Brock Purdy stack.

Sam LaPorta TE Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 7.43%

Salary: DK $5600

Not in love with paying up for a TE this week as it doesn’t really work with the builds that I’m making, but I’m forcing in some guys like Sam Laporta in smash spots.

Saints are bleeding points to the TE and Laporta is consistently good. If he scores a TD he has a chance to be the highest scoring TE on the slate. Love that sort of upside. Averaging an impressive 13 DK points per game.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Joe Flacco QB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: FD 2%

Salary: FD $6000

Playing crappy QB’s is never fun, but Joe Flacco is fairly efficient and can move this offense up and down the field. At this price point he can be the nuts with 2 TD passes.

With a weird slate like this with clear top options, I don’t mind throwing guys like Flacco or the player below me in some of my MME because of how they can really make your lineups different as you are inherently going to get different combinations of players due to the salary you are saving with a QB like this.

He might not start but I really don’t think Dorian Thompson Robinson will make it out of concussion protocol so he should get the call against the Rams who have been crushed by opposing QB’s all season.

Gardner Minshew QB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: FD: 5.06%

Salary: FD $6800

Another cheap QB that has shown upside here. Minshew has been serviceable for the injured Anthony Richardson, particulary in games against defenses that are bad against the pass. He gets another matchup this week against one of those defenses in the Tennessee Titans.

Here’s why I really like Minshew though, correlated leverage. A ridiculous 40% of the field is going to play Zach Moss this week. That’s insane. If Moss bombs out, it’s likely because the pass game is rolling and Minshew is having a good day. So if Minshew smashes, Moss doesn’t, and you take out 40% of the field. That my friends is correlated leverage and one of my favorite ways to attack GPP’s.

Similar to Flacco, the salary savings with Minshew gets you some unique lineups which I love too.

Brian Robinson RB Washington Commanders

Ownership: FD 3.9%

Salary: FD $6800

Was really shocked to see BRob’s ownership this low. This is a great spot against the Miami Dolphins and while Antonio Gibson starting to emerge hurts his upside a touch, he’s still getting a ton of volume.

As with any RB on FD he is reliant on TD’s to get there, but I think we see it in this matchup. Not someone you want to stack with Howell though.

Garrett Wilson WR New York Jets

Ownership: FD 4.7%

Salary: FD $6900

Doesn’t matter who is throwing the ball, Garrett Wilson is going to get his. Every single week. 10, 8, 14 targets the last three weeks. Caught a tuddy from Tim Boyle last week. Much better matchup against the Falcons this week.

He’s going to have 50% of the offensive production here and that should get him there at this decreased price point.

A.T. Perry WR New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD 4.25%

Salary: FD: $5700

With Rashid Shaheed almost assuredly out this weekend, and Chris Olave trending towards not being able to pass the concussion protocol, A.T. Perry might find himself as the number one receiving option against the Lions at home on Sunday.

Prime matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the league so he should get PLENTY of volume even if those two are somehow active. Has looked good in his limited appearances so far this season. Decent speculative play.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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