Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/25:
Oct 13, 2023; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) reacts during the first half against the Miami Heat at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -3.0
We got the season tipped off last night with two games but we get a gauntlet of games on Wednesday night starting with the new-look Boston Celtics. They went out and added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason while losing some marque Celtics like Marcus Smart, Grant Williams, and Robert Williams. The price tag for Holiday on DraftKings is too cheap while it’s more accurate on FanDuel. There’s no reason he’s this cheap on DraftKings, he’s used to playing the role of the second/third option in an offense with Giannis and Middleton, so I don’t expect him to decrease production-wise. Jayson Tatum’s price tag is up there, but it’s not like it’s not warranted, he finished the season looking great last year and is certainly in play as a spend-up option in this one. Jaylen Brown is a fine option as well, but it feels like he’s priced right about where he should be. We’re getting a big discount on Kristaps as well, as we’re used to seeing him in the $9k’s on DraftKings, but is going to play a secondary role to these other guys that he hasn’t really had to do in the past with multiple guys that demand the ball. That said, I think he makes sense at this price tag, especially on DraftKings. Then guys like Derrick White and Al Horford are fine pieces as last-men in your lineup construction. From the Knicks, they’re roster stayed the same over the summer as we’re used to seeing from them last season. Below is how they produced last year:
- Jalen Brunson – 27.8% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Quentin Grimes – 14.9% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- RJ Barrett – 26.7% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Julius Randle – 30.2% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 10.4% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
Brunson and Randle are the big fish in this offense but it’s going to be a tough matchup against what should be a very good Boston defense. They’re all priced fairly appropriately as well, so I’m not sure there is a ton of value on this team to start the season.
5-star play: Jrue Holiday (DraftKings), Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday (FanDuel), Kristaps Porzingis, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: Payton Pritchard
GPP Sleeper: Derrick White, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Quentin Grimes, Josh Hart, Donte DiVinenzo
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -7.0
We’ll start with the Wizards who finally traded Bradley Beal in the offseason along with Kristaps Porzingis. They didn’t get back a ton of fantasy-relevant pieces, but Jordan Poole may have himself a prime-Westbrook-type season. Okay… maybe that’s a bit of a stretch, but he is going to shoot until his arms give out, they might not always go in, but on the worst team in the league, I don’t think he gives a damn. You might have some sticker shock with that price tag, but I have no issue getting to him in a nice matchup here, he’s going to have some massive games this season. Outside of him, Kyle Kuzma is the other main option who should have a big role in this offense as well without Beal and Porzingis. Guys like Daniel Gafford and Tyus Jones are fine, but on a big slate, I think we can do better. From the Pacers, they brought in Bruce Brown from the Nuggets, but otherwise have a very familiar team. Below is how they operated last season:
- Tyrese Haliburton – 25.0% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
- Bennedict Mathurin – 24.7% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Bruce Brown – Not with the team
- Obi Toppin – Not with the team
- Myles Turner – 23.0% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
I’m not sure if we’ll see Toppin in the starting lineup or if they try and go a little smaller with Buddy Hield, but regardless, both will see good minutes. The price tag that stands out to me is Myles Turner at $5.9k on DraftKings compared to his $7.8k FanDuel price, DraftKings just has this wrong and is going to be an elite option on this slate. Haliburton will obviously look good any night, especially in a matchup against a team that likely won’t play any defense. Then guys like Mathurin, Brown, and Hield are all secondary options… Toppin is certainly useable as well at the stone minimum price on DraftKings.
5-star play: Myles Turner (DraftKings), Obi Toppin (DraftKings), Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Bennedict Mathurin, Bruce Brown
Deeper Value: Obi Toppin
GPP Sleeper: Tyus Jones, Daniel Gafford, Deni Avdija, Buddy Hield
Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.5
Starting with the Hawks, they bring in pretty much the same team outside of rookie Kobe Bufkin who I wouldn’t expect to be a main option right away, so we can overlook him for now. The matchup is great and the game has a big implied total, so we should be able to find some pieces to play here, below is how the Hawks produced last season:
- Trae Young – 32.5% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
- Dejounte Murray – 24.6% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- De’Andre Hunter – 19.8% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Saddiq Bey – 16.6% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Clint Capela – 15.6% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
One main piece that is different about the starting five is the absence of John Collins who was traded to Utah. Bey is a nice player who I think will have a breakout season in the very near future, so he’s a guy I personally am a fan of, maybe not in DFS on this slate, but watch out for him. The main pieces of the offense are Young and Murray, but we’re not getting any sort of discount on them. That said, I mentioned how great the matchup is, so both make sense as spend-ups. Capela is always volatile due to the minutes and Onyeka Okongwu breathing down his neck, but is a very nice per-minute player. From the Hornets, they’ll get LaMelo Ball back who was injured for the season in February last year, they also bring in the 3rd overall pick in Brandon Miller who looked good in the preseason. Both guys are going to look good here and Miller may even be underpriced, we saw it a lot last season where it took these sites a while to get the rookies priced where they should be. Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, and Gordon Hayward make for fine secondary options as well.
