Kickstart your excitement for Week 5 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.
Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!
Oct 1, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) celebrates his rushing touchdown with wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) in the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Quarterbacks:
Daniel Jones ($5.8k at Miami Dolphins)
Danny Dimes comes in as our top point-per-dollar quarterback option on the week against the Dolphins on the road. Many people will be hesitant after that Monday Night Football game against the Seahawks, but even with how bad that Giants offense looked he was able to get 11.72 DraftKings points, which isn’t great, but all things considered, fine. That offensive line was atrocious which is part of the struggles for him, but he gives you a really nice rushing floor with at least 43 rushing yards in each game this season. I would expect the Giants to have to throw a ton to keep up with this Dolphins offense as well. They should get Saquon Barkley back which should open up the offense at the very least and isn’t a terrible stacking option with him. The issue does come with stacking, Darren Waller was invisible, and his favorite target looked like Wan’Dale Robinson who doesn’t catch the ball downfield, so I don’t hate the idea of running him naked. We have him projected for 18.64 DraftKings points giving him 3.21x his DraftKings price tag.
Kenny Pickett ($5.0k vs. Baltimore Ravens)
For the second straight week, Pickett comes in as the second-ranked point per dollar option but will need to keep an eye on his injury designation as he left the game early on Sunday. That said, I can’t say I’m thrilled to roster him in a tough matchup against a good Ravens defense that is currently ranked 4th in DVOA. This will be a price play as he does have at least a little upside at this price and can stack him up with any of George Pickens, Calvin Austin, and maybe even Darnell Washington with Pat Freiermuth out. Like I said, he’s not my favorite option, but if you need to spend down at the position we have him projected for 15.74 DraftKings points giving him 3.15x his price tag.
Russell Wilson ($5.7k vs. New York Jets)
As bad as this Broncos team is, Wilson has been fairly productive for fantasy with at least 15 DraftKings points in every game and at least 22 in two of those. He gets a tough matchup against this Jets defense, however, which is probably better than their 18th-ranked DVOA ranks. The big play has proven to be there as he ranks 3rd in deep ball attempts and is 2nd in touchdowns thrown on the season. You can stack him with a number of options between Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Marvin Mims who looked great last week. We have him protected for 17.68 DraftKings points giving him 3.1x his DraftKings price tag.
Click here for full Quarterback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Running Backs:
Miles Sanders ($5.2k at Detroit Lions)
Miles Sanders comes in as the top point per dollar running back on the week against the Lions. He has at least 12.8 DraftKings points in two of his four games on the season but gets a matchup with a tough Detroit run defense which you’ll see is a trend with these top-value running backs. The nice thing with Sanders is you get the pass game upside, he ranks 2nd among running backs in targets with 23 on the season giving you a very nice floor at the very least. We have him projected for 12.93 DraftKings points giving him 2.49x his price tag.
Zack Moss ($5.8k vs. Tennessee Titans)
Jonathan Taylor did return to practice and Moss won’t be a guy that makes my player pool if he’s able to play, but if he’s out he’s at least an option. That said, this Titans run defense is no joke as it ranks 2nd in the league in DVOA against the run. The tough thing about the matchup is he’s a volume running back, so he needs the carries to kind of kickstart him and I don’t necessarily see that happening here. He has at least 20.7 DraftKings points in two of his three games on the season which is hard to ignore and he’s 2nd among running backs with an 85.8% snap share on the season. We have him projected for 14.32 DraftKings points giving him 2.47x his price tag.
Javonte Williams ($5.5k vs. New York Jets)
Williams is another guy that we need to make sure is available as he left the game last week. He’s another guy that gets a tough matchup against this Jets defense and we haven’t quite seen it from him yet this season. That said, we know the raw talent is there and he’s a nice mid-range guy to fill your roster construction. We saw Isaiah Pacheco run all over the Jets last week so Williams could very well do the same in this one. He does get some passing game work as well with at least three targets in every game this season. We have him projected for 13.14 DraftKings points giving him 2.39x his DraftKings price tag.
