Kickstart your excitement for Week 10 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) hands off to Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) in the first quarter of the NFL Week 6 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Seattle Seahawks at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023.
Quarterbacks:
Baker Mayfield ($5.1k vs. Tennessee Titans)
Baker comes in as our top point-per-dollar quarterback option on the week against the Titans at home. He was somewhat disappointing last week simply due to the Bucs scoring 37 points while Baker had just 19 DraftKings points, but I think you’ll take it at the price tag. He gets another great matchup against the Titans here who have been great against the run, but terrible against the pass. Tennessee ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass this season, so if they can’t get it going on the run, look for Baker to sling it. He’s 7th among all quarterbacks in deep ball attempts, so the upside is certainly there, and has some very obvious stacking options with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Domination Station has him projected for 15.95 DraftKings points giving him 3.13x his price tag.
Geno Smith ($5.8k vs. Washington Commanders)
Geno had an absolute floor game last time out against a really tough Cleveland defense. He gets a much better matchup here and looks like a great bounce-back option who could get overlooked due to that game last week. The Commanders rank 19th in overall DVOA but I don’t see that getting any better after they traded two of their best defenders and players in Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline. He ranks 4th in deep ball completion percentage on the season, so if the line can give him time, look for him to find guys like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and even Jaxon Smith-Njigba as stack options. We have him projected for 17.3 DraftKings points giving him 2.98x his price tag.
Brock Purdy ($5.7k at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Purdy bounced back Purdy nicely (da-dum-tsss) before the bye against the Bengals and will look to keep that moving here against Jacksonville. The issue may be the matchup, however. The Jaguars have been sneaky good against opposing quarterbacks as they come in ranked 5th in DVOA against the pass on the season and 3rd in overall DVOA. Purdy has the stacking options with Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffery, and George Kittle, there’s a chance he could get Deebo Samuel back as well. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 16.87 DraftKings points giving him 2.96x his price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Unlock every tool, every strategy video, and access to every DFS coach we have in any sport with your all-access VIP pass. Simply use code NFL23 to drop pricing 15% each and every month! Imagine what our coaches share in the locker room…
Running Backs:
Najee Harris ($4.9k vs. Green Bay Packers)
Najee has been about as least sexy of a play as there is, but has been sneaky consistent with at least 10 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has a dirt cheap price tag considering he’s the starting running back. The matchup is great as well against a Packers team that ranks 16th in DVOA against the run. Harris has some pass-game upside as well which gives him a nice floor/ceiling combination. The Domination Station has him projected for 12.15 DraftKings points giving him 2.48x his price tag.
Bijan Robinson ($6.0k at Arizona Cardinals)
Bijan has been incredibly frustrating this season, but mostly not to his own doing, Arthur Smith just hates good players. He saw 61% of the snaps which is fine, but he needs more touches, the bright side here is he could get it done in limited touches considering the matchup. The Cardinals are 30th in DVOA against the run and Bijan has elite pass-catching upside as well. He’s 3rd among all running backs in targets on the season and 1st in routes run. We have him projected for 14.78 DraftKings points giving him 2.46x his price tag and certainly comes with a ceiling.
