NFL DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections for Week 1 | DraftKings

Kickstart your excitement for Week 1 of the NFL DFS main slate as we delve deep into the best value plays across every position, all thanks to our trusty NFL Optimizer, aka The Domination Station. I’m Mike, better known as @MadnessDFS on Twitter (X). Don’t forget to follow me for real-time updates and insights, and keep an eye out for my comprehensive DFS content throughout the NFL season, extending seamlessly into the NBA season as well, exclusively here at DFS Army.

Let’s dive right in and set the stage for an exhilarating week ahead!

NFL Quarterbacks:

Sam Howell ($4.9k vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Howell comes in as our top point-per-dollar quarterback option on the week against the blatantly tanking Cardinals. Howell looked more than competent in the preseason as he heads into his first season as an NFL starting quarterback. He had an excellent 122.0 QBR averaging 132.5 passing yards per game and brings some nice rushing upside to the table at a dirt-cheap price tag. We saw this become extremely prevalent in his final season at UNC where he rushed for 828 yards accompanied by 11 touchdowns. His legs will give him an excellent floor at the very least in DraftKings cash games while the matchup with Arizona gives him some sneaky upside. The Cardinals had the second-worst team defense last season and haven’t gotten any better over the offseason. He has no shortage of weapons either with guys like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Antonio Gibson, and Curtis Samuel who all make for solid stacking options.

Jordan Love ($5.0k at Chicago Bears)

Speaking of quarterbacks set to make their team debuts as a full season starter, look no further than Jordan Love for $100 more than Sam Howell. He gets a similarly great matchup against the Chicago Bears who had the worst team defense in the league last season. Much like Howell, Love looked the part in the preseason with a 109.8 QBR and establishing a very nice connection in camp with guys like Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and rookie Luke Musgrave. Love won’t bring as much safety on the ground but is mobile enough to be dangerous out of the pocket which I expect to be a big part of his game as the Packers run a lot of crossing routes and pre-snap movement, something that Rodgers didn’t love in the LaFluer system. I like stacking him with those main guys I touched on, but do think Aaron Jones is a stacking piece as well, a lot of times the running back in offenses gets overlooked as a stacking option, but Jones is one of the better pass-catching running backs in the league.

Deshaun Watson ($6.0k vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

There’s no question about it, Watson did not look good in his first season as the Browns starting quarterback, but hopefully was able to shake off some rust after missing a good deal of time since his Texans days. Of these top 3 point-per-dollar options, this game has the highest implied total at 47.5 and I would expect the Browns will need to throw the ball to keep up with the Bengals’ high-powered offense. He played one game against the Bengals last season and dropped 17.34 DraftKings points which is just under where we have him projected in week 1. Watson looked pretty solid in the preseason with a 112.3 QBR and is another guy that should bring a nice 3-5 point rushing floor. His main stacking options are Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore who came over from the Jets. I don’t necessarily hate throwing Nick Chubb in a stack with him, but he’s not your prototypical high-target running back option, so I’ll probably stick to the receiving options.

Running Backs:

Aaron Jones ($6.3k at Chicago Bears)

As I touched on with Jordan Love above, Jones benefits a good deal from passing game upside and I don’t expect that to change a whole lot with his new quarterback. Jones performed really nicely against the Bears last season averaging 22.5 DraftKings points per game with a lot of that production coming in week two where he had 132 rushing yards, 38 receiving yards, and 2 total touchdowns. The Bears allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league last season and didn’t make any sizeable upgrades to their defense to improve that this season. The price tag on Jones just seems too low here as we’re used to seeing him in the $7k range as we did all last season.

Rachaad White ($5.5k at Minnesota Vikings)

White should take over as the lead back in this new-look Tampa Bay offense that no longer has Leonard Fournette and Tom Brady for what it’s worth. White flashed some really nice upside last season, especially in the receiving game and certainly passed the eye test. I would expect to see 20+ touches from him pretty regularly with the lack of competition in the backfield with him. This game has a pretty nice implied total at 45.5 with the Bucs being +6 underdogs, so those dump-offs could certainly pay off as the Bucs look to pass to stay in the game. The Vikings were a middle-of-the-road run defense last season but did lose some key run-stoppers like Dalvin Tomlinson, Eric Kendricks, and Za’Darius Smith. He’s another guy in the mid-range who could eclipse that 20 fantasy point mark in week 1 and looks like a great value option.

Joe Mixon ($6.8k at Cleveland Browns)

Mixon definitely had his struggles last season behind a below-average offensive line and had some production vultured by Samaje Perine who is no longer with the team. His main competition for touches will be Chase Brown who I doubt Cincinnati will have as much immediate trust in as they did Perine. Mixon averaged 12.75 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Browns last season but I do expect a nice bounce-back season from him. Joe Burrow suffered that ankle injury early in camp which may hinder his mobility especially early in the season which could lead to less scrambling and more dump-offs to Mixon and the tight ends. The Bengals were a top 7 team in running back targets last season at 22.2% as well which puts Mixon in a great spot to get some receiving upside. The Browns were a bottom 10 rush defense last season and we know this Bengals offense can put up points, so he’s going to be in a good position to produce early and often at a fair price tag.

