Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/27:
Oct 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts after a play in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Den -4.5
We kick off this big slate with the defending champs heading into Memphis. The guys we’re used to getting it done for the Nuggets were the guys that got it done in the opener and are going to look good again in this one. The obvious is Nikola Jokic who dropped 70 DraftKings points and didn’t skip a beat from last season. He got a huge price jump which was to be expected after that $10k price tag on Tuesday, but if we can find the value for him here, he’s going to look good. Jamal Murray was really the only starter who didn’t outperform their price tag but will be a solid mid-to-high-range option in this one. I have a feeling Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are going to be similar options all season as long as their in this price range. Porter Jr. probably brings the higher ceiling but Gordon brings the better floor. Then we can round the team out with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who will see good minutes and makes sense as a lineup filler if he can knock down those shots, the minutes will be there. From Memphis, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. were both core plays for me in their opener, Bane was great, Jackson not so much. He got into foul trouble which is always the biggest worry with him especially against a guy like Jokic. Bane had a 27.7% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute with Morant, Adams, and Clarke off of the court last season while Jaren Jackson was a big beneficiary with a 30.8% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute. Marcus Smart was fine and will be a lineup filler type of guy again in this one. Ziaire Williams got the start but didn’t do a whole lot in 29 minutes. Then Xavier Tillman will continue to start at the five and had a big double-double in the opener, he’ll have his hands full with Jokic in this one but is a solid option to round out the team.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr.
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: Ziaire Williams
GPP Sleeper: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ziaire Williams
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Cha -4.0
Starting with the Pistons, I wasn’t big on Cade Cunningham coming into his first game off of the injury last year, but he played 36 minutes and had a massive game. It’s pretty clear they took the kid gloves off and is going to be someone to roster moving forward. Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart ran the frontcourt and had huge games as well, it looks like it’ll be their frontcourt moving forward, and get a great matchup with this Hornets team in this one. Jaden Ivey really struggled and got into quick foul trouble playing just 17 minutes, I expect that to come up but it’s clear he’s going to have to fight for usage with Cade. The only other guy I would have interest in here is Ausar Thompson, he blocked five shots in his NBA debut and is a legit NBA player. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball was on a slight minutes limit but still played 31 minutes in somewhat of a down game relative to his price tag. He’s still a guy I would have interest in with a great matchup. Mark Williams had the big game for the Hornets in their opener with a big double-double of his own, it’s a tough matchup against the stilts in Detroit, but he’s their center this season and they want to give him all the run, great point per minute guy. Terry Rozier was fine, I don’t love him but don’t hate him with Ball in there. P.J. Washington and Gordon Hayward both looked good as well and make sense as mid-range options. Lastly, rookie Brandon Miller played 25 minutes and was fine, but we were hoping for more at that price tag. I don’t have any issue going back to him in this one, he’s better than what he showed on Wednesday.
5-star play: Cade Cunningham
4-star play: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, P.J. Washington, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ausar Thompson, Brandon Miller
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -7.5
An Eastern Conference Finals rematch! Starting with the Miami Heat, there really wasn’t anything all that sexy about their win against Detroit but most of the guys did what we expect them to do. Kyle Lowry was the only starter who really had a bad game, which, are we surprised? I wouldn’t be surprised if he moves to the bench sooner rather than later. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro are the main pieces I want from this team. Maybe a sprinkle of Kevin Love at a cheap price tag, but that’s about it in a tough matchup against a good defense and a slower-paced game with just a 217 implied total. From the Celtics, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis went bananas on the Knicks and are both strong options yet again, but again, I don’t love this game environment. Jaylen Brown really struggled, as did Jrue Holiday from a fantasy production standpoint. I still like the price tag on Holiday quite a bit whereas Brown is more of a GPP option to me due to the volatility. Really not a ton I think we NEED to get to from this game on a big slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown
Deeper Value: Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Derrick White
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -2.0
Starting with the Knicks, it was a group effort to take the Celtics to the wire in the opener, the only guy that really outperformed their price tag was Immanuel Quickley in 28 minutes. That said, his minutes will likely be inconsistent this season making him more of a tournament option. Julius Randle was solid and averaged 47.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Hawks last season and I do think he’s still a bit too cheap. Jalen Brunson gets a really nice bounce-back matchup against this Hawks backcourt as opposed to the Jrue Holiday-lead backcourt that he faced in the opener, I like him in this one, but not someone we need to play. Then guys like RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are fine secondary GPP options to fill lineups. From the Hawks, holy Jalen Johnson! He played 29 minutes and looked like a great filler piece for John Collins who was traded in the offseason. He got a big price increase however which doesn’t make me feel great about chasing that production in this one. Let’s see consistent minutes a few more times before we go to that train. Saddiq Bey had a nice night himself, he’ll continue to start at the four but I wouldn’t bank on another five steals like he had against the Hornets. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray both had disappointing games in a great matchup, look for them to bounce back here, but are both priced right about where they should be. Then guys like Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and De’Andre Hunter are secondary options.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Saddiq Bey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -3.5
