10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 8 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 7 Recap:

Draftkings:

Jared Goff – 10.36 pts | QB18 | 1.6x value

Desmond Ridder – 16.8 pts. | QB8| 3.1x value

Jaleel McLaughlin – 5.6 pts | RB31| 1.1x value

Rondale Moore – 4.6 pts | WR51 | 1.3x value 

Michael Mayer – 3.3 pts | TE23| 2.9x value 

Fanduel:

Josh Dobbs – 16.14 pts| QB9 | 2.4x value

Najee Harris – 14.3 pts | RB9| 2.3x value

Wan’Dale Robinson – 2.7 pts | WR56 | 0.5x value

Jameson Williams – 0 pts | WR| 0x value

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 14.3 pts | WR12 | 2.9x value

Our first zero! It’s taken all the way to week 8 to get it but we finally have the first zero in this column! Not that it’s something to be proud of but when you are chasing guys sometimes it happens. Jameson Williams actually had a ton of looks and saw almost 100 unrealized air yards just wasn’t able to bring anything in.

Tough week for everyone that was eating the chalk as the chalk plays smashed everywhere. JSN finally had a bit of a pop off game, but Jake Bobo cut into his production. Najee continued to get fed and had a decent day finishing in the top 10 of the RBs but wasn’t enough to get you there. And Desmond Ridder continues to just be an every single week play, missed out on a second rushing TD by fumbling (on a great tackle) at the goal line which would have smashed value for him on both sties.

Another week, another chance to take down a tournament and you KNOW I’m digging deep again with lots of teams on bye!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

CJ Stroud QB Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 4.94%

Salary: DK $6300

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. It’s a bit of a weird week this week with every game having similar totals. Chalk is coming in on the standard guys like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson but you are going to be paying a premium for them and there are plenty of cheaper options with tons of upside.

My favorite sub-elite QB this week is CJ Stroud.  Stroud has been elite in his rookie campaign so far and gets a prime matchup against the Panthers. While you might look at the secondary and think ‘This isn’t THAT great of a matchup’ the reality of this is that Stroud has been a top 5 QB when he has time in the pocket and the Panthers pressure at the lowest rate in the league. He’s going to have PLENTY of time to sling it and when he’s had that so far this year he’s absolutely smashed.

So easy to stack him here as he has two really strong options at receiver and an elite TE. Nico Collins is a bit more expensive but absolutely worth it. Tank Dell has shown massive 25+ DK point upside this year, and Jake Ferguson has been a steady TE option with a high floor at a cheap price tag all season (barring his last time out). The other option here is a near min price Noah Brown who should fill in for Robert Woods this week who is dealing with an injury.

I’m not really interested on anyone on the other side of the ball outside of Adam Thielen. He’ll be chalky but the Texans stack will be so low owned that I think you can eat it.

 

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 4.36%

Salary: DK $6900

We saw what Cousins can do on Primetime last week and I expect nothing less here even though he’s on the road in Green Bay. The Vikings have no running game, and that’s not going to change even though the Packers are one of the easiest teams to run on in the league.

Price is way to cheap and ownership way too low  given the massive upside he has. Stack him with Jordan Addison or KJ Osborn (who is due a ceiling game at some point like Addison had last week). TJ Hockenson is a decent stack piece as well given the massive PPR upside on DK but he’s pricey and will be fairly high owned, and my preferred build this week is to go cheap at TE to save me salary elsewhere.

Travis Etienne RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: DK 6.01%

Salary: DK $7200

Steelers suck. They really do. Etienne has the 5th best ceiling projection in the Domination Station yet he is projecting as the 15th highest owned. Everyone is Pollard at a similar price point, which while a good play, I can’t get on board with just based on the ownership.

He’s not getting a ton of yards on the ground, but he’s getting passing game work and scoring TD’s which is saving his production. Lawrence still dealing with an injury increases his floor in check down passes.

I get that 6 TD’s in the last 3 weeks isn’t sustainable but they are winning and I don’t expect Pederson to vary too far from what they’ve been doing especially against the lowly Steelers.

We also get a little bit of correlated leverage here with the pass catchers in this offense being fairly chalky in a prime matchup. If Etienne goes off they could have a rough day.

Darrell Henderson RB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: 0.72%

Salary: DK $4800

Pretty impressive debut for Darrell Henderson coming off the couch and balling out to the tune of 18 carries for 61 yards and a tuddy.

