The Milly Maker is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!
Oct 8, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (1) against the Arizona Cardinals in the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
If you ignored the Burrow and Chase projections when building your lineups on Sunday, you probably didn’t have the best day in DFS. DFS Army’s Domination Station was in love with Burrow, and as we say, sometimes you just have to let ‘Desus’ (Domination Station) take the wheel.
Burrow wasn’t the highest scoring QB on the slate, but the Burrow and Chase stack was and came at a discount than what we would’ve seen weeks prior and was a great leverage build. Let’s dissect the winning lineup that buckeye151 built to win the Week 5 Millionaire Maker contest on DraftKings.
| Week 5 | Points |
| Joe Burrow | 27.38 |
| Breece Hall | 31.4 |
| David Montgomery | 23.9 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 55.2 |
| Jordan Addison | 18.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 30.7 |
| Dallas Goedert | 28.7 |
| Devon Achane | 25.5 |
| Jets DST | 18 |
| Total | 259.18 |
Stacking
Primary Stack
Joe Burrow 27.38 FPTS + Ja’Marr Chase 55.20 FPTS
Secondary Stacks
David Montgomery 23.9 FPTS + Adam Thielen 30.7 FPTS (Game Stack)
Breece Hall 31.4 FPTS + Jets DST 18 FPTS (Team Stack)
What stands out here, first and foremost, is that we have another slate with over 250 points and a QB + 1 Stack. 4 out of 5 weeks we have a winning QB + 1 Stack and only once was there a bring back. I’d argue that this lineup could’ve easily had Marquise Brown and won the Milly Maker but it also would’ve scored 2 less points so not only was it not necessary, but it wasn’t as effective.
This lineup had all the secondary stacks, too, with David Montgomery and Thielen combining for a game stack that totaled 54.6 points and Breece Hall and the Jets totaling almost 50 points in a team stack.
Total Stacking FPTS: 186 FPTS
Total Stacking Ownership: 126%
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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 5 | Ownership |
| Joe Burrow | 6.18% |
| Breece Hall | 31.18% |
| David Montgomery | 44.61% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 19.96% |
| Jordan Addison | 4.32% |
| Adam Thielen | 15.81% |
| Dallas Goedert | 5.62% |
| Devon Achane | 31.15% |
| Jets DST | 8.46% |
| Total | 167.29% |
When you first look at that total, the chalk smash is obvious. Hall, Montgomery, Achane, and Chase were all at or above 20% Ownership. However, I think it’s important to illustrate here is that you can still have a chalky lineup that is differentiated by having a build that others aren’t going to replicate. This lineup ate a lot of chalk but played a contrarian Burrow stack. Furthermore, how many lineups played a 4% Addison AND 5% Goedert. Probably not many, you add in the Burrow stack and this lineup was unique. Nonetheless, we saw multiple times in 2022 when chalk smashed and overall ownership was between 150-180%.
Top Leverage Plays
Joe Burrow at 6%
Joe Burrow hadn’t been right due to his calf injury and that was why most of the field didn’t want to play him. The matchup was superb but Burrow was hurt and the Cardinals were much better than we thought they’d be. Well, you can’t play scared in this game and this lineup won the game’s biggest prize by not doing so. Burrow wasn’t the top leverage play on the slate, but the stack was considering Chase went Nuclear and Burrow was only 6% owned to pair with 19.96% Chase.
Dallas Goedert at 5%
17% of the field was on Kelce, 18% was on Laporta, 17% was on Ertz. The answer was $4200 Goedert at 5% ownership and direct leverage off of Ertz in that same game. Goedert was the top scoring tight end on the slate.
Jordan Addison at 4%
When you have a really chalky build, hitting on a 4% $5300 player as direct leverage off of Jefferson chalk is the way to get different. It wasn’t a high score, but it was enough.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 5 | Pricing | FPTS per Dollar |
| Joe Burrow | $6,200 | 4.41X |
| Breece Hall | $5,400 | 5.81X |
| David Montgomery | $6,600 | 3.62X |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $7,900 | 6.98X |
| Jordan Addison | $5,300 | 3.47X |
| Adam Thielen | $5,100 | 6.01X |
| Dallas Goedert | $4,200 | 6.83X |
| Devon Achane | $6,100 | 4.18X |
| Jets DST | $3,100 | 5.80X |
| Total | $49,900 | 5.19X |
This was the first time this season when the winning build didn’t have a player above $8,000 and it probably won’t be the last. Geek talks a lot about this on his shows – to win a tournament of this size, you need players to average 4-5X just to keep pace for a tournament winning score. Meaning, a $9,000 salary player needs at minimum 36 points to be on track for a GPP winning score. While achievable, it’s much more difficult to get there when you have players above 9K – they need a ceiling performance to do so. Part of the reason why this lineup smashed was because Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase had dropped enough in price that they could easily be in the nuts with a vintage performance at their discounted price. That’s exactly what happened.
This lineup had 3 players produce over 6x their salary to exceed the magic number of 1-2 players producing over 6X their salary to win the Milly Maker.
Also for the 5th week in a row, we had a winning Milly Maker build not use all $50,000 of salary.
Ceiling
Scoring is back! After lower scores in 2021 and 2022, it looks like we’re back to that 250-point target to win large field GPP’S like the Milly Maker. (So far)
This week’s winning total of 259 points, brought the seasonal average winning score to 252 points. In fact, the past three weeks have produced an averaging winning score of 269 points.
Yes the sample size is still small, so we won’t get too carried away, but the signs are encouraging as high-powered offenses like Miami’s continue to produce high scores for winning Milly Maker builds.
Be sure to Subscribe to DFS Army’s Youtube Channel so you never miss any DFS Content, including The Week in Review where I review the entire slate including the MME Strategy of how DFS Pros attack the Milly Maker.
- [embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvJoedY7gPY[/embedyt]
If you want the most in depth look at what it takes to win the Milly Maker, then purchase Adam Burns’ book where he reveals the secrets to winning the Million Dollar game! Get it HERE!
