Zero to Hero: Dominating the NHL Season with Smart Bets – October 18
Hi, all. Over halfway through October…the weather is changing…the holidays are right around the corner… What a great time of year.
The premise of each article in this series is to feature a few “safe” foundational plays to build some strong cash lines around as well as to offer any props or straight bets that have some solid potential. We’re looking for players and teams that have a solid floor and are in a good spot matchup-wise; these will be the building blocks of a booming bankroll. (Yeah, I alliterized…deal with it.) I will also provide a recap from the day before and rewind to see if we were on the right plays. Keep in mind that just like a regular season, the building of a solid bankroll is a grind – it requires patience, mental fortitude, and discipline to weather the cold streaks until things turn around and you go on a heater.
Recap from 10/17
Player builder: Filip Forsberg (four shots but couldn’t crack the scoresheet) ❌
Stack builder: EDM PP1 (two goals and four assists from these players just on the power play; additionally, three goals and eight assists elsewhere) ✅
Bet builder: CAR/NYI ML parlay ✅
Bet Builder Record: 4-1; +3.67 units
THE BUILDER – OCTOBER 18
The Player Builder: Dylan Larkin ($6600 DK / $6800 FD)
Larkin has been off to a great start so far (and so have the Wings). He has a goal and two assists in Detroit’s first three games, but the more encouraging thing is that he has taken 18 shots. Having Alex DeBrincat on his line has opened up the ice a little, and as a result he has become more aggressive in his attacking. The Wings are also hitting at a 40% clip on the power play, and he centers that top line as well. He is priced well and is also less expensive than a few of the other studs on the slate (depending on the site, he’s less than Crosby, Stuetzle, Tkachuk, and even ice-cold Ovechkin). Detroit plays the Penguins tonight, a team that has an offense loaded with stars and a defense that isn’t that intimidating, and both factors should lead to a positive environment for scoring.
The Stack Builder: OTT1 (Tkachuk/Stuetzle/Giroux/Chychrun/Chabot)
The Senators’ top line has been very successful in the early going. Brady Tkachuk is the volume shooter and scorer he’s always been, notching four goals in his first three games. Tim Stuetzle, Claude Giroux, and Jacob Chychrun have all scored at least three points so far as well, and Thomas Chabot is holding down the fort defensively, allowing the others to find the open ice. The three forwards also slot in on the top power play line, which has scored at a 27% clip. Tonight the play the Washington Capitals, a team that hasn’t managed to find its groove yet. The team has only managed two goals in its first two games, and Alex Ovechkin has been held off the scoresheet. This line will probably be pretty chalky, but it’s a solid play. The Senators are at home for this matchup (found at around -165, a fairly comfortable number), and I expect them to take care of business on their home ice.
The Bet Builder: Larkin O 3.5 shots / Malkin O 2.5 shots (parlay around +200)
Larkin has been extremely aggressive this season with 18 shots over his first three games. He faces a fairly average Pittsburgh defense. Malkin has been close to Larkin’s pace, scoring two goals on 15 shots in the Pens’ first three games. This is a game stack with a lot of stars and which should produce a lot of offense, and this parlay at around +200 together should produce good value.
Oct 14, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Red Wings center Dylan Larkin celebrates a goal by right wing Alex DeBrincat against Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Jonas Johansson during first-period action on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Detroit, Michigan. Mandatory Credit: Kirthmon F. Dozier-USA TODAY Sports
