Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 11/10:
Nov 1, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Christian Wood (35) celebrates against the LA Clippers during the third quarter at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 242.0
Vegas Spread: Was -2.0
We’ll kick this slate with the highest implied total on the slate between two teams who don’t play a whole lot of defense. We saw this game the last time these two teams played, so we have a bit of a sample size to go off of. Starting with the Hornets, they’ll be without Terry Rozier again, so we should expect Brandon Miller to get the start in his spot which solidifies his minutes a good amount. Below is how this team has operated with Rozier off of the court this season:
- LaMelo Ball – 32.5% usage rate; 1.50 fpm
- Brandon Miller – 15.3% usage rate; 0.55 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 27.4% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- PJ Washington – 23.9% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Mark Williams – 21.8% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
Miller hasn’t done a ton with his opportunity but we know the raw talent is there, I just don’t love the price tag on a big slate. Ball has been the guy to get to with at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is going to look great again in this one. Then guys like Washington, Hayward, and Mark Williams all make sense as secondary options in a game that should feature plenty of fantasy goodness. From the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma was a core play for me last time out and looked great, he has at least 44 DraftKings points in three of his last four. Jordan Poole went into the last game looking like he was figuring things out and then dropped a dud on us. He’s going to be strictly a GPP guy, but the ceiling is certainly there. Deni Avdija is a fine option, but probably not someone we need to force on this slate. Lastly, Daniel Gafford was a guy I liked last time out as well but struggled with foul trouble which hurt his minutes big time. He’s still probably too cheap but takes up a valuable center position.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Kyle Kuzma
4-star play: Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Miller, Jordan Poole, Daniel Gafford, Tyus Jones
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -7.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 54 DraftKings points in five of his last six. He should do whatever he wants against this Pistons frontcourt and is a top raw option on the slate. Tyrese Maxey also had a big game and now has at least 46 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, it’s hard not to like him here as well. Then guys like Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre are fine mid-range options but not pieces we need to force in this matchup on a big slate. I suppose you could make a case for De’Anthon Melton, but he’s a lineup filler piece at best. From the Pistons, they’ll be without Jaden Ivey and Alec Burks again. Ivey and Burks being out will open up minutes and opportunities for Killian Hayes and Marcus Sasser, both guys will look good again in this one. Sasser had a pretty terrible first half last time out but still had an awesome game when all was said and done. His price tag is up, but he looks to score when he’s out there. Cade Cunningham continues to play massive minutes and will be a guy I’ll have interest in here, he’s too cheap considering the upside we’ve seen from him. Isaiah Stewart is a fine option but does take a hit with Duren in there, the one thing we do know is the minutes will be there. Speaking of Duren, he returned last time out and kept it rolling even with some foul trouble, but he’ll have his hands full with Embiid in this one. Then, Ausar Thompson has been great as well and is filling up the stat sheet, his price is up, but I like the floor/ceiling combination.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Cade Cunningham
4-star play: Tobias Harris, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren, Marcus Sasser, Ausar Thompson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Oubre Jr., Isaiah Stewart
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Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -10.5
Starting with the Nets, they’ll be without Cam Thomas and Nic Claxton while Ben Simmons comes in as questionable. They’ll get Cam Johnson back but could come off the bench or see a minutes restriction at the very least after missing their last few weeks. There’s going to be a lot more usage and shots to go around with Thomas out, below is how they operate with Claxton and Thomas off of the court this season:
- Spencer Dinwiddie – 19.9% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 22.9% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
- Royce O’Neale – 15.0% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Dorian Finney-Smith – 12.4% usage rate; 0.66 fpm
- Ben Simmons – 11.7% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
I would expect Bridges and Dinwiddie to absorb a lot of those shots left open with Thomas out and look like nice options, but the matchup is really tough against this Boston defense. Lonnie Walker should help fill in off the bench as well and he’s been exceptional to start the season. I never really look to force guys like O’Neale and Finney-Smith into my lineups, but they’re fine filler pieces. Even with Thomas out, there isn’t a ton that I think we NEED to get to from this team in a tough matchup. From the Celtics, Derrick White returned last time out and was launched into 38 minutes, so it’s clear he’s back and ready to play big minutes after missing a week of action, he’ll look like a solid secondary piece. It’s hard for me to prioritize anyone from this team with how many options they have on offense, the guy would be Jayson Tatum, but you’re going to pay for that with his price tag. Guys like Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Jaylen Brown are all fine options in that $7-8k range, but good luck predicting which one will have the big night on any given night. With White back, Al Horford returned to the bench and saw his minutes take a hit, he’s priced up and probably not a guy we need on this slate.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, Dorian Finney-Smith, Lonnie Walker, Cam Johnson
