10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 5 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 4 Recap:

Draftkings:

Russell Wilson – 22.22 pts | QB10 | 3.8x value

Justin Fields – 32.90 pts. | QB2| 5x value

James Cook- 14.7 pts | RB10 | 2.3x value

Jaylen Warren – 10.60 pts | RB13 | 2.3x value

Michael Pittman Jr. – 4.5 pts | WR59 | 0.7x value

Fanduel:

(points and player rankings are DK only, because FD can’t make it easily searchable)

Brock Purdy – 21.32 pts| QB11 | 3.0x value

Derrick Henry- 23.88 pts | RB5| 3.0x value

Adam Thielen – 11.7 pts | WR18 | 1.7x value

DeVonta Smith – 11.3 pts | WR19 | 1.4x value

Jake Ferguson – 11.2 pts | TE5 | 2.2x value

MUCH better this week. 2.8x value on Draftkings and 2.2x on FD. Some of the guys on Fanduel like Henry/Thielen/Ferguson were all higher on their position rankings on DK as well.

One thing I noticed this week is that the ownership on a few guys, in particular Thielen, really climbed as the week went on which is a bit intriguing. Obviously my process is leading me to guys that others are finding their way to as well, and that’s OK.

The other big news about last week is we saw guys who crushed in 2022, and were underperforming in 2023, get back on track. Derrick Henry had a monster and Justin Fields got back to the QB2 on the week. Smash week for both of them and a good reminder that good football players are good football players and their results will return to the mean at some point.

Looking forward to finding those guys who are in great bounce back spots this week!

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Zack Wilson QB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 1.03%

Salary: DK $4900

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. In a week with lots of sort of low total games, and chalk clearly coming on games like Vikings/Chiefs and the Eagles, there’s plenty of sneaky GPP options at QB that you can use and still get pieces to that game without having a ton of total ownership.

Now I get it, you are going to have plug your nose here to play Wilson, but hear me out first.

1. He’s $4900. That’s wildly cheap on DK. He can easily 4x his salary here.
2. He looked legitimately good against the Chiefs last week. Yes there was still some issues, but he was much improved, and honestly he looked decent in the second half against the Pats too.
3. The Junior High Football team in your town may have a better secondary than the Broncos. They are just getting destroyed every week.
4. You can stack him with Garrett Wilson who is ELITE and still have an average of $5,586 left over for the remaining spots on your roster. Do that with Tua/Hill and you have a full 1k less per spot.

It makes sense. It’s ugly. It’s the Jets. It’s gross. I have to plug my nose, but I really think it works this week and he gives you a legitimate chance in GPP.

 

CJ Stroud QB Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 3.6%

Salary: DK $6000

Stroud looks like the best QB in the draft, and I’m including Anthony Richardson here. He’s bombing it out there every single game and his depth of target is massive at around 8 yards.

Gets the Falcons who have been pretty poor against the pass all season long and are returning to the US after playing London last week.

Has an array of excellent pass catchers to throw to. My preference is to pair with Robert Woods who I think has the best matchup this week, but Tank Dell and Nico Collins are elite as well.

Don’t hate a run it back with Bijan Robinson, as my preferred build on DK this week has two stud RB’s in it and if he’s going to be having a big game, it’s likely that Robinson is going bonkers running over the Texans on the other side.

Just too cheap/underowned given the potential upside of a 30 burger.

Derrick Henry RB Tennessee Titans 

Ownership: DK 8.8%

Salary: DK $7500

Back to the well, this time on Draftkings for Derrick Henry. He’s a monster and gets to go up against the Colts in a smash spot.

Tyjae Sharp is still annoyingly there but we finally saw Henry back to his dominant self last week. 22 carries and even had a target. Also THREW a TD pass which isn’t so rare in this offense.

There aren’t many pay up options on this slate and with Bijan sucking up all the ownership, I don’t mind going to Henry. My preferred build on DK is with cheapie WR’s and stud RB’s.

Jameson Williams WR Detroit Lions

Ownership: 0.43%

Salary: DK $4000

FINE…I’LL BITE. Williams is a stud and returns this week from his gambling suspension so it’s only right that we gamble on him to smash here…right?! RIGHT?!