5-star play: Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Onyeka Okongwu, Mark Williams
Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -4.0
Starting with the Rockets, they’re going to look a little different this season as they waived Kevin Porter Jr. for off-the-court issues and brought in Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and rookies Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. Whitmore and Thompson looked awesome in the preseason but they probably are a bit too volatile to go out and roster right away in DFS. I would expect both guys to come off of the bench and work their way into the starting rotation as the year goes on. I wouldn’t have an issue getting to VanVleet in a solid matchup, but he feels like he’s priced right about where he should be, I would expect to see more production out of him this season with more ball-handling duties than he had last season with Toronto. Jalen Green will be his running mate and is far too cheap on DraftKings and is my preferred option on this slate. He ended the season last year in the $7k’s, which is where he is on FanDuel. The same can be said for Alperen Sengun who they finally gave the keys to in the second half of the season, there’s a $1.2k price difference between DraftKings and FanDuel and he’s another guy we were used to seeing near the $7k’s. Guys like Jabari Smith and Dillon Brooks are secondary options on a big slate. From Orlando, their roster looks extremely familiar outside of the rookies they brought in with Jett Howard and Anthony Black. I don’t expect either guy to have a huge impact right away, however. Below is how this team operated last season:
- Markelle Fultz – 21.5% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Jalen Suggs – 20.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Franz Wagner – 23.8% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Paolo Banchero – 27.9% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Wendell Carter Jr – 21.0% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
The matchup is great against this Rockets team who do have help on the way with Thompson and Brooks, but I don’t think that manifests right away. Most of the Magic are priced right where they should be except for Banchero is priced with the likes of De’Aaron Fox, Jimmy Butler, and KAT for whatever reason, so he’s probably not a guy I want to get to until that comes down. It’s much better on FanDuel where they have him at $7.5k.
5-star play: Jalen Green (DraftKings), Alperen Sengun (DraftKings), Paolo Banchero (FanDuel)
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -1.0
Starting with the Cavs, they’re going to look pretty similar to last season but did bring in some ancillary pieces like Max Strus and rookie Emoni Bates. We did get some early news that they’ll be without Jarrett Allen which will throw a wrench into things right away. Darius Garland is also questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, but for the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. I would expect Evan Mobley to slide over and play center while Caris LeVert or Isaac Okoro moves into the starting lineup. Below is how this team operated with Allen off of the court last season:
- Darius Garland – 28.5% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Donovan Mitchell – 33.0% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Isaac Okoro – 11.1% usage rate; 0.55 fpm
- Max Strus – Not on the team
- Evan Mobley – 22.0% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
The only price tag that really stands out to me is Evan Mobley on DraftKings, he’s too cheap if he’s going to slide over at start at center, we’re used to seeing him closer to the mid-$7k range. From Brooklyn, they bring back the same team that they ended last season with after overhauling and trading Kyrie and Durant last year. Mikal Bridges will be the playmaker on this team but doesn’t do a ton in terms of ancillary stats and he’s priced right about where he should be. I do like the price tag on Spencer Dinwiddie, however, he’s certainly playable in this one. Then we get to Ben Simmons… who is always the best offseason player in the world in his mind, but I do think he could have himself a nice bounce-back season if he can stay healthy. That said, I need to see it before I go to him simply due to the volatility and the size of the slate. The Nets finally committed to Nic Claxton down low as well and is a guy I like in this one, it’s a tough matchup with Mobley, but he’s a great per-minute producer. Then we can round the team out with Cam Johnson as a secondary option, he looked great to end the season last year.
