Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/21:
Nov 15, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) reacts against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -1.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Raptors, Scottie Barnes has cooled off over their last few games but gets a nice bounce-back spot in this one. He’s been better on the road this season, but I probably won’t let that sway me one way or the other, he’s going to be a good option here. Pascal Siakam had a decent bounce-back game last time out, but he just hasn’t been all that great this season averaging just 37.0 DraftKings points per game. I do think Dennis Schroder looks solid here, he lost minutes due to a blowout last time out but still was able to produce, I like going right back to the well. OG Anunoby has been all over the place and is hard to trust here, but on a shorter slate, I have no issue going back to him if you land on him. Jakob Poeltl has at least 41 DraftKings points in two of his last three and gets a solid matchup here, the minutes can be volatile but I still think he looks good. Lastly, guys like Gary Trent and Precious Achiuwa make sense as tournament options on a short slate as well. From the Magic, they’ll continue to be without Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr. again in this one meaning guys like Goga Bitadze and Anthony Black should continue to start. Below is how this team has operated with them off of the court this season:
- Anthony Black – 12.5% usage rate; 0.58 fpm
- Jalen Suggs – 22.0% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Franz Wagner – 27.1% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Paolo Banchero – 27.4% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Goga Bitadze – 13.4% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
I still think you can get some leverage on Bitadze lineups with Mo Wagner off of the bench, they’re not afraid to close with him over Bitadze, and he’s a great per-minute guy as well. I’m not the biggest Anthony Black fan due to the per-minute production, but if you land on him I’m fine with it. I’d be more in the mid-range with these guys like Suggs, Wagner, and Banchero. Lastly, Cole Anthony makes sense as an option as well with at least 26 DraftKings points in three straight.
5-star play: Scottie Barnes
4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Dennis Schroder, Jakob Poeltl, Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Goga Bitadze, Cole Anthony
Deeper Value: Anthony Black
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Precious Achiuwa, Mo Wagner
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Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 250.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.5
I can’t say I’ve ever seen an implied total at 250, but here we go! Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton had a floor game last time out but has been unreal this season, he’s going to look like a top raw option on the slate with how fast this game should be. Both of these teams play extremely fast and are top five in offensive efficiency on the season. Myles Turner has been fine as of late but I have no issue going right back to the well with him, we know the upside is there when he starts knocking down threes and snagging some stocks. Then we get to the trio of Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, and Buddy Hield, they’ve all been extremely volatile due to the minutes they’re seeing, but any one of them can get hot from three in this one and get us there. The main pieces I want here are Haliburton and Turner, then we get to that trio, then we get to guys like Jalen Smith and Obi Toppin as MME-type plays. I wish Smith would see more minutes due to how good he is as a per-minute producer but that doesn’t necessarily translate to being a good NBA player. From the Hawks, Trae Young has been extremely consistent as of late with at least 44 DraftKings points in seven straight games and I obviously love the matchup. Dejounte Murray hasn’t exactly produced at this price tag with Young back on the court, so I can’t say I love him but we have to take this game environment into play. Jalen Johnson bounced back nicely last time out and has been great all season. Clint Capela has pulled away from Onyeka Okongwu as of late and would be my preferred option even with the price difference. I’m fine with De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic in the mid-range but I probably like Saddiq Bey more at this price tag and has been in great form with at least 25 DraftKings points in three straight.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young
4-star play: Myles Turner, Dejounte Murray, Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela, Saddiq Bey
Deeper Value: Jordan Nwora
GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, Jalen Smith, Obi Toppin, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -7.5
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell will continue to be out in this one while Caris LeVert comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock because he’ll look like a great option with Mitchell out if he plays. Dean Wade should continue to start with Mitchell out, but below is how this team operates with Mitchell off of the court this season:
- Darius Garland – 33.8% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Max Strus – 19.7% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Dean Wade – 6.5% usage rate; 0.62 fpm
- Evan Mobley – 24.2% usage rate; 1.44 fpm
- Jarrett Allen – 20.5% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Caris LeVert – 26.3% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
The main three of Garland, Mobley, and Allen are going to be my favorite options but Sturs and LeVert are certainly in play at their price tags. Then Wade and Craig Porter Jr. will see good minutes and make sense as good value options. Wade’s minutes are more secure but he’s not nearly as good per minute as Porter Jr. is. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid is going to be right up there as a top raw option on the slate, he has at least 61 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. Tyrese Maxey continues to run this backcourt with Harden off of the team, it’s a tougher matchup but I have no issue going back to him even with his price tag being up. Tobias Harris has been so much more aggressive this season partially due to Harden being gone, partially due to him buying into his role, oh and it’s a contract season for him, we’ve seen him have these big years in contract seasons in the past. De’Anthony Melton makes sense at his price tag as well with at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Then Nic Batum is a solid value option while we can jump off of the Robert Covington train with Batum back in the starting lineup.
