10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 6 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 5 Recap:

Draftkings:

Zack Wilson – 22.22 pts | QB17 | 1.9x value

CJ Stroud – 14.16 pts. | QB12| 2.4x value

Derrick Henry – 14.7 pts | RB20 | 1.2x value

Jameson Williams – 2.2 pts | WR67 | 0.5x value

Robert Woods – 6 pts | WR41 | 1.2x value

Fanduel:

(points and player rankings are DK only, because FD can’t make it easily searchable)

Matthew Stafford – 16.88 pts| QB10 | 2.5x value

Breece Hall – 26.9 pts | RB2| 4.1x value

Jaylen Waddle  – 12 pts | WR13 | 1.8x value

Rashee Rice – 11.3 pts | WR16 | 2.3x value

Jonnu Smith – 7.7x pts | TE11 | 1.5x value

MUCH better this week on Fanduel with a 2.54x but a rough week on DK at 1.4x. Took some speculative shots on WR’s that didn’t pan out, but Breece HIll crushed in a smash spot and Stroud/Stafford both looked good despite not putting up monster GPP winning numbers.

Interesting looking at the milly maker winners/big GPP winners as they had some cheap guys that didn’t really smash but had good enough weeks to get there and that might be a decent strategy going forward as you look to fit in some studs.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 1.46%

Salary: DK $7100

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. In a week with lots of sort of low total games, and chalk clearly coming on guys like Matthew Stafford against the Cardinals and Joe Burrow against the Seahawks there’s plenty of sneaky GPP options at QB that you can use and still get pieces to that game without having a ton of total ownership.

For me this week starts with Kirk Cousins against the Bears. Just a smash passing spot for Cousins and while yes, Justin Jefferson is out with a hamstring injury, Cousins isn’t going to be throwing the ball any less.

I love the overs on all of Cousins props in this game. Currently projecting for around 250 yards and 1 TD, think he crushes that in this game that is projected to be fairly close. The Vikings are going to dink and dunk their way down the field until they hit a big pass to Jordan Addison for a TD.

Love the idea of Kirk +2 stack even though that’s a bit rare, but I just love KJ Osborn who should get double digit targets in this game, and think TJ Hockenson is due a monster as well even though he’s the highest priced TE on the slate.

 

Bryce Young QB Carolina Panthers

Ownership: DK 0.55%

Salary: DK $5100

Young had a nice outing last week as he looks more and more comfortable in this offense. Threw the ball 41 times and completed 25 last week and will have to do that and probably a bit more against the talented Dolphins if he wants the Panthers to keep up.

Easy to pair him with Adam Thielen, but don’t sleep on Hayden Hurst in this matchup. Love TE’s against the Dolphins and while Thielen has been the stud in terms of getting all the targets, Hurst could be a sneaky option. Annoying that a TD went to Tommy Tremble last week but could easily be Hurst and at his super cheap price he’d smash value.

Love a good cheap QB stack and makes it easy to fit in Tyreek or Jaylen Waddle on the other side of the ball.

Johnathan Taylor RB Indianapolis Colts 

Ownership: DK 1%

Salary: DK $6600

Leverage spot of the century here on Johnathan Taylor. He didn’t get paid to be the back up to Zack Freaking Moss and with Anthony Richardson out, and another week of practice under his belt, think he absolutely smashes value this week.

One percent owned?! I get the Jags have been pretty tough against the run but come on here people. This is JT we are talking about. Maybe I’m a week early and the breakout game is coming in a week or two but I don’t mind being early because the pay off could be HUGE.

David Montgomery RB Detroit Lions

Ownership: 7%

Salary: DK $7300

No problem paying up for two stud RB’s this week with all the WR value on the slate, and one of my favorite options will be David Montgomery.

He’s a stud, and Jahmyr Gibbs is hurt, so he’s going to get even more carries than he normally does. TB being OK at stopping the run is what is keeping his ownership below 10% right now, but they aren’t what they have been in the past and we’ve seen running backs go bonkers on them already this year (Alvin Kamara in week 4, D’Andre Swift in week 3)

Might be a better play on FD with the TD equity he has but I’m willing to fire him up on both sites.

