10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 9 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 8 Recap:

Draftkings:

CJ Stroud – 12.9 pts | QB22 | 2.0x value

Kirk Cousins – 19.86 pts. | QB11| 2.87x value

Travis Etienne – 25.9 pts | RB4| 3.6x value

Darrell Henderson – 11.5 pts | RB14 | 2.4x value 

Drake London – 10.5 pts | WR39 | 2.05x value 

Fanduel:

Desmond Ridder – 3.44 pts| QB29 | 0.5x value

Alvin Kamara – 25 pts | RB3| 3x value

Gus Edwards – 28.4 pts | RB1 | 4.3x value

Jahan Dotson – 20.8 pts | WR7| 3.9x value

Darrell Waller – 0.9pts | WR12 | 0.1x value (INJURED)

NOT A BAD WEEK!! Hit a 2.58x value on the Draftkings picks and 2.9x value on the Fanduel picks and that  was including a 0.5x with Ridder who stunk it up (Waller not included because hew as injured early). Hitting the RB 1, 3, 4 and is really nice. Kamara ended up getting chalky but Gus Edwards was the key to taking down GPP’s this week so love to hit that.

Another week with some duds though, this time at QB and I think that it is going to be even harder to find good plays at QB going forward due to all the injuries. over 1/3 of the starters this weekend will be guys who were either backups or even 3rd string to start the season.

Alas, we have another week, and another chance to take down a tournament! You KNOW I’m digging deep again with lots of teams on bye and will have all the punts for you below!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Taylor Heinicke QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 3.67%

Salary: DK $500

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on the standard guys like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson but you are going to be paying a premium for them and there are plenty of cheaper options with tons of upside, the problem is that the vast majority of the cheap options are either backups or third string quarterbacks who are starting.

Of those backups and third stringers, my favorite is Taylor Heinicke who is starting in place of 10 under 10 favorite Desmond Ridder. 

We know what we get with Heinicke, a gunslinger who isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield. Which while it can lead to interceptions, is a boon for fantasy football. He’s going up against the Vikings who, while a bit improved in the secondary, are still a pass funnel defense.

I would expect to see him throw the ball 35+ times. I know that the Vegas line is 27.5 but I LOVE the over here. The issue here is the coach. He doesn’t always do what necessarily makes the most sense when it comes to this team (see Bijan Robinson‘s usage or lack their of) so there’s always some risk with this play. At this price though he has to do very little to hit value.

Pair with Drake London who I expect to play or if he doesn’t then Kyle Pitts would be my primarily target (though if London ends up out I’ll be significantly lowering my exposure to Heinicke).

 

Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 5.3%

Salary: DK $5200

Cheap and gets to go against a Houston defense that has been pretty mediocre the last few weeks. Mayfield has put up 20+ DK points in 3 of 7 games so far this year and should have a chance to do it again.

He has an elite set of WR’s to throw the ball to and pair with in stacks. My preferred option is Mike Evans who is a beast. Godwin is fine and a PPR monster at times so there’s definitely value there as well.

I do love the other side of the ball in this game too and guys like Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and even Noah Brown (who you’ll hear about later) are viable as run it back pieces.

I think this game has the potential to blow up and hit the over and if it does, then Mayfield has a real chance at being in the nuts.

AJ Dillon RB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: DK 1.85%

Salary: DK $4900

With Aaron Jones unlikely to go this weekend or if he does, he’ll be limited and Dillon could be in for a bigger role.

Look, RB is very concentrated this week and the chalk plays are all in great spots, so it’s a bit thin for the low owned plays, but I don’t hate getting exposure to a guy that could have an increased role.

Going against the Rams who couldn’t stop me running between the tackles, let alone a monster like Dillon. Super cheap and has seen a slight uptick in passing game work lately too with Jones dealing with the injury.

Michael Thomas WR New Orleans Saints

Ownership: 7.4%

Salary: DK $4700

Love me some MT against the trash Bears. While Olave and Shaheed have been had splash weeks, Thomas has continued to produce solid results at a very reasonable price.