Rachaad White ($5.8k vs. Tennessee Titans)
White is coming off of his best game of the season last time out against the Texans with 27.9 DraftKings points but does get a tough matchup here. I touched on it with Baker Mayfield in the quarterbacks’ section, but the Titans are extremely good against the run and fairly bad against the pass. The nice thing about White, he can do both! If he didn’t have pass-catching upside I wouldn’t love him here, but the price makes complete sense given the form and volume he’s been seeing. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 13.7 DraftKings points giving him 2.36x his price tag.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Wide Receivers:
Rondale Moore ($3.0k vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Rondale comes in at the stone min $3k price tag and should be getting a huge boost to the offense with Kyler Murray returning to the team. The Cardinals really struggled with Clayton Tune at quarterback last week but Murray being back should vastly help Moore and the rest of this offense. Arizona looks for ways to get Moore the ball in space, so I think he can certainly get us there at this price tag… he sure doesn’t need to do a whole lot. The matchup is great as well, as the Falcons rank 31st in DVOA against the pass on the season. The Domination Station has him projected for 8.29 DraftKings points giving him 2.76x his price tag.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4.1k vs. Washington Commanders)
We touched on JSN’s quarterback in the quarterback’s section, so we could get ourselves a nice little cheap stack between him and Geno Smith in a nice matchup. Smith-Njigba has slowly become more of a piece in this offense with at least 5 targets in four of his last five and double-digit fantasy points in three straight. As I mentioned with Geno, this defense took a big hit at the deadline and I think this game has a chance to shootout, he makes complete sense at this price tag. We have him projected for 10.8 DraftKings points giving him 2.63x his price tag.
Marquise Brown ($5.2k vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Yet another Cardinals receiver who is underpriced in a great matchup. Pretty much everything I said with Rondale Moore will translate to Hollywood Brown, but Brown has a higher floor/ceiling due to his skill set. Murray should be a massive boost to Hollywood with his ability to push the ball down the field in an awesome matchup. His production has cooled off as of late but he’s still getting peppered with targets, he’s 9th among all wide receivers in targets on the season. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 13.45 DraftKings points giving him 2.59x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Sportsbetting is here to stay! And, so is the newest form of DFS…props-style!! Our VIP Proptimizer Tool spots, mathematically, where sites like PrizePicks, Underdog, Sleeper, and even Draftkings have missed. Gain the edge in seconds with this industry-leading tool…and diversify your play!
Tight Ends:
Trey McBride ($3.5k vs. Atlanta Falcons)
McBride came down to Earth last week but still saw the majority of tight-end snaps. Similar to Moore and Hollywood Brown, McBride will benefit from Kyler Murray returning and gets a great price tag. The ceiling is obviously there for him as well as we saw in week 8 against a good Baltimore defense. This matchup is much better and makes plenty of sense as a value option at the tight end position. The Domination Station has him projected for 9.11 DraftKings points giving him 2.6x his price tag.
Juwan Johnson ($3.1k at Minnesota Vikings)
Johnson made the list last week and looked great with 13.9 DraftKings points. He caught all five of his targets and one for a touchdown against the Bears. He gets a nice matchup again in this one against the Vikings and has played at least 61% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks. He’s a big target option for Carr in the red zone and makes complete sense as a punt. We have him projected for 7.78 DraftKings points giving him 2.51x his price tag.
T.J. Hockenson ($5.0k vs. New Orleans Saints)
Hockenson has been as consistent as they come as of late and didn’t skip a beat with two new quarterbacks last week. He’ll have Josh Dobbs in this one which is a lot better than the alternatives once Cousins went down. Hockenson ranks 1st among all tight ends in targets and receptions on the season. The matchup isn’t great against the Saints, but he carries one of the best floor/ceiling combinations on the slate. The lineup optimizer has him projected for 12.48 DraftKings points giving him 2.5x his price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Defense/Special Teams:
Dallas Cowboys $4.4k – The Cowboys are certainly not cheap here but the matchup is as good as it gets against a truly terrible Giants team. Dallas has playmakers all over the defense and the Giants have just the opposite on offense, they’re worth the price tag on this slate.
Cincinnati Bengals $2.8k – I can’t say I love the matchup for the Bengals here against a Texans offense that went absolutely bonkers last week, but the price tag makes sense if you land in the mid-range against a rookie quarterback… a good rookie at that.
New York Giants $2.1k – We go from the Cowboys at $4.4k to the other side of the ball where the Giants are near the stone min in that same ball game. The defense isn’t exactly good but we know Dak can get himself into trouble. That said, the Cowboys’ defense could do just as much scoring as the offense which hurts the Giants’ DST all the same. I’m always fine punting with defense though.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your NFL membership each and every month!
