Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/16:
Nov 14, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski (2) reacts after hitting a three-point shot against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X), make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -3.5
We’ll kick this short slate off with the Nets, they’ll be without Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas again in this one. There’s going to be a lot more usage and shots to go around with Thomas out, below is how they operate with Simmons and Thomas off of the court this season:
- Spencer Dinwiddie – 21.3% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 30.8% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Cam Johnson – 25.3% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Dorian Finney-Smith – 23.9% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Nic Claxton – 10.7% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
I had a bunch of Cam Johnson last time out and he looked great, his price tag came up slightly but still, a guy we can get to on a short slate. Claxton got himself into early foul trouble otherwise I would imagine he’s back around 28 minutes yet again. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler has been fairly volatile relative to his price tag but on a short slate makes sense as a pay-up option. Bam Adebayo has been unreal as of late with at least 49 DraftKings points in five straight games and gets an elite matchup in this one. Kyle Lowry got himself into quick foul trouble last time out and ended with just 15 minutes. I wouldn’t expect that to be the norm while Tyler Herro remains out. I do still think Duncan Robinson is solid as well, he should continue to start with Herro out, I don’t understand the PF eligibility on DraftKings, but we know what he can do when he gets going from the field like, he has at least 41 DraftKings points in back to back games. Guys like Josh Richardson and Jaime Jaquez are fine options but do take a slight minutes hit with Lowry back, I would think more so Richardson than Jaquez who has been great in big minutes over the last two games.
5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Johnson, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lonnie Walker, Royce O’Neale, Jaime Jaquez, Josh Richardson
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -2.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be an animal and should be able to keep it going here, he has at least 51 DraftKings points in five straight games and the matchup looks great. Josh Giddey has been much better over the last two games but it’s just going to be so hard for him to consistently have big nights while he’s battling for usage with Gildeous-Alexander in the backcourt. Chet Holmgren came down to Earth against Wemby and the Spurs last time out but we know the ceiling and the minutes are there against a fairly weak Warriors frontcourt. They started Saric at the five last time out, if they do the same in this one, Chet is going to look great. Jalen Williams is in the same boat as Giddey, I just don’t love the price tag but on a small slate, he makes sense in all formats. Then Lu Dort and Cason Wallace will make sense as a tournament option at his price tag, but we know the volatility there. From the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry again in this one with that knee injury as well as Draymond Green who decided to put a sleeper hold on Rudy Gobert last time out and is suspended. We’ll need to keep an eye on a starting lineup for them tonight, I would see them going a number of different ways. Route number one would be to slide Dario Saric to the four and move Kevon Looney back into the starting lineup. If they opt for more shooting they could insert rookie Brandin Podziemski into the starting lineup and move Andrew Wiggins to the four and Saric back to the five. Podziemski started the second half last time out with Klay Thompson ejected and had a really nice game. He played 39 minutes and had a 22.42% usage rate, Kerr came out and said he’s earned the right to be in the everyday rotation, so it wouldn’t shock me to see him rewarded with a start in this one. They have other options as well with guys like Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga. Chris Paul looked solid in his return to the starting lineup with Curry out. He played 36 minutes last time out and should be in line for a similar role tonight. I don’t have a ton of interest in Klay Thompson, he’s been fairly underwhelming to start the season. Lastly, Andrew Wiggins had a big opportunity last time out but shot terribly, that said, he still put up a decent game. I wouldn’t have an issue with him with Curry and Green out.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul
4-star play: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, Dario Saric, Andrew Wiggins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Cason Wallace, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Brandin Podziemski
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