In this Week 1 NFL DFS analysis, we’re focusing on a pivotal concept: Geek’s “Core Four.” These four core picks represent Ffootballgeek’s absolute favorite plays across all game formats on the main slate, regardless of price or projected roster percentages. Anticipate these selections to play a central role in his cash lineup and serve as a cornerstone of his GPP core strategies (although they may not all align within a single GPP lineup).
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Geek’s Core Picks – Week 1
Jalen Hurts ($7800 DK/$9000 FD) – Hurts is always in play. He averaged 26.9 DK points per game last season which is 3.3x his current DK salary. The floor is high and the ceiling is elite. Eagles are 3.5 point road favorites in this spot. There is a scenario where this game plays out very competitively. In that situation, Hurts could smash. Hurts is in the mix for me in all formats this week. Stacking him up with 1 of his pass catchers: Brown, Smith or Goedert.
Marvin Mims Jr ($3000 DK/$4700 FD) – Likely to fill in as the WR2 for Denver with Jeudy on the shelf. K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick are both out as well leaving it likely that Mims sees 5+ targets in this game as the WR2 for dirt cheap on Draftkings.
Chris Godwin ($5900 DK/$6800 FD) – Vikings defense is one to target regardless of the opponent. In this case, Godwin has minimal competition for targets. Evans is banged up. Even with Baker Mayfield at QB, Godwin should see enough sheer volume to make value. The matchup is too good to ignore.
Washington Commanders Defense ($2800 DK/$4900 FD) – Top play on the slate for me in terms of the price and upside. Arizona projects to be one of the worst offenses in the league. They should be the chalkiest Defense on the slate
For more specific Week 1 plays, our NFL cheatsheets are not just a simple grid. Our sheets cover every relevant play with our experts’ opinions regarding cash games, game theory, strategic usage, and the ability to help you produce huge fantasy scores. Simply click the example below to unlock every slate you want to play!
For every pick, every play, and the strategic reasoning behind them… our NFL Cheatsheets cover every slate from Classic to Showdown formats. Put our fantasy football experts in your corner as you start building lineups capable of winning the Milly Makers!
Geek’s Value Stacks – Week 1
Trevor Lawrence/Calvin Ridley/Evan Engram/Christian Kirk – TLaw is poised for a breakout season, but this might not be the game. It’s a longshot stack for tourneys only! However, Lawrence has weapons and they aren’t expensive. Ridley could get peppered with targets, Kirk has been a red zone weapon in the past, Engram ranks potentially well for the price on a volatile TE slate. To be in “nut consideration,” a QB probably needs 3 TDs and 300+ yards passing (if he doesn’t run much) and such an outing would likely require TWO of these pass catchers with Lawrence. Even Zay Jones makes sense here. The game just needs to be competitive.
Justin Jefferson/Rachaad White – Correlations/stacks come in different shapes. Using a WR with an opposing RB carries positive correlation and often goes overlooked. Winning tourneys is more about your second stack than your primary stack in 2023 anyway…making this sneaky considering White’s workload and price tag. JJ has slate-smashing upside, we all know that. Paired with a cheap White gives the other side of this stack a 3 down skillset, a true RB1, and a dirt cheap price tag. White is one of my favorite value plays on the entire slate as a stand-alone (almost becoming one of my core picks). Pair him in a correlated stack? Yeah baby!!
Tyreke Hill/Mike Williams – Again, if taking an expensive WR, you are going to need some value somewhere. Tyreke has been consistent in MIA with Tua, receiving 25%-45% target share almost always. He even draws targets in the Red Zone (which we cannot really say about Jaylen Waddle yet). This game is expected to shootout making both teams’ WRs playable, especially together. Mike Williams is the less expensive pivot piece in LA, so he draws our focus in Week 1 to pay up for Tyreke should we choose this combination.
These selections encapsulate Ffootballgeek’s utmost favorites across all game formats on the main slate, defying price constraints and projected roster percentages. These pivotal core picks are poised to shine in cash lineups and serve as the bedrock of GPP core strategies, albeit not always converging in a single GPP lineup.
Featured Image:
Nov 27, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) scambles against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