In all seriousness I think this is a great spot and he’s going to slot right in to a heavy workload. Dan Campbell has said he’ll have a ‘limited role’ and while I usually trust Campbell I’m not sure how you keep a guy with this sort of talent on the bench, especially with Amon Ra St. Brown not practicing due to an abdomen injury and Josh Reynolds being limited.

No props yet because the books are scared to put them out depending on what the injury situation ends up being, but I’m all over Williams upside here.

Robert Woods WR Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 6.7%

Salary: DK $4000

Nico Collins, 10% owned.

Tank Dell, 13% owned.

Robert Woods, 6% owned.

This offense is throwing the ball a ton and they get to go up against a Falcons secondary that is not very good. Not only are they not very good, but they play a ton of man coverage, which suits Robert Woods, and he’s doubling up Tank Dell in targets in man coverage.

Collins is the clear WR1 here, but when it comes to pts/$ and GPP winning upside, I think Woods is the guy I want on my roster at this price point. He’s knocking on the door of a big game and this is the week for it to happen.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Matthew Stafford QB Los Angeles Rams

Ownership: FD 5.8%

Salary: FD $6800

Stafford can huck it and this defense looked pretty poor against the Washington Commanders last week.

Game is projected to be a shoot out with a total of 49.5 and only a 4 point spread. The Rams will be in this game, and while we’ve seen the Kyren Williams show the last few weeks, I think it will be the passing game and the arm of Stafford that keep them in it.

Breece Hall RB New York Jets

Ownership: FD: 8.2%

Salary: FD $6500

I’m pretty high on Zack Wilson on DK at his price point, but I am very intrigued by Breece Hall on both sites as well.

Rumors are that he will NOT be on a snap count any more (who knew that he was?!) and if what we’ve seen so far through 4 weeks with Dalvin Cook it’s clear that he’s dust so the competition is pretty mediocre.

We’ve seen him be incredibly explosive this season and if he really is going to get the full load here, against the Broncos who couldn’t stop my 6 year old between the tackles, Hall could potentially have a smash game. AND if for some reason Wilson gets chalkier as the week goes on because of price/sentiment, he’s a fantastic pivot off the chalk.

Jaylen Waddle WR Miami Dolphins

Ownership: FD 10%

Salary: FD $6800

Right at 10% ownership here so he’s a a bit of a stretch for the 10 under 10 article but I just like him so much this week on FD that I can’t not include him.

Weirdly priced HIGHER on DK than FD. That NEVER happens. Yes this is a smash spot for Hill who has been crushing but we are going to get a Waddle game at some point, AND the Giants suck. Like bad.

Not a huge red zone threat, but he has massive GPP potential because he’s a deep threat not named Tyreek Hill who will draw extra attention every week. At some point that will pay off for Waddle.

Fully healthy now coming off a concussion and should be good to in what could potentially be a smash spot. Hill might be the highest owned player on the slate so this is some intriguing correlated leverage.

Rashee Rice WR Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: FD 6.85%

Salary: FD: $5000

Getting a ton of targets when he’s on the field, and I expect his on field presence to continue to increase as we go through the season. Skyy Moore is decent but MVS is dust and I don’t expect that the Chiefs think that Justin Watson is the answer.

12 targets in the last two games, second in targets to Kelce last week against the Jets. He’s clearly involved despite only playing around 50% of the snaps at this point.

This is a sneaky way to stack Mahomes or as run back with a Cousins stack. The MN/KC game is the game of the week and I want as much access to it as possible.

Jonnu Smith TE Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: FD 1.24%

Salary: FD $5000

I hate playing a guy in a ‘timeshare’ but Smith is for real the best TE in this offense. Out targeted Pitts again last week. Ridder isn’t good enough to make Pitts good. He has just enough of an arm to make Smith decent.

There aren’t many ‘great’ TE options on the slate, so for me I don’t mind just throwing random darts on TE’s and hope for some TD equity from a cheapie and I think Jonnu brings that.

 

***GPP WINNING DEFENSE***

Tennesse Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43.5)

Ownership: DK 9%/FD 9%

Salary: DK $2400/FD $3500

Not super concerned about increased ownership here because the Titans are in a great spot and SUPER cheap. We need all the salary savings we can get this week and the cheapest viable defense is always a great way to do that.

Titans go up against the Colts who, while they have been scoring, can turn the ball over a ton with rookie Anthony Richardson at the helm.

Stack em up with DHenry who is in a smash spot and watch yourself climb the leaderboard!

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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