10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 7 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 6 Recap:

Draftkings:

Bryce Young – 12.68 pts | QB13 | 2.4x value

Kirk Cousins – 9.88 pts. | QB16| 1.4x value

Jonathan Taylor  – 11.15 pts | RB17 | 1.7x value

David Montgomery – 4.3 pts | RB31 | Injured

Jakobi Meyers – 17.0 pts | WR12 | 2.9x value

Fanduel:

Desmond Ridder – 19.08 pts| QB4 | 2.8x value

Kendre Miller – 1.7 pts | RB100000| 0.4x value

Chris Godwin  – 12 pts | WR22 | 1.7x value

Amon Ra St. Brown – 24.4 pts | WR2 | 3.1x value

Logan Thomas – 7.7x pts | TE37 | 0.1x value

Really interesting results last week. Some absolute smashes in guys like St. Brown, Meyers, and Ridder who all found themselves in GPP winning lineups, and then some absolute duds like Logan Thomas. Overall for the week on Fanduel we hit a 1.6x and on DK at 2.1x (not includingy Monty). I’m not stoked about the overall value, but hitting 3 guys in GPP winning lineups that were all projecting lower owned, is exactly what the point of this article is.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 1.46%

Salary: DK $7100

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. In a week with a TON of low total games, and chalk clearly coming on the Chargers/Chiefs game, there’s plenty of sneaky GPP options at QB that you can use and still get pieces to that game without having a ton of total ownership.

For me this week starts with Jared Goff against the Ravens. Look, I get it’s the Ravens, but they are still dealing with a ton of injuries and are overachieiving. They’ve also played NO good offenses so their defensive prowess is a bit over blown.

Goff has thrown for 300 yards or 3 TD’s in every single game so far this year and I expect that continue here. The Lions offense is one of the best in the NFL and I can’t believe that we get Goff at this ownership on both sites, especially with David Montgomery out. They are going to be throwing the ball a ton and the weapons he has are elite. Stack Goff up with St. Brown, Laporta, or even Jameson Williams who I think is going to continue to get more involvement here. Love the upside in Goff this week, elite QB against a paper tiger defense with elite weapons. Yes please.

 

Desmond Ridder QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 3.16%

Salary: DK $5200

Back to the well with Ridder until his ownership gets to the point where you can’t play him any more. He has GPP winning upside every single week, regardless of the matchup and he showed it last week by taking those of you followed this article to the promised land.

The offense is starting to really click and it’s VERY concentrated which makes it great for GPP. We’ve basically seen Ridder only throw Drake London and Kyle Pitts and he’s throwing it a ton. 47 attempts last week. Has gone over 300 yards in each of the last two weeks. That sort of passing volume with his ability to run the ball make him a guy we need to be considering every single week in gpp.

The upside here is that no one is considering that yet. If he keeps this up we are going to see him in the conversation each week with guys like Fields as high owned QB’s who bring massive upside. We’re not there yet so we can still get him at discounted ownership and price.

Jaleel Mclaughlin RB Denver Broncos

Ownership: DK 0.63%

Salary: DK $5000

Under 1% owned for the best rb on the Broncos against the Bears?! Look, I realize that Williams is ‘starter’ but McLaughlin is the best RB in this offense and he is going to get a few more looks with Samaje Perine now out.

Elite matchup against the Packers who can’t stop anyone. Better DK play because of his pass catching ability out of the backfield. Super explosive and doesn’t need a ton of touches to smash.

Lots of good chalk because of the injuries to other RB’s this week, but I like getting a little sneaky with a guy like McLaughlin who can smash on just a few carries.

Rondale Moore WR Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: 4.35%

Salary: DK $3500

Rondale Moore has started to really find his role again in this offense and is gaining Joshua Dobbs’ trust. 7 targets last week and also had 3 carries. With the injuries they have at RB I expect those carry totals to continue to increase. The Cards are getting him carries in spots where he can explode for extra yardage too, whether it be a jet sweep or a reverse.

The Seahawks are terrible against opposing WR’s. Cunningham is a great DB but he’s on an island here. The Seahawks are giving up the 3rd most TD’s in the NFL to opposing WR’s.

4x value at this price point is absolutely viable and to be honest I look at it as a floor here for him. So cheap with tons of upside.