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -4.5
Starting with the Jazz, we saw Keyonte George get the start with Walker Kessler set to miss the next few weeks. I had originally thought we’d see Kelly Olynyk in the starting five but that wasn’t the case. George saw 30 minutes and was solid but he’s seen a sizeable price increase. Speaking of Olynyk, he came off of the bench and struggled with fouls from the jump otherwise he’s probably seeing 25+ minutes, I think he’s a great mid-range center option even if he comes off of the bench again. Lauri Markkanen has been fine as of late but feels like he’s priced right where he should be, we don’t need to force him in. Jordan Clarkson bounced back in a big way against the Pacers and gets another nice matchup in this one. John Collins is another guy who has been good for them but is priced all the way up to the point where I don’t think we can confidently roster him. Lastly, Talen Horton-Tucker’s minutes are all over the place making him hard to trust as well. From the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Xavier Tillman again in this one meaning Bismack Biyombo will likely draw the start at center again. Biyombo has looked solid in his first couple of games and is playing good minutes, as they need his size. He’s right in that Olynyk tier of center options who look good. Jaren Jackson Jr. went right back to his old ways right after I commend him for keeping the fouls down, but the minutes were still mostly there for him. It was a tough matchup but gets a great bounce-back spot in this one. Desmond Bane struggled as well and is priced right about where he should be, I’m fine with whatever exposure I land with him. Then Marcus Smart and Ziaire Williams are fine options in all formats to fill lineups with.
5-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr.
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George, Kelly Olynyk, Desmond Bane, Bismack Biyombo, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: Luke Kennard
GPP Sleeper: Luke Kennard, Talen Horton-Tucker, John Collins, Ziaire Williams
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Min -6.0
Starting with the Wolves, Anthony Edwards has been in great form with at least 45 FanDuel points in four of his last five games and gets a great matchup in this one. Karl-Anthony Towns is at the point where either his price tag needs to come way down or he needs to pick up his production before I go back to rostering him. I do like the price tag on Rudy Gobert again, he had a monster game last time out and should be able to do what he wants against Collins down low. Jaden McDaniels saw his minutes come down last time out but is a main piece of this rotation, I still think he’s a solid mid-range option if you land on him. Then guys like Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson are secondary tournament options. Naz continues to pop in our lineup optimizer, he’s been great on a point-per-minute basis. From the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama came down to Earth last time out against the Knicks and gets a tough matchup with what has shown to be a tough Wolves defense this season. I’ll never talk you off of him at this price tag, but he’s going to be volatile. Devin Vassell was unlikely to play last time out and then played…12 minutes, welcome to the NBA. I would think he’s a go here, but it’s hard to trust him after that game. Keldon Johnson has been fine but is priced right where he should be. Zach Collins is a guy that I’ve played a lot this season, but similar to Wemby, gets a tough matchup in this one, that said, the price is nice and he’s a great point-per-minute guy. Jeremy Sochan has great PG/SF eligibility and bounced back nicely last time out, he’s going to be volatile making him more of a tournament option. Lastly, Tre Jones is in a similar boat, his minutes are going to be killed in blowouts with coming off of the bench but he’s a fine option at this price tag.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, Victor Wembanyama, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, Jeremy Sochan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones
New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 217.0
Vegas Spread: Hou -2.0
Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll be without CJ McCollum again in this one meaning we should see Jordan Hawkins in the starting lineup again. Zion Williamson comes in as questionable after missing last game for the birth of his child, but I would assume he’s back in this one. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Brandon Ingram – 34.8% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Jordan Hawkins – 24.3% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Herbert Jones – 14.5% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Zion Williamson – 28.9% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 18.3% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
Ingram will be my favorite option here as he runs the point with McCollum out but the rest of this starting lineup is going to look good as well. Hawkins will continue to start but disappointed as chalk last time out, his price tag came up which makes him much less enticing. Zion looks great as well in a nice matchup against this Rockets defense. Guys like Jones and JoVal make sense as secondary options as well. From the Rockets, Alperen Sengun comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, but for now, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. His price tag has come down a bit and will look like a solid option here. Fred VanVleet has come down to Earth after a few big games but is the main playmaker in this offense in a good matchup. It’s hard to imagine a game where both he and Jalen Green have big games and Green has been in the better form. Then guys like Jabari Smith Jr. and Dillon Brooks are solid mid-range options who should see good minutes.