5-star play: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Caris LeVert, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Max Strus, Jarrett Allen, Dean Wade, Craig Porter Jr., Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton
Deeper Value: Dean Wade, Craig Porter Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Dean Wade, Craig Porter Jr., Nic Batum
Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -13.0
Starting with the Blazers, Malcolm Brogdon comes into this one as questionable, but even if he plays I would imagine he’s on some sort of minutes restriction, so probably not a guy I want to get to but would definitely take the shine off of Skylar Mays. Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe were guys I liked last time out but they lost minutes due to a huge blowout, and could be a trend we see this season and is certainly in play in this one with a 13-point spread. Deandre Ayton has been volatile as of late but you’ve gotta think he’s got a chip on his shoulder against the team that somewhat gave up on him. From the Suns, they’ll remain without Bradley Beal in this one and this team is starting to give me vibes of that 2021 Nets team where the big three just could never play together. Kevin Durant has been awesome as of late with at least 65 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. The minutes limit has been lifted on Devin Booker after seeing 40 minutes last time out, the matchup is elite, and he’s going to look great here. Similar to Ayton, Jusuf Nurkic gets a revenge game here as well, the minutes are the big thing with him. He’s a great per-minute producer but has seen his minute fluctuate. Then guys like Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon make sense as secondary options if they make the rest of your lineup work.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Deandre Ayton, Jusuf Nurkic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -8.0
Starting with the Jazz, they went to overtime last time out against the Suns so there were some big games all around to go with big minutes for a lot of this team. Walker Kessler will remain out here so Keyonte George should remain in the starting lineup. He’s playing good minutes and has performed nicely with Kessler out. Lauri Markkanen played 50 (!) minutes last time out and 40 minutes in the game prior. He was able to bounce back in a big way last time out, as one normally would do if they played 50 minutes. That said, I have no issue going back to him in this one. Jordan Clarkson has at least 41 DraftKings points in five straight games and is going to look good in a revenge game. John Collins has been much better over their last few games and is a nice mid-range option. I think we can somewhat ignore the game from Talen Horton-Tucker last game, they needed his minutes in an overtime game… if people are going to chase him, I’ll be underweight. Collin Sexton is averaging over 23 minutes per game over his last three games and has produced nicely, both he and Kelly Olynyk make sense as a GPP option. From the Lakers, LeBron James feels like he’s just going to be questionable for every game this season, at this point I’ll just operate under the assumption that he’s going to play. He’s been in great form as of late and has surpassed Anthony Davis as the highest-priced Laker. I love the matchup for Davis in this one while the Jazz remain without Kessler down low. They won’t have anyone to guard Davis and will look like a top option on the slate. D’Angelo Russell has had a rough few games but is still a guy I have no issue going to on a short slate. Austin Reaves is the only other Laker I think we can be comfortable playing while guys like Cam Reddish and Rui Hachimura are playing good minutes but are extremely volatile. Both guys and everyone on this team would see a boost if James were to miss.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James
4-star play: Keyonte George, Lauri Marrkanen, Jordan Clakson, John Collins, D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Collin Sexton, Kelly Olynyk, Cam Reddish, Rui Hachimura
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