7 or 8 targets every single week. 50 to 60 yards and he’s due some positive TD regression. No better spot than now against the Bears and this very mediocre secondary.

Juju Smith-Schuster WR New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 1.4%

Salary: DK $3100

Kendrick Bourne is on the injured reserve now, and DeVante Parker is unlikely to go this week as he deals with a concussion. That leaves Juju as the main guy in this offense.

Look I get that he’s been terrible, but we’re talking about a dead min guy who is competing against Demario Douglas, Tyquan Thornton, Kayshon Boutte, and Jalen Reagor.

Washington is so so so bad on defense and they just traded their two best players. The Pats, even with Mac Jones at the helm here, could put up a big number and if they do I would expect Juju to be involved.

He’s dead min price, low owned, worth some milly maker shots here.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Derek Carr QB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD 4.4%

Salary: FD $7100

Kinda love Derek Carr against the Bears this week. He’s been sneaky consistent all season long (except for that primetime game where he looked terrible). He’s thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last three games and has had more than 50 attempts in two of his last three.

The Bears will hopefully get Justin Fields back this week but even if they don’t, they should be at least somewhat competitive against the Saints here. Regardless the Saints should score multiple times here and have an implied team total of 24.75 which is second best on the slate.

Love pairing Carr with Michael Thomas, but Chris Olave is due a monster game at some point, and I don’t hate him with Alvin Kamara either.

Dak Prescott QB Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: FD: 8.38%

Salary: FD $8200

Game of the week and Dak isn’t projecting as super chalky? Yes please!

He’s been great the last month or so and has put up some monster scores. Gets to go up against the Eagles in the game of the week and one that could potentially be a shoot out.

The Eagles defense is trash. The Cowboys is great. The Eagles offense is great. The Cowboys offense is great. That spells a nice day for the Cowboys offense here.

Pair Dak with Ceedee Lamb as that’s the obvious play but if you’ve read this article or watched any of my videos, I LOVE Jake Ferguson and think a double stack is absolutely in play.

Royce Freeman RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: FD 0.1%

Salary: FD $5700

Darrell Henderson is the ‘lead back’ and while I do love him, I think there’s definitely some viability to playing Royce Freeman here. He outstsnapped Hendo last week and while he didn’t have as many carries, he was more productive in the ones he got, and I think could potentially be the guy here against Green Bay.

Regardless of the split in carries, I think both Henderson and Freeman will see elevated roles this week with Brett Rypien starting at QB as Matthew Stafford is out. Should see 10+ carries each against a Green Bay front 7 that has struggled to stop anyone all year.

Noah Brown WR Houston Texans

Ownership: FD 1.92%

Salary: FD $4800

Brown stepped into the Robert Woods role last week for the Texans and flourished. He was second on the team in targets and led the team in yards from scrimmage.

Super cheap price here and I expect the Texans to get back on track against a Tampa Bay team that is great against the run but poor against the pass. We should Stroud throw it 30 times again which would be great for all the wide receivers here.

Love Brown as a one off or a run it back piece in a Baker Mayfield stack.

Cole Kmet TE Chicago Bears

Ownership: FD 2.79%

Salary: FD: $5700

Kmet had a monster week against the Raiders and now gets the Saints who are pretty tough in the secondary, but with Tyson Bagent back under center this week, he should see a similar target load especially with Lattimore on Moore on the outside.

He’s a little priced up on FD but the options are pretty limited this week. The ownership will pool on Goedert and rightfully so but I think that Kmet’s upside, as he showed last week, is better than Goederts here.

 

***GPP WINNING DEFENSE***

New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+2, 37)

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $2300/FD $4000

This Giants defense under Wink Martindale is GOOD. DON’T SLEEP ON THEM.

I’ve been writing up the Giants in this spot for the last two weeks and I’m going to continue to do so. They put a respectable 12 points last week for their 3rd double digit point total in the last 4 weeks.

Now they get to go against the Aiden O’Connell led Raiders who looked terrible on Monday night against the Lions. Smash spot here, super low owned. Love them again.

NOTE: They are a little higher owned on DK but I think that’s fine considering the price over there.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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