5-star play: Evan Mobley (DraftKings), Nic Claxton (DraftKings)
4-star play: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton (FanDuel), Cam Johnson
Deeper Value: Isaac Okoro
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Max Strus, Ben Simmons
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -9.0
Well… this game is ugly. We’ll start in Detroit where they bring back a lot of the same team as last season but will get Cade Cunningham back and bring in rookie Ausar Thompson. Thompson should immediately slide into the starting lineup and is a guy I think we can make a case for in this one, he’s going to get his opportunity. Cade is far too expensive especially in this matchup, if you want to play him, do it on FanDuel where he’s $1.5k cheaper. Jaden Ivey is a fine option as well, but don’t overreact to the price discount compared to where he ended last season, he’s going to take a production hit with Cade back in there. Then, it wouldn’t be a Pistons team if we didn’t have the merry-go-round at power forward and center. I don’t have any sort of real lean on the likes of Isaiah Stewart, Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman, or Jalen Duren… it’s a bad matchup, use it as a gauge to see rotations. From the Heat, it’s going to be the same ‘ole Heat here after they missed out on Beal and Lillard, below is how this team operated last season:
- Kyle Lowry – 17.1% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 26.1% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Josh Richardson – Not on the team
- Jimmy Butler – 26.1% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Bam Adebayo – 25.8% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
They did bring in Richardson as they lost Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, but on a big slate, that’s not enough of a needle-mover for me. Bam, Butler, and Herro will be the main pieces I want, but ultimately not a game that I’ll get much exposure to.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: James Wiseman
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Isaiah Stewart, Marvin Bagley, Jalen Duren, James Wiseman
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Min -1.0
Starting with the Wolves, they keep a very similar roster as well… a roster that seems overpriced for whatever reason. The matchup is fairly average and on a big slate I don’t think we need to force any of these pieces, that said, I won’t talk you off of getting to any of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, or Rudy Gobert if you land on them. Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson are fine roster fillers as well, but kind of a blah team to start the season in this spot at these price tags. From the Raptors, they lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason which should open up a ton of usage for the rest of this team, below is how they operated with him off of the floor last season:
- Gary Trent Jr – 25.1% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- O.G. Anunoby – 22.2% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Scottie Barnes – 20.6% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Pascal Siakam – 30.9% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Jakob Poetlt – 14.7% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
They may start Dennis Schroder at point guard and would look like a solid option as well. I don’t like the price tag on Siakam at all, but these other guys look like strong options in their price range in a decent matchup.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, Gary Trent Jr., O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Gary Trent Jr., Dennis Schroder
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -1.0
Starting with the Thunder, their roster hasn’t changed a ton but they will finally get to see Chet Holmgren in a regular season game starting tonight. He’s been impressive in the preseason and is probably too cheap depending on what sort of minutes he gets… which probably won’t be a ridiculous number as they ease him back in. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the catalyst of the team and is the highest priced on both sites for obvious reasons. He could be a dark horse for MVP in some circles, but I think he’s a great option in a great matchup. Josh Giddey is a fine option, but not someone I think that we’ll have to force on a big slate. Jalen Williams was awesome last season, he’ll probably take a slight hit with Holmgren in there in terms of rebound and points in the paint equity. Aleksej Pokusevski is also returning from injury but I would imagine they play it safe with him to start the season, so don’t expect a ton of minutes from him either. Then we can round out the team with Lu Dort as a secondary option if you happen to land on him. The Bulls return a bunch of the same pieces as well with that big three remaining intact, below is how this team operated last season:
- Coby White – 17.8% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Zach LaVine – 28.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- DeMar DeRozan – 28.5% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Patrick Williams – 16.2% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Nikola Vucevic – 22.5% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
Generally, it’s tough to decide which of the three main guys is going to have the big game on a nightly basis for this Bulls team, but they are all priced extremely nice on DraftKings with DeRozan being the highest priced at just $7.1k. They’re much more expensive on FanDuel, however. Guys like Patrick Williams and Coby White are secondary options to round out the team.
5-star play: Zach LaVine (DK), DeMar DeRozan (DK), Nikola Vucevic (DK)
4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Zach LaVine (FD), DeMar DeRozan (FD), Nikola Vucevic (FD)
Deeper Value: Isaiah Joe
GPP Sleeper: Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Coby White, Patrick Williams
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New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -1.0
Starting with the Pelicans, they’re another team that remains fairly similar outside of their rookies who likely won’t play a huge role to start the season. Below is how this team operated last season with their current starting lineup:
- CJ McCollum – 26.8% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Brandon Ingram – 31.5% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Herbert Jones – 14.9% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Zion Williamson – 29.7% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 23.7% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
Zion is actually the newest face here as he was out since the new year last season. Given that he’s been off for so long, I can’t imagine they’re going to go out and play him 35 minutes, so I’m not sure I want to run out and roster him at this price tag. Let’s wait and see how he looks and what his minutes look like. My favorite options from this team are going to be McCollum and Ingram considering their current price tags, but again, they’re priced up on FanDuel. Then guys like JoVal and Herbert Jones are secondary options if you need a lineup filler. From the Grizzlies, they brought in Marcus Smart but otherwise have a very familiar team as last season… but, to start the season they’re going to be without Ja Morant who is suspended, Steven Adams who is out for the season, and we don’t have a timeline on when Brandon Clarke will be back (sorry Upperslad). I would expect Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. to really carry the bulk with Smart providing support as well. Bane had a 27.7% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court last season while Jaren Jackson was a big beneficiary with a 30.8% usage rate and 1.36 fantasy points per minute. Those are my favorite options on the team while Smart and Xavier Tillman are fine secondary options.
