Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/3:
Nov 1, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey (3) drives to the basket between New Orleans Pelicans defenders during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
We’ll kick this slate off with the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road in Indiana. Yet again we’re waiting on injury news for them as Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen come in as questionable. I’m going to operate under the assumption that they’re both out until they prove to be otherwise, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock for updates. Below is how the team has operated with these guys off of the court this season:
- Donovan Mitchell – 34.2% usage rate; 1.47 fpm
- Isaac Okoro – 15.5% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Max Strus – 18.6% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Dean Wade – 9.3% usage rate; 0.51 fpm
- Evan Mobley – 23.1% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
It’s obviously a small sample but I’ll go right back to the well on Mitchell at the very least, he’s been awesome to start the season and the matchup is great. Mobley has been fine but feel like he’s been underwhelming considering the opportunity outside of his ceiling game against this very Pacers team, so obviously something with the matchup works for him. Caris LeVert returned last time out and has been playing massive minutes with Garland and Allen out, if one or both of them return he may see a hit to his minutes which may make him overpriced. Lastly, Strus has come down to Earth over his last couple of games, but the minutes will be there and if the shots are falling he’ll be a good option. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton comes in as questionable as well after missing their last game. It’s a knee issue for him, so keep an eye on it as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays. The matchup isn’t great but he’s been extremely consistent on the season and makes sense in his price range. Myles Turner only saw 22 minutes last time out as the Pacers got throttled by the Celtics, which you’ll see as a theme crossed this team, so I’m going to throw that game out the window. His price tag has come up and is more of a secondary option for me. Outside of those two it’s hard for me to trust anyone else on this team, the minutes on the ancillary pieces like Bruce Brown, Bennedict Mathurin, and Buddy Hield have been all over the place, and on a decent-sized slate I don’t think we need to force it unless Haliburton misses again. Guys like Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell would make sense in that scenario as well.
5-star play: TBD
4-star play: TBD
Deeper Value: TBD
GPP Sleeper: TBD
***TBD – check out the Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for updates when we get news on Allen, Garland, and Haliburton***
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Knicks, RJ Barrett ended up missing their last game with a knee issue and comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, if he plays he’s a fine mid-range option in a pace-up spot. Immanuel Quickley bounced back nicely last time out but is hard to trust especially if Barrett is back, his minutes can be volatile. Julius Randle had a tough game against the Cavaliers last time out but I do like the pace-up spot with the Bucks here. He averaged 40 FanDuel points per game in three games against the Bucks last season, and they clearly have some work to do on the defensive end. Jalen Brunson hasn’t been great over his last few games but gets a decent bounce-back spot here, I can’t say I love the price tag though. Then, Mitchell Robinson has played nice minutes in games that have stayed competitive, so I like going back to him here, they’ll need his size against this big Bucks team. Speaking of the Bucks, they really struggled last time out against the Raptors, but should be able to bounce back here. We have a decent enough look at how this offense will look with Damian Lillard on the team, below is how they’ve operated on the season:
- Damian Lillard – 28.1% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Malik Beasley – 14.6% usage rate; 0.66 fpm
- Khris Middleton – 18.16% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 35.5% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 14.6% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
Middleton will likely be on a pretty strict minutes restriction for the next few weeks, so he’s not in play until his price comes down, but the shots are certainly there… and they’re open. Giannis and Dame are the obvious guys here, but Malik Beasley has looked great in the starting lineup and has shown the ability to get hot from the field if you need a mid-range option, but we may not need it on this slate. Guys like Lopez, and Bobby Portis are GPP flyers to round out the team.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, RJ Barrett, Damian Lillard
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Immanuel Quickley, Malik Beasley, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis
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Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -4.0
Starting with the Nets, Nic Claxton and Cam Johnson will miss this game again while Spencer Dinwiddie comes in as questionable after missing their last game. I will operate under the assumption that Dinwiddie is back for the sake of this article. He left in the first half of the Charlotte game which is why his production was so low, but I think he’s someone we can go back to in this price range. Cam Thomas came down to Earth last time out and shot 4-19 from the field. His price tag has come all the way up but the ceiling is obviously there, he’s more of a secondary option for me who gets a boost if Dinwiddie is out again. Mikal Bridges has been consistent on the season but is priced up and I don’t love him starting next to Thomas who absorbs a ton of shots. I may have a soft spot for playing Ben Simmons in DFS, but he had a tough game against a tough defense last time out. I have no issue going right back to the well in this one, he racks up all the stats and is playing big minutes. You won’t find many other players with triple-double upside in his price range. Then guys like Lonnie Walker, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Royce O’Neale all make sense as roster fillers. From the Bulls, we kind of know the deal with this team, it’s Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan as the main options while guys like Coby White and Patrick Williams are secondary options. Vucevic has been the best piece as of late with at least 52 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. All three of these guys feel underpriced in a good matchup and make sense in all formats.
