10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 10 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 8 Recap:

Draftkings:

Taylor Heinicke – 15.72 pts | QB10 | 3.14x value

Baker Mayfield – 19 pts. | QB7 | 3.65x value

AJ Dillon – 5.3 pts | RB25| 1.08x value

Juju Smith-Schuster – 11.0 pts | WR19 | 3.54x value 

Michael Thomas – 0 pts | WR10000 | 0x value, massive dud.

Fanduel:

Derek Carr – 16.74 pts| QB9 | 2.4x value

Dak Prescott – 28.6 pts | QB2| 3.5x value

Royce Freeman – 3.2 pts | RB32 | 0.6x value

Noah Brown – 24.3 pts | WR2| 5.1x value

Cole Kmet – 20.5 pts | TE2 | 3.6x value

Finally over 3x value on FD!!! 3.06x and that included an absolute dud from Royce Freeman (though he led that backfield, the Rams just stink.) Had THREE players be the second best option at their position, which is fantastic. Feel like we’re really hitting our stride over on FD. Hit a 2.28x value on the Draftkings picks mostly due to the absolute zero dud from Mike Thomas in just an elite spot. So annoying. Still a solid week overall.

My biggest takeaway from 9 weeks of the season is that RB Chalk is chalk thatwe just need to eat every week. Unless it’s an absolute smash play we shouldn’t be taking chances on RB’s that are under 10% owned, so going forward, unless I have a real conviction about a guy, I’m not playing any RB that’s going to be under 10% owned.

Much better week here even though lots of solid teams are on bye. We still have some potential shootout games with low owned players in great spots, so HERE. WE. GO!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Will Levis QB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 4.33%

Salary: DK $5300

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having low totals. Chalk is coming in on the standard guys like Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson again this week but you are going to be paying a premium for them and there are plenty of cheaper options with tons of upside, the problem is that the vast majority of the cheap options are either backups or third string quarterbacks who are starting.

Of those backups and former third stringers, my favorite is Will Levis who looks great so far in his limited starts, throwing some fantastic balls and while he didn’t throw for a TD against the Steelers last week, he was still hucking it, throwing it 39 times.

The Bucs just got absolutely shredded by CJ Stroud, and while Levis isn’t on that level, he’s still very serviceable QB with decent weapons at his disposal and more importantly they are cheap. A Titans stack with Levis/Hopkins/Okonkwo leaves you with around 6k left per player, meaning you can essentially play whoever you want after that.

I love the otherside of this game too, and think we can have a sneaky shootout here. Stack however you want but my preferred option is Levis/Hopkins/Okonkwo/White or Evans.

 

Sam Howell QB Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 3.84%

Salary: DK $5900

Sam Howell is the future here in Washington. He’s been really solid all season but of late it’s been even better, throwing it 42 times or more in each of his last 3 games and going over 300 yards passing in two of those. Also brings a little rushing upside to the table.

Gets a solid matchup against the Seahawks who have been decent, but also give up big plays and lots of passing yards. Love pairing him with Jahan Dotson who has been his favorite target of late, or Terry McLaurin, but I think McLaurin is a bit overpriced.

Don’t need a run back but literally anyone on that side of the ball is viable because the Commanders defense is ‘dog water’ as the youngin’s like to say.

Austin Ekeler RB Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 6.03%

Salary: DK $8400

Not sure why Ekeler is projecting under 10% owned on both sites but here we are. Do NOT be scared of that red 2 next to the OPRK. Lions defense is decent but they aren’t some dominant force. And we’ve seen Ekeler can do against a good defense last week on the road against the Jets.

Now he’s home and I expect his usage to still be super high with all the issues in the WR room. The injuries to Palmer and Mike Williams really just mean more passing game work for Ekeler. Had 7 targets last week and only was able to bring in two, but think that that is a bit of an outlier because his catch rate has been much higher all season.

Much better DK play than FD with the PPR but viable on both sites and think he smashes.