NFL Wide Receivers:

Marvin Mims Jr. ($3.0k vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Mims comes in at the stone minimum price in his NFL debut and could immediately slide into the WR2 in this offense with Jerry Jeudy banged up and Tim Patrick out. Jeudy went down with a hamstring injury in camp that puts his availability “in doubt” for week 1. Expect Mims to line up across from Courtland Sutton and be someone that Russell Wilson looks to early and often against a Raiders defense that was top-5 in total yards allowed last season. Don’t get me wrong, this Broncos offense was pretty terrible last season and Wilson looked washed up, but with Sean Payton in town and what should be a more balanced attack with Javonte Williams back, Mims doesn’t need to do a ton to pay off this salary and provide some relief to your roster construction.

Chris Godwin ($5.9k at Minnesota Vikings)

Godwin is a PPR machine and was a top-10 targeted player last season. Obviously, that was with Tom Brady at quarterback and not Baker Mayfield, but I would still expect the targets to be there with Godwin across from the downfield threat Mike Evans. He’s another guy that seems underpriced compared to where we’re used to seeing him in that mid-$6k range last season. The quarterback change has something to do with that, but similar to Rachaad White above, they’re going to need to throw the ball to keep up with the Vikings who didn’t show a ton of competence in the secondary last season.

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4.8k vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

This will be JuJu’s first game with his new team after coming over from the Chiefs in the offseason. It’s obviously a downgrade going from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones, but he should slot in as a top go-to option for Jones. The big thing in this matchup will be the Pats need to throw the ball against a high-scoring Eagles team that will certainly score early and often which may take the option of slowing the game down out of Belichick’s hand. JuJu looked pretty good against this Chiefs defense in the Super Bowl where he caught 7 of his 9 targets on his way to 12.3 DraftKings points. He ranked 11th in the league in yards after catch last season, so he still has plenty of juice left in the tank. He probably doesn’t have 30-point upside, but at this price tag, he makes plenty of sense as a lower-range option.

Tight Ends:

Kyle Pitts ($4.5k vs. Carolina Panthers)

Here we go again… we know Pitts is physically a freak but his production has been hindered by the Atlanta quarterback situation and issues getting him the ball. That said, he’s still a massive target in the offense even on limited opportunity. Among tight-ends he was ranked first in target rate at 34.3% and had a 27.3% target share in the offense, not to mention he was also first in air yards share at 32.9%. There’s no question the potential is there, but the Falcons need more production from their quarterback and ultimately need to throw the ball more to get guys like Pitts and Drake London involved. A lot of this is baked into the price tag which makes him look like a nice value option. In two games against the Panthers last season he had a combined 17 targets 108 yards and a touchdown. I think you can do far worse than taking a flyer on Pitts in this price range.

Evan Engram ($4.7k at Indianapolis Colts)

I have really high hopes for this Jaguars offense and think Trevor Lawrence is going to lead a lot of his pass-catchers to huge seasons, Evan Engram not excluded. Engram averaged 10.3 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Colts last season and saw 14 targets combined in those games. He flashed some serious upside in the second half of the season as this offense really took the next step. He held an 18.6% target share in the offense last season and is a red-zone threat as well. If I’m between him and Pitts in this range I would likely lean toward Engram for the safety in cash games and take the upside with Pitts in GPPs or those big tournaments.

Hayden Hurst ($3.0k at Atlanta Falcons)

Hurst made his way over from Cincinnati last season and should slot in as the primary pass-catching tight-end for this new-look Carolina Panthers offense. Ultimately he’s going to look like a solid value option simply due to the price tag. If he catches a touchdown he probably gets us there and we’ve seen him flash some upside before. If you want to trust the rookie in Bryce Young to get him the ball right off the bat as a form of a safety blanket, I think he makes sense. He averaged about five targets per game last season in a crowded Bengals offense, if we say that’s his floor in this one you can do much worse than punting with him at $3k.

Defense/Special Teams:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.2k – Probably as low as I’m willing to go, although I still don’t love it against a Vikings team at home that we know can put up points.

Washington Commanders $2.8k – Great matchup here for Washington against the Cardinals who will be without Kyler Murray and are in full tank mode. It sounds like they’re going to roll with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback and we know Washington’s ability to get pressure, I think they look great here.

Green Bay Packers $2.8k – This Packers defense is loaded with talent and if they can force Justin Fields into making some mistakes they could be in for a big day. They also have a dangerous return game giving them a little extra boost.

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