Starting with the Thunder, the NBA debut for Chet Holmgren didn’t go so well as he underperformed big time at his price tag. He’ll have to deal with Evan Mobley on the other end in this one, he’s probably not a guy we need to get to if he’s going to float around the 25-minute mark at this price tag. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carried over what he did last season into the opener and is going to be up there as a top spend-up option on the slate, he’s going to be matchup-proof all season long. Josh Giddey was fine, but similar to Murray from the Hawks, he’s fighting for usage and production with Gilgeous-Alexander in that backcourt. Jalen Williams was solid and looks like a fine mid-range option again in this one. The same can be said for Lu Dort to round out this team, no need to chase the Isaiah Joe game on a big slate. From the Cavs, they’ll be without Jarrett Allen again which means we see Evan Mobley move over and start at the five. Mobley had an extremely disappointing game and was chalky, so people may be gun-shy to go back to him, but I have no issue doing so. With Allen off of the court last season he had a 22% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Max Strus went bananas in the opener and played 39 minutes, the minutes will likely be there again but I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 7-13 from three again. He’s still a solid option at an increased price tag. Donovan Mitchell had a big game as well and is a solid $9k option in this one. Darius Garland struggled, but his price tag didn’t move, and looks like a nice option again in this one. Lastly, Isaac Okoro had a big game but isn’t a huge usage or point-per-minute guy in his career, so probably not someone I’m chasing here.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Evan Mobley
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Darius Garland, Max Strus
Deeper Value: Isaac Okoro
GPP Sleeper: Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Isaac Okoro, Caris LeVert
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Sas -1.5
Starting with the Rockets, they were pretty terrible on opening night against the Magic. Nobody really played well but they get a solid bounce-back spot against the Spurs in this one. The main pieces we’re looking at here are Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun, and maybe Jalen Green. My issue with Green is going to be his decrease in assist equity with VanVleet in there and may be more of a scoring-dependent guy moving forward as we saw in the opener. VanVleet and Sengun are my main focus points, they both struggled but are guys that can bounce back at nice price tags here. Sengun averaged 37.7 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Spurs last season. Jabari Smith, Dillon Brooks, and Amen Thompson are all fine options as well, but GPPs only on them if you happen to land on them. From the Spurs, the debut of Victor Wembanyama was kind of what I expected… I don’t expect to see him play huge minutes any time soon. He played 23 minutes and really came to life in the fourth quarter. That said, I can’t pay this price tag for him quite yet. Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan both looked great relative to their price tags and Sochan is going to continue to start at point guard for this team and is too cheap. Then guys like Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones were solid as well and make sense at their relative price tags. Lastly, Zach Collins is interesting as well, he’s going to see minutes with the Spurs unwilling to play Wemby a ton right away and he’s always been a nice per-minute producer.
5-star play: Jeremy Sochan
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -2.0
Starting with the Raptors, we got an idea of how they’re going to look without Fred VanVleet on the team in somewhat of an ugly win against the Timberwolves. Below is how they operated with him off of the floor last season:
- Gary Trent Jr – 25.1% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- O.G. Anunoby – 22.2% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Scottie Barnes – 20.6% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Pascal Siakam – 30.9% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Jakob Poetlt – 14.7% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
Barnes, Anunoby, and Schroder all had really nice games and are nice options yet again in this one until they get priced up a bit. Pascal Siakam struggled in the opener but gets a great bounce-back spot in this one against a bad defense. Jakob Poeltl was fine as well and will make for a decent mid-range center option while Gary Trent Jr. will be a GPP-only guy. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine was a core play for me on Wednesday and boy was he bad… he got into quick foul trouble which kept his minutes down at 25. Nobody else on the team had a great game either as they went seven deep with guys seeing at least 20 minutes. All of that said, LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are still far too cheap on DraftKings and are guys I’ll go right back to in this one. Guys like Coby White and Patrick Williams are roster fillers to round out the team.
5-star play: Scottie Barnes, O.G. Anunoby, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Jakob Poeltl, Coby White
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Patrick Williams
Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -6.0
Starting with the Nets, oh my goodness Cam Thomas… walking bucket, Cam Thomas. He played 25 minutes and dropped 36 points off the bench. He did get a sizeable price jump which probably makes him unplayable here, but if he ever earns a bigger role, watch out. The rest of this team was pretty meh in regards to their price tags. Ben Simmons had a nice night which was good to see in just 23 minutes, if we see those minutes continue to climb he could be an $8k player before we know it with his ability to rack up ancillary stats. Spencer Dinwiddie really struggled but saw just 24 minutes, probably because Thomas was cooking off the bench, he’ll be a GPP option. Mikal Bridges was solid but can be scoring-dependent at times, it’s a really nice matchup, however. Lastly, Nic Claxton will miss this game, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do with the starting lineup, my guess would be they don’t do anything crazy and just start Day’Ron Sharpe who would immediately become a nice value option. He had an 18.4% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute with Claxton off of the court last season. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic did Luka things in the opener and is going to be an elite spend-up option yet again in this one. Kyrie Irving gets a revenge game against his old squad here and is certainly a guy who carries a chip on his shoulder in games like this. I have no issue getting to him in tournaments. Dereck Lively started at the five and looked awesome, with Claxton out on the other side he’s going to look like a nice option yet again, Luka and Kyrie both love him. Then guys like Tim Hardaway and Grant Williams looked good relative to their salaries and are fine GPP options in this one.