Michael Mayer TE Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 2.7%

Salary: DK $2700

While there’s some question marks about who is going to start at QB, I’m not sure it matters as Mayer has found some chemistry with both Hoyer/Garoppolo. Has really started to come in his own as a rookie after 6 weeks. 75 yards last week and is clearly the better option in this offense. Hooper is washed, and even Josh McDaniels know it.

If O’Connell starts for the Raiders this week, I’ll be less interested but I love the price and ownership combination here. He’s got GPP winning upside based on what he can do, but also what the rest of the lineup looks like with a cheapie like him in there.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Joshua Dobbs QB Arizona Cardinals

Ownership: FD 3.47%

Salary: FD $6600

Wrote about Rondale Moore as an intriguing GPP play on DK above, but I like his QB even more on FD. Dobbs has been better than serviceable so far for the Cardinals, putting up more than 20 FD points in 2 of his starts far this year and has rushed for over 40 yards in 3 of 5 games.

The passing game isn’t massive, but against the lowly Seahawks he has the potential to get over 300 yards for the first time this season.

I’m just making it a habit to play QB’s against the Seahawks for the rest of the year because the defense sucks, but the offense can keep them in it which forces the other QB to throw. This week it’s Dobbs and given what he’s done so far this year I’m more than happy to roster him.

Najee Harris RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: FD: 2.78%

Salary: FD $6100

Hold on, I just puked in my mouth a little bit.

Look, it’s not sexy, it’s not fun, but given the ownership/price combination here, Harris is viable on FD this week.

I think he’s washed. I don’t think he’s a good running back.

BUT. He gets a good matchup against the Rams, who would probably start me on the defense, and Matt Canada continues to give him 12-18 touches a game. If he can punch one here, he’s going to get into that range of GPP winning RB’s due to the price. I’m willing to take my chances that that happens.

Wan’Dale Robinson WR New York Giants

Ownership: FD 6.71%

Salary: FD $5600

Robinson has usurped Parris Campbell in the slot position for the Giants and has been one of both Tyrod and Danny Dimes favorite targets.

The Commanders are one of the worst defenses in the league and while I don’t think the Giants are very good, they will be in this game just due to how inept the Commanders are. Also, he led the team in targets last week. Think that will be the norm going forward even though he’s only playing around 60% of the snaps.

Robinson is super cheap on both sites, but the ownership is going to be quite a bit higher on FD so while I prefer him there because of the full PPR, he’s just a little too high owned. Good value on FD, but he will need to find the end zone here to hit value.

Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 0.4%

Salary: FD: $5600

Got into the end zone by coming back on a ball last week and making a great contested catch. It was his second game back and I think that he will continue to get more usage here and become a bigger part of the offense. He is just too talented and such a dangerous red zone target.

He has a multiple TD game incoming at some point, maybe it’s here against the Ravens. Part of DFS is identifying guys who are due breakouts and continuing to play them till they do. Too often in DFS we have a micro point of view because it’s only one week, and we would be better off occasionally to look at things from a macro POV and identify players trending in the right direction and even if they dud for two or three weeks in a row, going back because the game is coming at some point. Williams is one of those guys for me, just like Ridder was earlier this year.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: FD 5.3%

Salary: FD $4900

Has slowly but surely commanded more usage in this offense. His time has come as he now gets to go up against the lowly Cardinals in what could be a shootout between two decent offenses and two terrible defenses.

Throughout the year so far he has only been getting these dink and dunk passes from Smith, partially because they don’t trust him, but partially because he hasn’t really ran any deep routes. That changed last week and he brought in an 18 yard reception, by far his longest.

DK Metcalf is dealing with not only a rib injury, but also a hip injury and him being limited at all is a boon for JSN who is starting to get more comfortable here.

 

***GPP WINNING DEFENSE***

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders(+3, 37.5)

Ownership: DK 5.3%/FD 4.3%

Salary: DK $3000/FD $3400

Due to the awful NFL schedule, we’ve had to watch the New York Giants in primetime multiple times lately. While the games have been terrible, it has given me the opportunity to watch this defense really improve. Wink Martindale is starting to really put his stamp on this defense with their unique blitzing and we’re seeing Kayvon Thibodeaux start to pressure like crazy.

Sam Howell is good not great, and he loves to turn the ball over and take sacks, which can lead to some elite fantasy point production by the defense. Ownership will be super low here and they can put up a 20 spot easy.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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