Jakobi Meyers WR Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 6.7%

Salary: DK $5800

REVENGE GAME!!! Not only for Meyers, but Jimmy G too! Can’t believe the Pats let him walk if I’m being honest, but good for him.

Pats pass D is good and Jimmy G isn’t some stud but the volume for Meyers means that he can easily get there, especially on DK with the full point PPR and he’s got multiple TD upside.

With Adams still nursing a shoulder injury, and the Pats likely keying on him to try and stop him, I love the upside that Meyers brings here.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Desmond Ridder QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 0.6%

Salary: FD $6800

Washington’s defense is trash. Ridder isn’t good, but he can up a GPP winning score in the right environment.

Looked really good down the stretch against the Texans last week and threw for over 300 yards. This offense that has had potential all year is finally starting to click.

Pair him with Drake London or Kyle Pitts (unfortunately Jonnu Smith is dinged up, though he did practice fully Thursday) or even Bijan which is a weird stack, but basically confirms you get all the touchdowns in a game where the Falcons are implied for 22.5 points.

At some point we are going to get a designed Ridder run near the end zone and when it does, if he just has an average game everywhere else, he will crush.

Kendre Miller RB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: FD: 0.4%

Salary: FD $4700

This is a super gut feeling punt, but I think we get a decent run of Kendre Miller in this game against the Texans.

Last week he had 12 carries for 37 and 4 catches for 53 and while lots came in the second half of a blowout against the Pats he was definitely still involved spelling Kamara in the first and has a role in this offense.

Look, every good RB is going to be over 10% owned this week and I will likely end up with lots of my lineups having 3 RBs all over 10% owned, if you are looking to make a punt at the position, I don’t hate guys like Miller (or Cam Akers) or any other backup that has a decent role in the offense.

Chris Godwin WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD 5%

Salary: FD $6300

Coming off the bye there is no guarantee that Evans plays this week, and if so he will likely be limited. He’s dealing with a hamstring injury which is never good. That being said it’s a boon for Godwin who saw 11 targets in Evans’ absence against the Saints (he played the 1st Quarter and then went out with the injury in the second).

This is an offense that hucks the ball with Mayfield averaging over 30 attempts a game and with Evans potentially out or limited we could see another double digit target game for Godwin here.

The Lions are not a great pass defense, though they have a very solid rush and can force Mayfield to get the ball quickly (which actually could also benefit Godwin even if Evans is a full go).

Might be a better DK play with the PPR but think he scores here and can hit value at this price point/ownership combination on FD this week.

Amon Ra St. Brown WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: FD 5%

Salary: FD: $7800

Welcome back to our weekly, ‘What are we doing here?!’ candidate in Amon Ra St. Brown. Coming of an abdomen injury he’s been a full go in practice and while the TB pass defense is decent they are not all world like they used to be and regardless, Sun Good is matchup proof.

This is a high powered offense that throws the ball a ton and with Amon Ra coming back they will only improve. Love him this week in all formats and on all sites at the depressed ownership.

Logan Thomas TE Washington Commanders

Ownership: FD 5%

Salary: FD $5400

As I said above, think this is a game that has a sneaky potential to go off. Thomas brought in a ridiculous 11 targets against the Bears last week and the Falcons funnel points to opposing TE’s.

Think he’s one of the best TE’s on the slate and the price ownership/combination is fantastic for GPP. Love the upside here even if the floor is pretty low.

 

***GPP WINNING DEFENSE***

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets(-7, 41)

Ownership: DK 9%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $3800/FD $4900

I hate paying up for defense. I despise it. I just can’t get away from this Eagles defense against the Jets though. This is a smash spot and while Wilson has looked better, he’s still Zach Wilson and the Eagles could put up 20+ points here. Have to just eat whatever chalk they end up I think.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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