Jahan Dotson WR Washington Commanders

Ownership: 6.58%

Salary: DK $5000

Dotson has been the number one receiver the last two weeks for the Commanders. TD’s in each of his last two games and 18 targets over that time span.

With the Seahawks likely focusing on Scary Terry, Dotson should get the preferred matchup. He also benefits by the continued injuries in the WR room. I mean, he’s going to get passes over Jamison Crowder every day.

Solid value at 5k, and think he’s viable on FD too. NO reason for him to be this low owned.

Chig Okonkwo TE Tennessee Titans

Ownership: DK 6.4%

Salary: DK $3000

Love a good cheap TE, especially on a week where there aren’t many elite TE options outside of Mark Andrews (Jake Ferguson is my second favorite, but he’s still 1600 more than Chig). Played a season high in snaps last week and also ran a season high in routes.

Love the Titans passing game against the Bucs and while I’ll have plenty of Levis stacks, Okonkwo is absolutely viable as a one off and he’ll be my highest owned TE on the slate.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 3.2%

Salary: FD $8000

This is the ‘What are we doing here?!’ play of the week. I get that Goff is expensive but he’s been a monster all year and while yes this on the road where at times he’s struggled, it’s against the Chargers whose secondary has just been getting torched by everyone.

Amon Ra is healthy, and the running game is too which means this should be a smash spot for the Lions to go off. It’s the highest total game of the week and the Lions have the 3rd highest team total on the slate. Goff in a similar spot on the road at Tampa put up 22 FD points.

Smash spot, stack him with Amon Ra or my Jameson Williams and LaPorta and move on.

ONE THING TO NOTE: Just because a crazy triple stack won the Milly last week doesn’t mean we should be looking to do that again, that’s one of the rarest combinations there is for GPP’s.

Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD: 5.8%

Salary: FD $6600

Really tough first half last week, but Mayfield just kept plugging away and ended up with a top 8 QB score for the week. Going against the Texans who have been solid against the pass, but haven’t really played against anyone with an elite set of receivers like the Bucs have.

Doesn’t matter the matchup, Mayfield shows up every week and puts up close to 20 FD points at a discounted price tag. Love what the rest of the lineup looks like with him and Evans/Godwin in it. He’s going to have a spike week at somepoint too, and put up 28ish FD points and we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank when that happens.

Michael Thomas WR New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD 0.1%

Salary: FD $5700

Even though he got a zero last week against the Bears, everything that I said about Michael Thomas continues to be true. He’s still due positive TD regression, he’s still super steady, and he still commands a ton of targets.

I’m not letting one weird week get me off a guy who has been producing like he has all season. Bounce back incoming. Clearly I’m confident in this play because he’s going against my Vikings who have been much improved in the secondary, though I think his matchup is probably best as more of the possession type receiver as the Vikings have been much better against the deep ball, which hurts Olave a bit and Shaheed a lot.

Rondale Moore WR Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: FD 3.8%

Salary: FD $4700

Rondale Moore is a bit of a punt here just due to the fact that he has done NOTHING all season, but the return of Kyler Murray should really boost his stock.

Had tons of success with Murray at the helm last year and I would expect that he starts right where they left off.

Clearly a risky play but at the price with the potential upside in a matchup against the Falcons is really intriguing to me in GPP.

Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 0.5%

Salary: FD: $5400

Really think that Williams is poised for a breakout here after the bye. He’s the second best WR in this offense and while he’s clearly the 3rd option behind St. Brown and LaPorta, the upside is massive in this matchup against the Chargers and their awful secondary.

233 air yards on 15 targets. Goff is looking at him on the deep ball. Think he has a massive upside in this game and is going to start becoming the clear WR2 here ahead of Reynolds and Raymond. Get in now before he blows up.

***GPP WINNING DEFENSE***

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants (-16.5, 38.5)

Ownership: DK 8%/FD 10%

Salary: DK $440/FD $5200

Generational wealth spot with the Cowboys elite Defense against the Tommy Devito lead New York Giants. I’ll pay whatever price and eat whatever ownership in this spot, don’t overthink it.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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