10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 12 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 11 Recap:

Draftkings:

Dorian Thompson-Robinson – 7.6 pts | QB20| 1.7x value

Kyler Murray – 22.66 pts. | QB7 | 3.7x value

Derrick Henry – 5.4 pts | RB30 | 0.85x value

Brandon Aiyuk – 29.6 pts | WR5 | 4.11x value 

Jake Ferguson – 6.2 pts | TE17 | 1.34x value

Fanduel:

Trevor Lawrence – 32.18 pts| QB1 | 4.6x value

Justin Fields – 21.16 pts | QB7 | 2.9x value

Rico Dowdle – 3 pts | RB1000| 0.6x value

Puka Nacua (video addition as Noah Brown as out) – 16.2 pts | WR13| 2.2x value

Romeo Doubs – 13.8 pts | WR15 | 2.2x value

2.34x and 2.5x  return on value on Draftkings and Fanduel respective, which was MUCH better than last week! QB continues to be a solid place to find value on both sites and I crushed it once again, identifying Trevor Lawrence who ended up being the top QB for the week on both sites.

Running back continues to be a disaster outside of the chalk. Unless it’s an absolute smash play we shouldn’t be taking chances on RB’s that are under 10% owned, so going forward, unless I have a real conviction about a guy, I’m not playing any RB that’s going to be under 10% owned.

WR was improved this week, as I hit multiple guys who were solid, but primarily Brandon Aiyuk who had a monster game and returned over 4x value.

Really small slate this week because of the Thanksgiving/Black Friday games so the ownership will be pooled on certain games, which makes things difficult, but also provides intriguing leverage possibilities.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: DK 5.65%

Salary: DK $6000

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on the standard guys like Trevor Lawrence which shows you that recency bias is alive and well.

One of my favorite plays on the slate though, is Kyler Murray against the Division II defense that is the Los Angeles Rams.

In his two starts since returning from injury, Murray has ran for a TD in both of them, and thrown for one as well. He’s throwing a ton for a guy that relies on his legs, and while the yardage isn’t crazy it’s still solid. He’s continuing to get more comfortable in this offense again and this week we should see what he really can do in a prime matchup.

Pair him up with Marquise Brown or Trey McBride, I’m not convinced that the Greg Dortch smash last week will continue, but you could go there as well. Crazy upside and the floor is pretty solid too.

Jake Browning QB Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 2.63%

Salary: DK $5200

Browning takes the reins from Joe Burrow who is out with a season ending injury and I expect him to be just fine, especially at this price point.

No Tee Higgins this week again, but with all the skill guys he has around him, he should be able to make something work. He has rushing upside as well, going 4 for 40 in relief last week.

Steelers are a good not great defense and we should see Browning have enough time to make some throws. The price is so low, on a good offense, in a decent matchup, he should easily hit value.

Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers

Ownership: DK 4.9%

Salary: DK $7300

Thielen has been in the milly maker winning lineup multiple times this season and now, in a great matchup, is trending towards under 5% owned.

11 and 10 targets the last two weeks, just hasn’t found the end zone. I’m confident he does this week against a Titans defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL against opposing WR’s.

Great option on both sites as a true #1 that is going massively underowned.

Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: 5.91%

Salary: DK $3600

Mega, mega cheap. Had sort of fallen to the wayside for a bit with the emergence of Dalton Kincaid but got back in a big way against the Jets as he brought in an 81 yard reception.

With new offensive coordinator Joe Brady we may end up seeing more of these 3 wr sets and more usage for a guy like Shakir who should get the prime underneath matchup.

Low floor, but in this potential shootout, I think that he gets there and has a huge game.

Taysom Hill TE New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 2.41%

Salary: DK $5000

Gross. I can’t even believe that I’m writing this…but Taysom Hill is in play this week.

He’s a TE who does it all, and while the floor is SUPER low, the ceiling is SUPER high and on a slate like this he could easily ebe the top TE if he gets involved multiple ways like he has done a few times this season.

The Falcons are a divisional matchup and they are a pretty awful defense. I like him more if Winston starts, but he has put up his best performances with Carr under center so either way is fine.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Baker Mayfield QB Tamba Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD 5.56%

Salary: FD $6800

Baker Mayfield is a good QB. Let me repeat that. Baker Mayfield is a good QB. Seriously.

Take away the matchup against San Fran’s elite defense last week and here’s his last 4 games.

19.31, 19, 21.38, 17.2 Fanduel points.

That’s really solid value considering his price point. The ceiling isn’t massive, but it’s about what you can do with the rest of your lineup.

Gets to go up against the Colts who have been shredded by everyone through the air. Godwin, Evans, and Palmer are all healthy and viable stack pieces. Love Mayfield this week and think he ends up a top 5 fantasy QB.

Josh Allen QB Buffalo Bills

Ownership: FD: 6.66%

Salary: FD $9300

Josh Allen is pricey this week, but it’s keeping his ownership to a crazy low number. Goes up against the Eagles who are not stopping anyone, and despite throwing a bunch of picks the last few weeks, Allen is still putting up respectable numbers and has gone over 23 FD points in four of his last five.

The price is obviously prohibitive, but there’s definitely ways to make it work, especially if you roster him with Khalil Shakir who is mega cheap on both sites. I think the sneaky way to play Allen this week is to stack him with Shakir and Dalton Kincaid and fade Stefon Diggs, as scary as that sounds. It just builds a much more well rounded roster.

Run it backs aren’t necessary, but if you wanted to play someone like Swift or Smith, I’m fine with the game stack here.

Kyren Williams RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: FD 8%

Salary: FD $8200

Look, I know that I wrote above that I’m not longer going to be writing up RB’s, but I’m making an exception here for Williams who is coming off the IR here for a prime matchup against the Cardinals.

Williams should be a full go and take over the top spot in this backfield. Put up 24 points the last time these two teams played (and it was his last game as he was injured).

Just a ton of upside at low ownership. In a normal week, if he’d been healthy he’d be at least 18-20% owned.

Diontae Johnson WR Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: FD 5.6%

Salary: FD $6400

8 targets from Kenny Pickett last week but he was only able to bring in 2 of them. Look, he’s been bad, this whole offense has, but gets a much better matchup this week against the Bengals, it’s a true get right spot.

Needs a TD, but the volume is really nice. If Cincy sells out to stop the run game which has been the only thing that’s been working, then we could see Johnson or Pickens have a nice game.

Extremely speculative, but worth a few darts in GPP.

Justin Watson WR Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 5.24%

Salary: FD: $5100

Watson smashed on Monday night against the Eagles and gets another prime matchup against the Raiders. Had a ridiculous 11 targets from Mahomes.

It feels a bit chasey here following that performance but Mahomes trusts him and the rest of the WR in this offense like Marquez Valdes Scantling are really bad. Essentially we’re getting a potential #1 WR for the price of a WR#4. The floor is low, but the ceiling is high.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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