5-star play: Day’Ron Sharpe (if starting), Luka Doncic
4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Ben Simmons, Cameron Johnson, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II
Deeper Value: Day’Ron Sharpe
GPP Sleeper: Cam Thomas, Tim Hardaway, Grant Williams
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -3.5
Starting with the Clippers, the big three of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook were all fine relative to their price tags, but nothing that was going to carry you to the top. I don’t really have an issue going back to any of them in this one, it’s a nice matchup at the very least. Ivica Zubac had the big game in 26 minutes, he’s a great point-per-minute guy and if the minutes are there he’s going to see good production. The rest of this team is very blah to me, maybe Norman Powell off of the bench, but that’s about it. It’s these main pieces and that’s about it. From the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson and John Collins had the big games for them in the opener and are going to look good again here. I really like this price range for Collins, he should be a $6k+ player until he proves not to be. Talen Horton-Tucker got a price bump, but he’s still probably too cheap with SG/SF eligibility. Lauri Markkanen had a down game but averaged 46 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Clippers last season, so this looks like a nice bounce-back spot for him. Lastly, Walker Kessler struggled big time but I like the matchup for him as well, he’s far too cheap for the production we saw from him last season. He ended last season in the $7k range which is far from where he is right now.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Walker Kessler
4-star play: Ivica Zubac, Lauri Markkanen, Talen Horton-Tucker, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Russell Westbrook, Kelly Olynyk
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -2.5
Talk about a late-night hammer, we’ve got a 239.5 total! Starting with the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Draymond Green in this one, so we’ll see the same starting five for them in this one. Chris Paul got a much-needed price bump but is probably still too cheap in a fast-paced game, he’ll look great again here. Steph Curry had a down game but played the Kings plenty last season and excelled in those matchups, love him as a spend-up option in this one. Klay Thompson did what we kind of expected he would do while Kevon Looney had a down game. Looney performed really well against the Kings last season with 32.9 DraftKings points per game in 11 games. Sabonis isn’t a great defender, so I like him to bounce back here. We saw Moses Moody with a nice game off of the bench, but I’m not sure we can chase that on a big slate. Then we get to the dud of the slate on Tuesday, Andrew Wiggins… he’s still too cheap and people won’t want to play him after that one, I think we go right back to the well. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox struggled in the opener but I love him in these fast-paced, high-intensity games. Domantas Sabonis was solid even at an elevated price tag, that said, I’m not sure I can pay that tag again here on a big slate with other spend-up options. Harrison Barnes had a huge game and gets a revenge game in this one, he’s not a must here, but a solid mid-range option at the very least. The same can be said for Keegan Murray to round out this team unless you want to take a flyer on Malik Monk or Kevin Huerter.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Chris Paul, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: Moses Moody, Dario Saric
GPP Sleeper: Moses Moody, Dario Saric, Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter
Orlando Magic @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Orl -2.5
We’ll round the slate out starting with the Magic who throttled the Rockets in the opener. A lot of their main pieces didn’t see full minutes due to the blowout, so there were a lot of disappointments relative to their salaries, so I think we just start back at square one. Below is how this team operated last season:
- Markelle Fultz – 21.5% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Jalen Suggs – 20.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Franz Wagner – 23.8% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Paolo Banchero – 27.9% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Wendell Carter Jr – 21.0% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
The matchup is great against this Blazers team who are in a full rebuild. Banchero’s price tag is still a bit too high for me to love on DraftKings, he’s much more playable on FanDuel where he’s $7.3k. I do like the mid-range of this team with guys like Carter Jr., Wagner, Fultz, and Anthony. From the Blazers, Scoot Henderson had a disappointing debut but he did see 36 which is huge. He’s one of the rookies that I expect to play big minutes right away and is someone I think we can go right back to here. Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon, and Shaedon Sharpe did the heavy lifting for the backcourt and for this team. My least favorite of the group is Brogdon just due to his role and minutes, but they’re all playable. Deandre Ayton was fine but got into foul trouble early which limited his minutes, I like going right back to him in this one, I think he has a huge season. Then guys like Robert Williams and Jerami Grant are secondary options to round out the team and this slate.
5-star play: Anfernee Simons, Paolo Banchero (FanDuel)
4-star play: Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Scoot Henderson, Deandre Ayton, Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Paolo Banchero (DraftKings), Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams
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