5-star play: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson
4-star play: Jordan Hawkins, Jonas Valanciunas, Alperen Sengun, Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr.
Deeper Value: Tari Eason
GPP Sleeper: Herbert Jones, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -2.0
Starting with the Clippers, it’s extremely hard to know what to do with this team with James Harden joining Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard as high-usage players. Harden has been fine from a fantasy perspective in his first few games, but not relative to his price tag. His presence seemed to harm the production for Kawhi and George and will be GPP options for me, at best. I do think Russell Westbrook is interesting given the price tag, he’s playing big minutes but has taken a hit with Harden in there as well. Lastly, Ivica Zubac is a fine option who should see his minutes solidify with Mason Plumlee now out with injury. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic bounced back nicely last time out and is going to be a nice spend-up option yet again on this slate. Kyrie Irving had a pretty meh game last time out and it’s pretty clear it’s going to be tough for Kyrie and Luka to have big games relative to their price tags on the same night. Dereck Lively struggled with fouls last time out but has been impressive at the very least from the eye test. He’s an interesting GPP option but does use up a center spot. I do think the price tag on Tim Hardaway is solid enough that he can produce a ceiling outcome in a solid matchup. You can make a case for Grant Williams, but I can’t do it on this slate and that price tag… I think I’d rather take a shot on Derrick Jones Jr. who had a nice game last time out.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Ivica Zubac, Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: Derrick Jones Jr.
GPP Sleeper: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Dereck Lively, Grant Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a massive game last time out and gets a great matchup here against the Kings who are getting throttled defensively, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four and is in for a huge season. Josh Giddey continues to be priced up and is probably not a guy I want to get to with SGA back, he demands a bunch of usage in order to produce that price tag and it’ll be tough to do with SGA in there. Chet Holmgren has looked good and is seeing a bunch of minutes, it’s a great matchup, and is a guy who makes sense in all formats. Jalen Williams is in the same boat as Giddey, I just don’t love the price tag with this team healthy. Then Lu Dort has at least 33 DraftKings in three straight games and is a solid GPP option. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox will remain out, but we did see a starting lineup change as we saw Keon Ellis start over Davion Mitchell last time out. I would assume they do the same again in this one. Below is how this team has operated with him off of the court this season:
- Keon Ellis – 19.0% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Kevin Huerter – 21.7% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Harrison Barnes – 14.6% usage rate; 0.60 fpm
- Keegan Murray – 19.9% usage rate; 0.68 fpm
- Domantas Sabonis – 23.8% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
Sabonis bounced back in a big way last time out and looks good here in a revenge game against his old squad. Murray and Barnes feel like similar options, but Murray probably has a higher ceiling. I don’t love Mitchell due to his point-per-minute production that we’ve seen throughout his career, especially on a big slate. Lastly, Huerter looked good last time out as well and makes sense as a mid-range option.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Keon Ellis, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: Keon Ellis
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Williams, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Lakers, Anthony Davis missed their last game and comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Christian Wood started in his place last time out but was terrible… he’s been a monster from a point-per-minute basis in his career and would probably be a guy I’d be okay going back to in this one if he starts especially if the public is off of him after a down game. In fairness, nobody on this team looked good in a blowout loss to the Rockets, so I’m willing to overlook a lot of that game. If Davis plays, he and LeBron James are going to be the pieces you want from this team for obvious reasons. D’Angelo Russell has seen good minutes this season and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Lastly, Austin Reaves came crashing down to Earth after a massive game against the Heat. He would be another guy who I’d be alright with as a lineup filler. From the Suns, they’ll be without Devin Booker again but Bradley Beal will be good to go. He played 24 minutes but shot the ball terribly, I’ll want to see him kick his minutes restriction before I want to pay this price tag for him. Kevin Durant is playing all the minutes he can handle and has at least 49.5 DraftKings points in three straight, he’ll look good again in this one. Jusuf Nurkic had a monster double-double last time out and fell just short of a triple-double, I have no issue going back to him as well, they’ll need his size especially if Davis is out there. Grayson Allen of all people dropped a 50-burger as soon as Beal returned, because well, that just makes sense… right? Both he and Eric Gordon are fine tournament flyers here to round out the slate.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kevin Durant
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Jusuf Nurkic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bradley Beal, Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen
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