He’s ‘technically’ back on the practice squad but he’ll be back and the starter again this week. Royce Freeman is also getting touches but Henderson is the better back.

Obviously the matchup here against the Cowboys is not ideal, but a starting RB in one of the higher total games of the week at this price/ownership combo is a smash for me. Love the idea of pairing him with a stud RB like Kamara in my lineups and still feeling good about the rest of my lineup.

Drake London WR Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 4.6%

Salary: DK $5100

Drake London is the Falcons receiving offense. 36% target share which is unreal. Plays 2x as many snaps as any other receiver here. Tennessee is not a good pass defense and while Ridder isn’t the world’s best passer, he’s serviceable and he looks at London every single time.

Cheap WR, TD upside, has 10+ target potential in this matchup, and is projecting at under 5% owned. Checks all the GPP winner boxes for me.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Desmond Ridder QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 1.49%

Salary: FD $6700

KEEP. PLAYING. DESMOND. RIDDER.

Seriously. Both sites. Doesn’t matter. He’s not priced anywhere near his value and has GPP winning upside with his rushing ability. If he can hold on to the dang ball, or not throw direct passes to the opposing team, he could have 25+ every week.

Even though the Falcons are not good and their coach is an idiot, Ridder continues to produce solid scores and when you dig into it you see that it could be even better if he just takes care of the ball.

Play him every week. You won’t regret it.

Alvin Kamara RB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD: 10%

Salary: FD $8300

Right on the edge of the 10% threshold for this article but I’m putting him in here because this is such a smash spot against the Colts, he should be 25% owned (and he might be as the week goes on and people realize how good this spot is).

He’s probably a better DK play because of the full point PPR but he’s going to be much higher owned over there and he’s still an elite play on FD. People tend to look at guys as ‘only DK’ or ‘only FD’ plays and they rule themselves out of wins because good plays are good plays are good plays regardless of the site.

He’s going to smash, so regardless of site, get him in your lineups.

Gus Edwards RB Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: FD 3.29%

Salary: FD $6600

Edwards has taken over as the lead back in Baltimore and while he and Justice Hill played exactly the same amount of snaps last week, he tripled him up in carries and had the same amount of targets.

Essentially what you are hoping for with Edwards is that he gets two TD’s and doesn’t get vultured by Lamar. Against the Cardinals and their weak rush defense.

That sort of production is absolutely possible and if he’s doing that, Lamar is having a mediocre day, or at least a day that’s not going to get him in the nuts so you get, my favorite dfs term, Correlated Leverage! 

Jahan Dotson WR Washington Commanders

Ownership: FD 3.8%

Salary: FD $5400

Jahan Dotson’s bad luck cannot continue. I’m convinced its bad luck and not just that he’s bad. He’s dropped touchdown passes multiple times this year that would have had him have really nice weeks.

The Eagles have a weirdly bad pass defense and while adding Kevin Byard will help, I’m not sure it will make a huge difference this week.

Last year he was a big play machine and he continues to lead the Commanders in routes run. He’s going to pop off at some point, and maybe it’s here in a great matchup in a game that went for 65 total points earlier this year. In that same matchup Dotson had 10 FD points. A TD with similar production would smash.

Darren Waller TE New York Giants

Ownership: FD 2.84%

Salary: FD: $6400

Darren Waller is a top 5 TE on the year and gets to go up against the Jets who are allowing the most FD points on the year to opposing TE’s. Had 8 targets, 7 catches for 98 and a TD last week. And over his last three games he’s averaging 8.5 targets, and 75 receiving yards.

This is a smash spot for him and with all the ownership going to TJ Hockenson at a similar price point, he’s going to be way underowned for the potential production.

 

***GPP WINNING DEFENSE***

New York Giants vs. New York Jets (+3, 36.5)

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $3900

This Giants defense under Wink Martindale is GOOD. DON’T SLEEP ON THEM. 3 point dogs here on the road (but it’s really at home). Scored 14 points last week and it should have been 22 as Kayvon Thibodeaux dropped an EASY pick six.

Wilson and the Jets are decent but not good and he can easily turn the ball over 3-4 times while taking a bunch of sacks. LOVE the Giants again this week and they will likely be a staple defense for me the rest of the year.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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