Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/24:
Oct 13, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) talks to guard Chris Paul (3) during the second half against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Den -4.5
We’ll tip the season off with the Lakers heading into Denver to take on the champs as 4.5-point dogs. The Lakers come into the season looking pretty familiar with their team from last year but did add guys like Christian Wood, Gabe Vincent, and Taurean Prince. I would expect Prince joins the starting lineup but isn’t a great per-minute guy and not a big usage guy in the first place and now needs to share the ball with LeBron and Davis, so I doubt he is going to be someone we want to attack. Wood will come off of the bench, I would imagine he’s in there whenever Davis isn’t, and probably has a fairly similar role of 17-22 minutes as we saw from him last season. Vincent is never a sexy option but is a solid backup when Russell is struggling. Below is how this team operated after Westbrook was shipped out of town and they revamped their team for a playoff run:
- D’Angelo Russell – 23.1% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Austin Reaves – 18.3% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Taurean Prince – 17.3% usage rate; 0.72 fpm (with the Timberwolves)
- LeBron James – 34.5% usage rate; 1.45 fpm
- Anthony Davis – 29.1% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
LeBron and Davis are the obvious guys here, but on a two-game slate, we need to find some ancillary production. I really like taking a look at Rui Hachimura, he’s a guy they gave a huge role to against the Nuggets in the postseason, averaging 33.5 minutes per game in that series and has a fair price tag in this one. I don’t love the price tag on Wood, but we know how much of a point-per-minute monster he can be. Russell is fine but only averaged 20.4 DraftKings points per game in seven games against the Nuggets. Reaves would probably be my favorite starter not named Davis/LeBron, he came on in a big way at the end of last season and should have a nice season here. Guys like Prince, Vincent, and Vanderbilt are all flyer pieces. Onto Denver, where they remain mostly the same as well outside of a few ancillary pieces like Bruce Brown and Jeff Green. Guys like Christian Braun and Justin Holiday should benefit from them gone, and maybe some Hunter Tyson as well. but I’ve got my eyes on Braun who looked great in the playoffs. If you’re starving for value I think he makes some sense here. Below is how this starting lineup operated last season:
- Jamaal Murray – 26.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 14.1% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Michael Porter Jr. – 22.7% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- Aaron Gordon – 21.0% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Nikola Jokic – 27.1% usage rate; 1.76 fpm
Jokic is the clear guy here and probably the top raw option on the slate, but you’ll certainly pay a price for him… that said, you probably won’t see him this cheap again this season. He averaged 65.5 DraftKings points per game in eight games against the Lakers last season. The other main piece is Murray who will be a top projected point guard option on the slate as well. Porter Jr. and Gordon can be volatile but flashed a huge ceiling last season. Lastly, Caldwell-Pope is a fine option on a short-slate as well, he stands on the wing for open threes, it’ll come down to whether he’s hitting them or not.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: Taurean Prince, Hunter Tyson, Justin Holiday
GPP Sleeper: Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, Christian Braun, Justin Holiday, Hunter Tyson
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Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: GSW -1.0
Starting with the new-look Suns who made many moves over the offseason. They brought in Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, and Grayson Allen among other pieces while shipping DeAndre Ayton, Chris Paul, and Landry Shamet out of town. It wouldn’t be the NBA if there weren’t some question marks, however, Beal and Devin Booker both come into the opener listed as questionable, so make sure to keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. I’ll operate under the assumption they both play, but it’s going to be tough to predict who exactly is going to have the big night among the big three of Kevin Durant, Booker, and Beal on a nightly basis. I have a feeling Durant and Booker will do the heavy lifting when it comes to usage rates while Beal is the spot-up shooter that sees the usage anytime one of those guys takes a rest. The price tag on Durant is extremely enticing of those three and the same can be said for Beal, but we need to remember he’s going to take a massive usage hit playing with these two stars. I do think Nurkic has a nice bounce-back season with the Suns, but we’re not getting any sort of discount on him to start. Then we get to the ancillary pieces with guys like Allen, Drew Eubanks, Eric Gordon, Keita Bates-Diop, and Josh Okogie. Gordon, Bates-Diop, and Okogie are probably my favorites simply due to the price tags on them, we’re seeing Allen and Eubanks priced where we normally see them but could have some value with those first two guys on a short slate. From the Warriors, we got some early news that Draymond Green will be out for this one so we should see Kevon Looney in the starting lineup and see some additional minutes. Chris Paul will get some immediate revenge as he takes over as the starting point guard for the Warriors, and his price tag is JUICYYYYY on DraftKings, while he’s priced up on FanDuel. He currently projects as the 2nd best point-per-dollar option on the slate from our lineup optimizer. We could see him come off the bench when Draymond comes back, but for now he looks like a nice option in the mid-tier. Then we have the normal trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins. Below is how these guys produced last season:
- Steph Curry – 30.9% usage rate; 1.45 fpm
- Klay Thompson – 26.4% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 21.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
We’re not really getting a price discount on any of them and are all priced right about where they should be but make for strong options on the slate. We will likely see some extended run for Jonathan Kuminga off of the bench with Green out but showed to be extremely volatile even when given the opportunity last season. Outside of him, I don’t see a ton of value flyers on this team unless you want to take a chance with a guy like Gary Payton or Dario Saric.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul (DraftKings), Steph Curry
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Chris Paul (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Okogie, Eric Gordon, Gary Payton, Dario Saric
GPP Sleeper: Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Okogie, Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen, Gary Payton, Dario Saric, Jonathan Kuminga
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