5-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr., CJ McCollum
4-star play: Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Herbert Jones, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Zion Williamson, Jordan Hawkins, Luke Kennard
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -1.5
Starting with the Kings, yet another team that returns a lot of the squad they had last year. Below is how this team produced with this same starting lineup last season… they get a nice little matchup here as well:
- De’Aaron Fox – 29.9% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Kevin Huerter – 20.5% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Harrison Barnes – 17.4% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Keegan Murray – 16.0% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Domantas Sabonis – 21.7% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
This team feels like they’re appropriately priced but with an implied total of nearly 240, they’re going to certainly playable. If you’re looking for value I think you actually start with the bench with Malik Monk at $5k, but otherwise, I think Barnes is the best point-per-dollar option in the starting lineup. I won’t talk you off of either Fox or Sabons, but the Sabonis price tag is pretty high and gets the worst matchup on the team against Walker Kessler down low. From the Jazz, we talked about it with the Hawks but they went out and got John Collins and should be the starter to begin the season. Other than him, a very similar starting five that looked good considering the expectations from them last season. Jordan Clarkson and Walker Kessler are probably my favorite options from a price point in this one but I wouldn’t talk you off of Lauri Markkanen if you fall on him. Kelly Olynyk makes sense off of the bench, similar to Monk on the other side.
5-star play: None
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Kelly Olynyk, Talen Horton-Tucker, Collin Sexton
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -3.5
Starting with the Mavs, they’re going to have somewhat of a new look frontcourt as they moved on from Christian Wood and are bringing in rookie Dereck Lively II and Grant Williams to play with Dwight Powell. I would expect we see Lively be the opening night starter and makes sense at this price tag. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as Luka Doncic comes in as questionable, if he were to miss it would change the look of this team, obviously, but for the sake of this article I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays. Opposing guards destroyed the Spurs last season, but that could quickly change with Wemby now on the other side, that said, Luka and Kyrie Irving are both fine spend-up options. From the Spurs, the elephant in the room… or is he more giraffe-like? Victor Wembanyama… looked great in the preseason and is ready to produce in a big way, he’s priced all the way up to the mid-$8k range on DraftKings and $7.7k on FanDuel. I think that’s right about where he should be current state, but could easily be $10k in two weeks, so if you want to buy low now, go for it, but could be somewhat risky… as we have no idea what his minutes are going to look like. It sounds like they’re going to go with Jeremy Sochan at the point which will be interesting but should give him a production uptick for fantasy. Then guys like Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are fine secondary options as well, I think Vassell has a really nice year but may not translate as much to DFS.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Kyrie Irving, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dereck Lively II, Josh Green, Zach Collins, Malaki Branham, Victor Wembanyama
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -9.0
Then we round out the slate starting with the new-look Blazers, who traded away Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic in the offseason. I think we see a starting lineup something like Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Matisse Thybulle, Jerami Grant, and DeAndre Ayton with Malcolm Brogdon coming off of the bench. They’ll be better than I think a lot of people think they will be. I’m firmly on the Ayton bandwagon, I can see him having a massive season in the stats department, so I like getting to him in this one along with guys like Henderson and Simons who should demand a ton of usage in this offense and backcourt. Jerami Grant is a fine option, but do you really want to play Jerami Grant on a 12-game slate? Then guys like Brogdon and Shaedon Sharpe are GPP options at best. From the Clippers, it’s kind of crazy, we’re going to see all three of the “stars” on the court to start the season… I use the term star loosely for Westbrook, but below is how this team operated with Kawhi, George, and Westbrook all on the court:
- Russell Westbrook – 22.3% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Paul George – 27.3% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
- Terance Mann – not a big enough sample size
- Kawhi Leonard – 23.4% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Ivica Zubac – 14.5% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
Westbrook might actually be my favorite of these three guys when you take the price into consideration and I don’t think they care if they throw him out there for 35ish minutes. I can’t say I love the price tags on Kawhi and George, but they’re fine options in a good matchup. Then guys like Norman Powell and Zubac are secondary GPP plays to round out this massive slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: DeAndre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
Deeper Value: KJ Martin
GPP Sleeper: Shaedon Sharpe, Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant, KJ Martin, Mason Plumlee, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac
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