Click here for full Runningback projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Wide Receivers:
Justin Jefferson ($9.4k vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
It’s always good to see a high-priced player projected to be a high point per dollar option as well, meaning the floor will be there at the very least along with the massive ceiling that we’ve seen from Jefferson this season. He has at least 26.5 DraftKings points in every game this season and I would expect the Vikings to continue to throw the ball as they have all season with the run game struggling. He ranks 1st among receivers in deep targets and 3rd in overall targets. He’s expensive but he’s giving you probably the highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate. We have him projected for 24.45 DraftKings points giving him 2.6x his DraftKings price tag.
Zay Flowers ($5.5k at Pittsburgh Steelers)
Zay cooled off a bit last week but has at least 10 DraftKings points in three of his four games on the season. He leads the team with a 26.36% target share and Lamar Jackson is looking his way a ton to start the season. The Steelers are middle of the road in terms of defense so the matchup certainly doesn’t scare me, the floor is there and I think the ceiling is as well. We know Jackson can move the ball and if Zay is going to be the number one target in this offense, he’s too cheap. The Domination Station has him projected for 13.51 DraftKings points giving him 2.46x his price tag.
Michael Thomas ($4.9k at New England Patriots)
Thomas definitely isn’t a sexy option but he’s been consistent with at least 11 DraftKings points in three of his four games on the season, giving you about 50 yards per game and a bunch of targets. The Patriots are above average in their pass game defense but did lose two key players of their defense with Judon and Christian Gonzalez last week, so that likely won’t hold. He’s 2nd on the team behind Olave with a 23.57% target share and is a guy who is just too cheap. The optimizer has him projected for 12.07 DraftKings points giving him 2.46x his price tag.
Click here for full Wide Receiver projections: Domination Station Optimizer
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Tight Ends:
Kyle Pitts ($3.3k vs. Houston Texans)
It’s ugly considering his production since joining the league, but it’s so hard to ignore the skill set at this price tag in a good matchup. It comes down to whether or not we trust Desmond Ridder to get him the ball, which we probably don’t… but the price tag is hey here along with the position as a whole. He’s actually 2nd on the team with an 18.18% target share but it’s a team that is run first and isn’t going to force it to their top offensive weapons. What really excites me about Pitts is the potential, he ranks 1st in air yards, ADOT, and deep targets… if they can just connect on one of these it may be enough to get you there and the ceiling is certainly there. We have him projected for 9.48 DraftKings points giving him 2.87x his price tag.
Dallas Goedert ($4.2k at Los Angeles Rams)
We just haven’t seen the Goedert we’re used to seeing in this Philly offense, but much like Pitts, the potential is certainly there. He’s played 94.1% of snaps and is ranked 4th in deep targets. The Rams rank 20th in pass DVOA, so this Hurts-lead offense could be in for a big passing day. He’s the most expensive of these point-per-dollar options but he’s also probably the safest given the pedigree and the offense he’s in. We have him projected for 10.14 DraftKings points giving him 2.41x his DraftKings price tag.
Chig Okonkwo ($3.2k at Indianapolis Colts)
Chig is not a sexy option, don’t get me wrong, but I mentioned it with Pitts… there isn’t a guy at the position who is consistently having great weeks, so it may make sense to continue to punt the position. The Colts are middle of the road against the pass on the season. All of that said, I think I would just find the $100 for Pitts to get the upside that Chig probably doesn’t offer unless he catches multiple touchdowns. The Domination Station has him projected for 7.67 DraftKings points giving him 2.4x his price tag.
Click here for full Tight End projections: Domination Station Optimizer
Defense/Special Teams:
New York Giants $2.0k – Ahhhhhh the ole stone minimum punt play. The matchup sucks against the Dolphins who have shown they can put up points in a hurry, but this is simply a price play. If you need a punt and are spending up elsewhere how bad can they really kill you?
Pittsburgh Steelers $2.7k – The Steelers have at least 11 DraftKings points in two of their four games and can definitely get to the quarterback and have the talent to make some plays. They make for a solid mid-range option even against Lamar Jackson.
Carolina Panthers $2.2k – Can I just echo everything I said for the Giants? In all seriousness, it’s another price play if you need an absolute punt. The matchup with Detroit isn’t great from what they’ve shown they can do on offense this season. Goff can certainly make a mistake or two and they have a couple of playmakers on the defense to get you there.
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