5-star play: Ben Simmons, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Thomas, Mikal Bridges, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: Patrick Williams
GPP Sleeper: Lonnie Walker, Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, Coby White, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma State Thunder
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -5.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry is always a guy that I’m underweight on in cash games due to the price tag but we know the ceiling is there, so he makes plenty of sense in tournaments. He just doesn’t get the ancillary stats like the other guys in his price range, but he has a ceiling as high as anyone on the slate. Chris Paul seems like a pretty easy fade now that he’s back on the bench and priced up. Klay Thompson hasn’t hit value on his price tag yet this season and isn’t a guy I’ll go back to in this one, he’s still a fine GPP option if you land on some shares. I do think Draymond Green is solid, he looked great last time out and can stuff the stat sheet, his minutes are trending in the right direction as well. The price tag on Andrew Wiggins is way down, but he’s been BAD this season. I’ll wait until he figures it out a bit before going back to him. Lastly, Kevon Looney makes sense at his price tag but does take up a valuable center spot. This team is mostly uninteresting to me on this slate. From the Thunder, they’ve already ruled out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so we should see Isaiah Joe re-enter the starting lineup and look like a solid value option. He averaged 0.87 fantasy points per minute with Shai off of the court last season. Josh Giddey should see the biggest boost here, he had a 24.7% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with Shai off of the court last season and looks like a great option in this one. Chet Holmgren has looked good and saw 37 minutes last time out which was great to see, I have no issue with him as a GPP option at the very least. Jalen Williams will see some extra opportunity as well and is a nice mid-range option. Then guys like Cason Wallace and Lu Dort make sense as lineup fillers as well.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Josh Giddey
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: Isaiah Joe
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Cason Wallace, Lu Dort
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -9.0
Starting with the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma was great in just 25 minutes last time out and has at least 44 DraftKings points in two of his last three. It’s a tough matchup, but he looks good in this one. Jordan Poole has given us the full Jordan Poole experience… except for the good part this season. He’s going through a slump right now and until I see it turn around I don’t think I can play him in anything other than MME. Deni Avdija was great last time out as well, he won’t be any sort of priority but is a nice per-minute guy. Tyus Jones has seen his minutes trend down as of late but he’s the starting point guard on this team at a nice price tag. Lastly, Daniel Gafford comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, Mike Muscala will likely start in his place if he’s out and is probably uninteresting on this slate. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler has been much better at home this season and teams are scoring at will against the Wizards, he’s going to look like a great option here. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo who is coming off of a guy game last time out. Tyler Herro may seem priced up but with at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he’s a solid secondary option. Then guys like Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry are fine GPP options simply due to the matchup.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, Jordan Poole, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Mavs, the big news we’ll need here is Kyrie Irving as he comes in as questionable. I think the only piece we want to play here is Luka Doncic anyway, but Kyrie being out would only increase his opportunity. Dereck Lively has looked good and they’ll need his size in this one but the matchup is tough against this Denver defense and Jokic down low. We should touch on Tim Hardaway as well, he’s looked good to start the season and would get a boost if Kyrie were out again. You can make a case for Grant Williams, but I can’t do it on this slate and that price tag. From the Nuggets… they’re going to be about the least interesting team to break down this season. We know what we’re getting, Nikola Jokic is elite, Jamal Murray is slightly less elite but also less expensive, and guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are similar options in the mid-range with upside. Done? Done… well I guess Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a fine filler piece if you happened to fall on him.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Kyrie Irving, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dereck Lively, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -1.6
We round out the slate with two of the worst teams in the league, at least so far this season. Starting with the Grizzlies, Jaren Jackson Jr. came down to Earth a bit last time out but lost minutes due to a blowout. He’s been volatile with his foul issues, but we know the production can be there when Morant is out. He had a 30.8% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute last season with Ja, Adams, and Clarke off of the court which is what I keep going back to, he’s going to look great yet again in this one. Desmond Bane hasn’t exactly been great consistently yet this season, but he had a 27.7% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute with these guys off the court last season, and this matchup is great… that said, I can’t say I love the price tag. Xavier Tillman might have had the worst game he’ll have all season last time out, he gets a nice bounce-back spot here and makes sense as a mid-range center option. Then Marcus Smart is a fine option in all formats to fill lineups with. From the Blazers, Scoot Henderson will be out in this one along with Anfernee Simons who is out for the next few weeks. I would expect to see Malcolm Brogdon join the starting lineup and looks like a great option at his price tag. He’s always been a nice per-minute option, but the minutes have been volatile over the last couple of seasons… that shouldn’t be the case here. We saw a Shaedon Sharpe ceiling game last time out and will carry a lot of the load in this one again, he’s a great option yet again in a great matchup. I was high on Deandre Ayton coming into the season and he’s starting to look like it with at least 43 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, I like going right back to the well with him in this one. Lastly, Jerami Grant is never a sexy option, but he’s a solid secondary option to round out the slate.
5-star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe
4-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman, Marcus Smart, Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant
Deeper Value: David Roddy
GPP Sleeper: Robert Williams, David Roddy
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